A guide to goal scorers betting
Goal scorer betting is self-explanatory. It’s simplicity is part of why it has always been so popular and there’s somewhat of a relationship between a punter and goal scorer they’re backing, they can also be great bets as part of multiples or same game multi’s/bet builder style bets. This post will help you in looking for good value goal scorers as well as some techniques and things to think about before you pick a certain goal scorer.
How to choose a goal scorer bet
As with any bet, everyone will have their own means and methods of picking a bet. Some will go off their own hunch for a goal scorer bet more so than when compared to other bets, hence why you often see ridiculous 40/1 goal scorer bets floating around on social media. But here’s a few things to think about before backing a player to score.
Firstly, stats, of course. This covers more than just how many goals that player has scored this season, although that is of course a pretty sturdy starting point. Across Europe there’s been a number of players who’ve found exceptional consistency in their respective leagues. Such as the likes of Erling Haaland, Robert Lewandowski and Kylian Mbappe. These 3 all aren’t far shy of a goal a game or better, so of course by the pure nature of the numbers they’d be a good bet – provided you’re happy to take under 2.0 anytime, most likely under 2.0 if they’re playing at home.
A good place to start is my Bet Builder Stats Packs I have out for all the big games.
You can apply similar methods of thinking to goal scorer betting as you do to betting on player shots. If you want to take someone who’s slightly outside the obvious picks then it’s time to dig in to the game and try and get an idea perhaps of where the chances are going to come from and therefore who could be on the end of them.
As mentioned in betting on shots, think about set pieces; if a team concedes more fouls, there will be more opportunities for a player who takes direct free kicks and also more opportunities for players who are good in the air. If a team is conceding a lot of free kicks out wide, that’s a huge increase in forays forward for the opposition centre halves. If that couples with a side who are either good at attacking set pieces/poor at defending them then it could be worth lining up a longer odds bet on one of the defenders.
A prime example of this came about this season when Bournemouth met Everton. Before this game Everton centre back Yerry Mina had had the most shots on target of any defender in the league and was dominating from set pieces in opposition territory. He was priced at 18/1 anytime I believe, he went on to score twice in that match; a sift through the stats could’ve provided a very profitable day for any eagle eyed punters.
Betting in-play on goal scorers
As with any form of bet, doing it in-play can have its positives and negatives. I think with goal scorers there’s actually far more positives, it can be a great way to get more assurance or information before making your choice.
What I mean by that is it allows you to analyse the situation further than you could just from the pre-match stats. This is where you need to apply your own football knowledge and take things in. Which team is dominant? Where are the chances falling and who to? Do one team look dangerous on the break or from set pieces? All these aspects are worth considering before diving in. The longer the game goes on, the better the odds are going to get. However just be wary for any impending substitutions; this season Kylian Mbappe has been substituted before 70 minutes more than any other PSG player, stats like that are well worth knowing.
Goal scorer bets as multiples
You can add goal scorer bets to accumulators, you could do multiple scorers on one bet, add them to bet builders or have a player to score more than one goal. There’s an array of possibilities.
Using them as an accumulator for games where a side is the heavy favourite can be a fantastic way to build a bet with more value. Say if Juventus were 1.2 to win at home, you could probably back someone like Ronaldo at 1.7-1.9, although still short odds for a goal scorer; if Juve dominate as they’re expected too then surely he’s in amongst the goals. A treble or more at those kind of odds could get you some really handsome returns.
When doing multiples in particular, it’s worth considering the ‘void’ option that some bookies have. Some will allow a selection to be void if a player doesn’t start, which I’d always be inclined to do. If you want t be certain though, just wait for team news before making any decisions as this may also open up a different option for a pick. Some book makers also allow you to back a goal scorer each way, so you can back them first goal scorer but if they score anytime the bet still wins just at greatly reduced odds.
Adding goal scorers to same game multi’s or bet builder style bets is very popular and can be a great way to build a fun bet, particularly for a game you’re watching. I would just make sure it doesn’t contradict any of your other selections. Such as if you’re going under x amount of goals or if you’re backing a team handicap it would be a daft to back a goal scorer from the opposing team.
