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Bolton vs Fleetwood

Calendar 15th August
Football icon kick off 19:45
Football icon Bolton to win
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Top of the league, two wins from two, life is good for Bolton as they look to make it three from three against Fleetwood.

Bolton have made their chances count early on, scoring 6 from a combined xG of 1.90 in the first two games. Meaning Bolton are converting at a high rate, turning half chances into goals. They are dominant on the ball as well, averaging 70.5% possession in their back to back 3-0 victories against Lincoln and Cheltenham.

Plenty of players are playing their part but there are two standouts. The first will not surprise Bolton fans, top scorer last season – Dion Charles. He bagged 16 in 38 starts last year, and the main striker already has two at this early stage.

The next is Victor Adeboyejo, and the 25-year-old is looking to break into the first team after making just 16 appearances last time out. Adeboyejo is repaying his manager’s favor already, scoring and assisting in his two starts as he looks to cement his name on the team sheet.

On the other hand, Fleetwood have not started brightly. To their credit, they managed to salvage a draw from a losing position away at Carlisle on the opening day, but since then have lost to Port Vale and then recently against Cambridge.

One stat of note is that Fleetwood’s possession is up from 49% last year to 61% this season. It actually seems that more of the ball is hurting Fleetwood. Without the technical players to play a possession style game, 50% of their goals conceded this season have come immediately following a misplaced pass at the back. These kind of avoidable goals may explain the trend in xG this season.

Last year, Fleetwood’s xG was 1.22 per game, holding opponents to an xG of 1.07. This year, whilst they are still creating chances (1.24 xG), they’re giving away far too many at the other end, with opponents mustering 1.35 xG against Fleetwood this season.

The head to head encounters are not encouraging for Fleetwood either. Bolton won both games last season by an aggregate of 4-1, extending their winning streak over the visitors to 3. Bolton have also won 7 of the 8 competitive meetings between these sides and I think they’re in for another win in this one.

Oxford City vs Chesterfield

Calendar 15th August
Football icon kick off 19:45
Football icon Chesterfield to win either half
Arrow down

This is relegation favourites, versus the favourites for the title. Chesterfield are as short as 11/10 for the National League title, their opponents Oxford, are 250/1. That paints a picture of the gap in quality between these two sides.

Chesterfield are the strongest side in the league. Their squad is incredible. They’re brimming with football league quality and have began this campaign with 2 wins, scoring 4 goals in both games and racking up a huge average xG of 2.50.

With Ollie Banks in midfield and a plethora of forward options, including Will Grigg, this side will score a serious number of goals this season, and there will for sure be games where they rattle in 5, 6, or even 7.

Liam Mandeville already has 3 in 2, Will Grigg, Joe Quigley and Ryan Colclough have all also been on target.

Oxford are 0/2 so far, and struggling massively with the step up from the National league South. They conceded 5 on opening day to Aldershot, who racked up a 3.21 xG.

They were then beaten 1-0 by Rochdale. City managed just 1 shot on target, had only 35% of possession and mustered up just 0.35 xG to Dale’s 1.79.

If Oxford don’t go down this season, I’ll be blown away and I can’t see a world where Chesterfield don’t come out on top in this one, and we’ve got 2 chances by taking the ‘win either half’ market.

Stake £59.40
Potential Returns £113.40
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