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Hour glass kick off 19:45 17 Oct

England vs Italy Bet Builder

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England vs Italy

Calendar 17th October
Football icon kick off 19:45
Football icon Over 1.5 Goals
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Italy face a tough run in. Lose to England, and they have to take points against a North Macedonia side that they’ve already dropped points to in this campaign, and a Ukraine side who will more than likely be level with them on points at worst.

Perhaps this isn’t the game to target for the Italians, but they need goals, and an expansive game will leave them open against one of the most efficient attacking outlets in international football.

The opening round of fixtures saw England run out 2-1 winners on that day, and the goals have continued to flow (in both nets), for both sides.

The pair have maintained a 100% record when it comes to over 1.5 goals, and given that England can borderline guarantee qualification here, and that Italy desperately need points, I don’t see that changing.

England have netted a staggering 16 in just 5 games, and are averaging 3.60 match goals. The Italian’s 10 goals in 4 shows that they’re capable of bagging themselves 1 here, as they did against England in March.

But, it’s the fact that they’ve conceded to the likes of North Macedonia and Ukraine in qualification already that has me interested. England will absolutely find joy, and with both sides coming out and having a go, goals look likely, and over 1.5 is a great price here.

Football icon England 4+ Shots on Target
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Another selection that landed when these two last met back in March, and that’s despite England being down to 10 men.

Now, think about what they’re capable of with a full XI for 90 minutes, at home, against an Italy side that need to come out and have a go. Sounds good doesn’t it?

Southgate’s men managed 4 shots on target in the reverse fixture, and their average across the board in qualifying has been ridiculous.
6.80 shots on target P/90 is a great return, and 4+ is a feat they’ve managed in each of their qualifiers so far.

Italy may only be conceding 2.40 shots on target P/90, but I’d be hugely encouraged by the fact that much weaker nations are still managing efforts on target against them.

Malta managed 2 against Italy back in March, with Ukraine and North Macedonia both having 3 shots on target in the last international break.

England of course have much more quality at their disposal, so I expect them to get the job done.

Football icon Italy 2+ Cards
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Italy really could do with a win here, but at a bare minimum, they can’t really afford to lose.

They’ll do anything that they can to keep themselves in the game, and viewers of Italian football will know full well that they’re quite happy to kick, and scrap.

Italy picked up 3 cards in their opening encounter with England, but with the added pressure here, I can see that number increasing.

They’re averaging just 1.60 cards per game, but their 11.00 fouls P/90 would suggest that there’s room for more in a game like this.

There are a good number of candidates as well, with the likes of Barella, Mancini, and Bastoni all averaging well in excess of 1.00 fouls P/90 amongst others.

With so much on the line up against a quality opponent, 2 or more cards looks a solid addition here.

Football icon Italy 3+ Corners
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The price for Italy corners is huge here.

They’re by far and away the best team in the group when it comes to corners, and given that they really need to have a go and get something out of this game, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get a few.

They managed 7 in their last meeting with England, and whilst nobody else in the group has that kind of quality, they’re still averaging 7.20 per game, evidence that they’re consistent.

3 seems a low bar, and you’d be right to think that. It’s absolutely achievable, and the Italians have had at least 3 corners in each of their qualifying appearances thus far.

England might only be conceding 2.00 corners per game, but it’s worth thinking about the extent to which they’ve dominated their games so far.

The Italy game in March remains the only fixture in which they’ve conceded 3 or more, but there’s every chance it happens again here.
Spalletti’s side have a whole host of direct threats in forward areas as well. The likes of Berardi and Keane are averaging 2.54 and 4.76 corners P/90 at club level, and with Di Lorenzo and Dimarco offering support from fullback, Italy have more than enough to trouble England in wide areas and win those corners.

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