AIK Stocholm vs BK Hacken
In this fixture we see the lowly 13th placed AIK Stockholm come up against the high flying 3rd place Hacken, with both teams not being strangers to goals in their fixtures.
Both teams will be desperate to pick up points albeit for different reasons. AIK Stockholm are currently (and somewhat surprisingly) lingering in the relegation zone having only picked up 10 points in 13 games and are losing precious ground to the teams above them.
Hacken, on the other hand, are flying high. They are nicely placed in the Europa Conference League positions having racked up 29 points in 14 games.
Hacken have the highest average goals per game in the Swedish Allsvenskan with an impressive 3.64! and although AIK Stockholm matches are seeing a not too shabby 2.15 goals per game average themselves (even better at home at 2.33 per game).
Looking through the season so far, even thought their seasons are turning out quite different in terms of standings, one thing they do have in common is the goals that their games are producing.
Hacken so far this season have seen 12 in 14 of their fixtures finishing over 1.5 goals and for AIK Stockholm they’ve seen 9 in 13 finishing over 1.5 goals, however this increases when AIK play at home where they’ve seen 5 of the last 6 games have been over 1.5.
A player to watch out for is Bénie Traoré who is in scintillating form this season. In 14 matches, he has scored a very impressive 12 goals and currently leads the Top Scorer charts in the Swedish Allsvenskan, something which he will be determined to continue to lead for the remaining half of the season. This fixture will be a perfect match for him to add to his numbers.
Columbus Crew vs New York City FC
Columbus have been beaten just once on home soil, winning 8/11 matches. They’ve scored an incredible 29 goals at Lower.com field, the most in the Eastern Conference.
They’ve won 5 on the spin at home, and now face an NYCFC team who will pose problems, but The Crew should have that cutting edge to turn this in to another 3 points.
NYC’s issue is converting their draws in to wins. Depending on whether or not you’re a glass half full or glass half empty kind of person, depends how you interpret their form.
They haven’t been beaten in 7 MLS match, impressive, right? Not for me. They’ve won just 1 match in that run, a 1-0 victory at Montreal.
The reality is even worse, this side have won just 1 of their last 13 outings in the league. On the road, they’ve scored just 9 goals in 12 matches, and accumulated just 12 points. Managing that one solitary win.
It’s no surprise with those stats, that their underlying metrics follow suit. This season, NYC have averaged an xG of just 0.84 on the road.
Columbus, by comparison, average 1.84 xG at home and have converted that in to 2.64 goals per game. Thanks to the talent of Lucas Zelarayan and Cucho Hernandez.
The 1.75 on offer for Columbus to win, is too good for me to turn down.
Toronto vs St Louis City
Had you priced this game at the beginning of the season, with nothing to go off except feeling and the two squad lists at hand, I’d imagine Toronto would’ve been odds on favourites.
However, here we are, with newcomers St Louis travelling to Canada as favourites, after a storming start to their MLS legacy. A comfortable 2-0 home win over The Rapids at the weekend landed us a treble, as they maintained their spot at the top of the Western Conference.
Their expansive, high energy style has really shone and made them a nightmare for MLS defences. Even with the loss of Joao Klauss after just 7 games, St Louis have rallied and continued to impress.
Away results are hard to come by in the MLS, but St Louis have gave a good account of themselves on the road, with only RSL taking more away points so far this season.
Despite forking out huge wages on the likes of Lorenzo Insigne and Fernando Bernadeschi, Toronto have woefully underperformed and they were absolutely obliterated by Orlando in midweek as they fell to a 4-0 defeat and mustered just 0.13 xG, as the Canadians failed to have a single shot on target.
Toronto are now 7 without a win, and have lost their last 4, scoring just 1 goal across those matches. St Louis’s last away match saw them turn over San Jose, who were unbeaten at home before they arrived, so confidence will be high here and they can tighten their grip on top spot, especially with The Sounders facing a tough trip to a rejuvenated Whitecaps side.
Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Two Brazilian giants clash on Sunday morning when third-place Flamengo makes the journey to Sao Paulo to face fourth-place Palmeiras in Serie A.
Neither of these teams have an issue finding the back of the net.
Flamengo tops the league tally for goals, having scored 26 goals in 13 games. Whereas Palmeiras sit joint second on 24 goals.
Palmeiras also have the joint highest xG in Serie A with 1.96.
Despite losing just once in their last nine league games, Flamengo’s defensive record is shocking.
They’ve conceded 17 goals already this season. And their average xGA is 1.77, which is one of the worst records in the league.
Just look at some of their recent score lines on the road: 2-3, 4-0, 1-4, 2-3, 2-1.
83% of Flamengo’s away games this season have finished with both teams scoring.
This also matches Palmeiras’s 83% BTTS record this season when playing at home.
These two teams have met 12 times since 2018, with eight of them finishing with both teams finding the back of the net.
Asane vs Skeid
We’ve got a classic relegation scrap on our hands in the OBOS league on Sunday afternoon.
Fourteen games into the new season, and both Asane and Skeid sit bottom of the table with just 10 points each.
Needless to say, both teams will see this game as their golden opportunity to finally turn their fortunes around by grabbing a much-needed win. Expect both of them to get stuck in.
It’s their defensive record that is letting both teams down. Asane have conceded 23 goals this season, which averages 1.6 per game.
Whereas Skeid has conceded an incredible 32 goals so far, which is by far the highest in the league, and averages to 2.28 goals per game.
Given their place in the table, you’d think both teams would be awful at finding the back of the net. But this is not the case.
Asane and Skeid have scored 18 and 17 goals this season. This is comparable to sides in mid-table.
In fact, Asane forward Mame Mor Ndiaye has bagged seven goals this season, the joint fourth highest in the league.
And both teams create more chances than their table position gives them credit for. Skeid have an xG of 1.19 and Asane average 1.36.
Both teams score 79% of the time Asane plays. A record that jumps to 100% when they play at home.
Both teams score in 50% of Skeid’s games, but given that the two teams are in dire need of a win, score plenty of goals, and have shoddy defenses, I reckon they pick up at least one here.
Tromso vs Valarenga
Tromso are 2nd in the Eliteserien, and the only side within touching distance of Bodo Glimt.
Their arch rivals lead the table by 6 points, but Tromso’s stunning recent form has given their fans serious hope of a memorable season.
Tromso have won 5 straight league matches. The best form in the division.
Valarenga are having a shocking campaign and have performed well below par. They’ve only won 3 matches so far and recent form has been abysmal, they’ve now lost 4 league games on the spin So this remote trip is far from ideal, against such a confident side.
With 2 sides, who are in very contrasting form, I can’t ignore the 1.50 price available on draw no bet for the hosts – this means if they draw, this selection is void, if they win, it’s a winner in the acca.