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Football Betting Stats
In this guide we will go through a variety of tips for researching stats and data to help you become as well informed as possible when betting. There are a myriad of markets and leagues to bet on when it comes to the football and a large variety of qualitative factors and quantitative statistics you must take into consideration before determining whether there is any value in a certain bet.
Betting stats - Form
An obvious place that most people start is winning or losing form. Most will look at the last 6 games as a fair reflection of where a team is at, some may take a longer term view and whilst results have to looked at it’s worth looking whether the side has been deservedly on a good/poor run (more on how you can do that later).
One thing you could decipher from form alone is the psychological impact it could have on a side. For instance, if a side who are in a rut after losing 5 games in a row their confidence is likely to be lower than it would be if they have won their previous 5 games. That lack of confidence could lead to fragility, mistakes and a lack of faith in front of goal.
You’ll usually be able to see that the market price is often reflecting a sides’ form given most of those punting for or against them so there’s further depth you’ll have to go with your research to determine whether you’ve found yourself a value bet.
Advanced Underlying Performance Data Metrics
More than just basic form alone goes into the bookmakers’ thought process and algorithms when it comes to pricing a match up. Many put more faith in the performance data with stats such as Expected Goals (xG), shot volume, shot area, final third entries and many more all playing a part in determining odds.
Such data has often been behind a paywall and some more advanced stuff still is but there are a handful of websites that can be of use when you’re looking into the more detailed data stats.
Infogol is a website and app that is a must for all football fans as it gives a pre-match selection along a value rating out of 5 on the discrepancy of the price of a team to win or a goals based selection compared to their data model. For instance, Infogol may make Over 2.5 goals a 4/5 shot based on their underlying performance data but if 11/10 is available on that bet it would be a high value selection.
So not only does Infogol provide you with xG data, tables, shot maps and game-by-game rundowns it will also point you towards a value bet that you can try do more digging on. Live stats and shot maps are also a handy feature if you’re looking to bet in-play. Leagues available range from the English Championship to Brazilian Serie A and Major League Soccer.
One brand new website that has been launched this season is ‘The Analyst’ by well respected data collators Opta. The Analyst has xG figures for the major 5 European leagues as well as the Scottish Premiership and the entire EFL which is all free to access for punters to help them with their decision making.
What’s more, this data is split into xG from open play, xG from set-pieces and even into direct speed (How quickly a team progresses the ball forward), passes per sequences, pressing and a whole lot more. You may be thinking how can such detailed data be used to decipher whether a team will win a game or not but if you trade off these figures and statistics against each other to get a sense of how a game will play out.
Alternative football betting stats sites
One great resource away from the talk of expected goals and advanced data is the easy to read and well laid out AdamChoi website. There’s a list of markets ranging from goals, corners and cards and you can filter via the league you want to look into. Many people like to bet on the card markets for instance instead of both teams to score and those looking to specialise in these markets can get great use out of this website which also works cleanly on a mobile or tablet device.
You can use the comparison tab to select a fixture on a certain date and a comprehensive stats pack will appear which covers goals split into 1st and 2nd half to team booking points. It makes it much less time consuming than if you were to do all of this manually and wherever you can get a free to use resource like this it’s certainly worth taking advantage of.
Many football fans will have heard of the website WhoScored which is also available as a mobile app. WhoScored is a great resource to read match previews, get the lowdown on a fixture and check up to date injury and suspension news, another key factor in your research.
Potential XI’s and formations are listed as well as a run down of some key stats and trends between two sides facing off. There’s also the player and team statistics tab where you can see which players and teams are averaging the most shots, passes, tackles and much more.
It’s always worth looking at past prices and price movements and OddsPortal have archived closing odds for thousands of previous games. If you want to see what odds Manchester United went off at in their last 6 meetings with Liverpool for example you can find out through the OddsPortal website. At the end of the day betting is about probabilities and price is king so focusing on the odds specifically is worth taking a decent look at.
There’s plenty of good quality content that is available online to help you find betting stats and having a portfolio of well respected and reliable sites to go to in order to form your opinion will give you a much greater opportunity at being more profitable. Supplement your qualitative research with qualitative information you can garner from club websites, local press and logistical factors such as travel to give yourself the most rounded approach to finding an attractive angle in.