Southampton vs Leicester
Armstrong is Southampton’s leading goalscorer through 5 games, with 4 goals scored and he’s also chipped in with an assist.
The English Center Froward takes 2.86 shots per 90 minutes and manages to get 1.02 shots on goal per 90 too.
Armstrong has recorded at least one shot on target in four of The Saint’s five league fixtures so far. The only exception to this being a really uncharacteristic 5-0 defeat away at Sunderland ahead of the international break.
Armstrong has been shown to be a threat from open play but he is also on penalty taking duty. He converted twice from the spot against Norwich so there is little doubt that he will be stepping up again should Southampton win a foul in the box.
The standout man for The Foxes early on this season, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (KDH) tops the charts in Average Rating, Goals+Assists, total shots per game, and key passes per game. He really does it all.
KDH has stepped into the gap vacated by James Maddison, playing mostly on the left of a midfield three and getting forward with regularity. This is apparent when we compare his numbers from last year, where he was playing mostly in a DM double pivot, to this season so far.
The amount of shots taken has trebled from 1.02 to 3.60!
0.23 shots on goal last year is just 23.1% of efforts. This year, 1.20 shots on target is a significant improvement, up to 33.3% of total shots.
Following a good strong 41 appearance season last out for Coventry. Manchester City’s Callum Doyle secured another loan move in the summer to Leicester. The 19 year old Left Back has played every minute of the campaign so far and has put in some very strong performances this year.
Doyle is joint second in Tackles Won with 13, tied with Ipswich’s Sam Morsy and just one behind Morsy’s midfield partner Massimo Luongo (14).
Callum’s eagerness to impress Pep has been a cause for concern though, Doyle leads Leicester in fouls per 90 with 3.00. Additionally, Doyle also leads champ in fouls committed with 15.
It’s likely Doyle will face either Sekou Mara as he looks to replace Nathan Tella down the Southampton right. Mara has drawn 5 fouls this season in limited minutes, 4.17 fouls drawn per 90 minutes. There’s also a chance of picking up a foul against an overlapping Kyle Walker Peters, who leads the division in fouls drawn with 15 (3.00 per 90).
BTTS has come in four of Southampton’s last five league games. The attack is doing it’s job but things are as shaky at the back as they were towards the end of last season.
In attack, The Saints take the 3rd most shots per 90 with 17.8, 5.99 of these efforts are on target, the 4th highest in the league. They score 2 goals per game (the 2nd most) from an xG of 2.33, and with this discrepancy you could accuse the hosts of being a bit wasteful in front of goal.
Defensively, Southampton are conceding 12.2 shots per game at a 41% accuracy. They are allowing 2.40 goals on average from an xG of just 1.60, meaning they are conceding far more than they should be, almost one extra goal per game than expected! This is supported when we see that Southampton lead the league in opponents goals per shots against with 0.18, meaning for every five shots an opponent takes you would expect Southampton to concede a goal.
Leicester have seen BTTS come in three of their last five league games. Leicester have kept the goals conceded down in comparison with their opponents but have just a solitary clean sheet for their efforts.
The Foxes conceded 1.39 goals per game from an xGA of 1.47. So whilst they are slightly out performing their expected goals against statistic, the amount of goals conceded is still over one goal per game. Leicester allow 13.28 shots per game with 4.32 testing the keeper.
Going forward is better for Leicester, getting off 18.2 shots per 90 is the 2nd highest in the Championship, 5.40 of these shots hit the target which ranks 4th highest. Leicester score 1.37 goals per game from an xG of 1.44, their production is in line with the quality of chances created.
BTTS came in the reverse fixture last season with Southampton taking 3pts in their 1-2 at the King Power. BTTS has also come in four of the last five head to head encounters so I like both teams to score in this one.