One of the most interesting wagers that have come into the market in recent times is Next Manager betting. It can be looked at in a variety of ways including which manager in a certain league/competition get the sack, to which manager will be the next to take over at a specific club.
Traditionally these markets gain a huge amount of interest when there’s a ton of pressure mounting on a specific manager and when there’s a vacant position out there needing to be filled. Nowadays managers are coming and going from clubs at an increasingly fast pace and therefore the market is nearly always thriving.
Punters feel the urge to go to this market for a range of reasons. Sometimes it’s because they’ve heard a rumour, read a news article or have wishful thinking that a manager is close to being sacked/or appointed by a club. The betting companies will act fast to any news/information they receive so a lot of the time it’s about trying to beat them and get as much value as possible with a bet.
Next Manager to Get the Sack
This is often referred to as as ‘The Sack Race’ and is the most traditional type of Next Manager betting. As the name suggests, in this market you’re placing a bet on the manager that you think will be the next to be sacked/leave the football club that he/she is in charge of.
Nowadays managers are under pressure like never before and are constantly having to deal with questions concerning their job. The odds will change every day based on up to date news, rumours and information regarding the future of manager roles.
I suggest that you’re cautious with the wording that each bookmaker uses as it’s becoming more common for managers to leave due to ‘mutual consent’ and some bookmakers might not pay out of certain types of departures depending upon how they’ve worded their market.
Odds are always changing in this market as new information/rumours surface. Knowledge is one of the big things in this market, if you’re wanting to beat the bookmakers you’ll need to be a step ahead of them when it comes to information such as club meetings etc.
Next Manager to Take Over at X Club
Another popular wager on the market is the ‘Next Permanent Manager’. In this market, you’re placing a bet on a certain person to be appointed as the next permanent manager of a specific club. It’s worthwhile noting that caretaker managers don’t count towards the betting but most bookmakers in their small print state that they will pay out on a caretaker/interim manager if they have taken charge of at least 10 competitive games. Something worthwhile remembering.
In this ever-changing nature of football, some of the top teams like Manchester United will almost permanently have a Next Manager market running. They’ve got one open right now despite Ole Gunnar Solskjær holding the position. The market tends to be relatively stable, that is until a new rumour comes out of nowhere.
As soon as a job vacancy opens up at a relatively big club, the market is likely to explode into epic proportions as the rumours of a replacement start to really heat up. When a vacancy first opens odds will change by the minute. It’s common to see a number of managers going from complete outsiders to odds-on favourites in no time whatsoever.
How to place a next manager to be sacked/leave bet
If you’re wanting to bet on a next manager market then you will need to have some sort of logic/information in order to back up your bet. Please don’t just jump straight in and bet blind. If you’re looking at the sack race then I suggest you look at clubs who seem to sack their managers on a regular basis. If a club is well known for doing so then there could be an advantage to be gained in this market. If you look at the Premier League then I would say Everton, Watford and West Ham United are three teams who are more often than others changing their manager.
Another thing to think about along the same lines is the manager themselves. Are they the sort of person that tends to move on from a post after only a short period in charge? Jose Mourinho is a classic example of this. He’s managed nine football clubs in his time as a manager and on average he’s only lasted at each club two years. He tends to burn bridges rather quickly and leave before he’s pushed.
The final consideration revolves around a manager’s relative success. Is the club that he’s managing really struggling? Are they flirting with relegation? If so, it’s entirely possible that those in charge might decide to pull the plug before it’s too late.
This is why the managers of clubs around the relegation zone tend to feature most prominently in the Next To Leave market. On the other hand, if they’re doing really well then might an international side come calling? Those managers that are particularly proud of their nationality might be most at risk of leaving should their country’s football association decide to give them a ring. Alternatively, if a bigger club like Manchester City, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich are interested then that’s a hard call to resist.
How to place a next permanent manager bet
The first thing you’ll want to do is look at the size of the club. If you’re talking about a team that is usually at the top end of the table then it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll be looking to appoint a manager who is more used to saving teams from relegation. Likewise, a team that struggles to stay in the division is unlikely to be able to appoint someone that is in the group of ‘best manager in the world’.
The noises that a football club makes about its future can also help you narrow down a list of possible appointees, too. If they’re talking about wanting to establish a specific brand of football and no longer play defensively then you’re unlikely to see Tony Pulis throwing his (baseball) hat into the ring. However, If the owners are talking about survival being the most important point for them, then someone like Pulis or Sam Allyerdace might be the better fit. They’re never going to be legacy football managers but they’ve both got a track record of keeping teams up which is commonly why you’ll see those types of appointments in the second half of the season.