3rd of February, 25/1 Premier League Shots Special
I’m having another go at a Premier League shots on target special tonight, I’ve backed this 25/1 bet with a £5 stake. There’s 5 players involved, you can load them into your betslip by clicking here.
Haven’t got a Betfair account? Sign up > HERE < and you’ll get a £20 risk free bet to use on my special for tonight. Basically means if you register an account and place up to £20 on it as your first bet, you’ll get your stake back as cash if it loses.
Check out my thoughts behind each player below:
It’s a trip to Burnley tonight for Gundogan and his Man City teammates. They should be well up for it after Man United’s 9-0 win over Southampton last night, that result put the two Manchester clubs level on points at the top of the Premier League. Until this evening you’d think…
First up on my special I’m backing Gundogan for a shot on target. You could say he’s been an underrated component of Pep Guardiola’s team this season, the German international has bagged 7 goals in 15 appearances from central midfield.
In those 15 matches, Gundogan has registered 11 shots on target which is a respectable amount from his position. He’s ahead of Phil Foden, Gabriel Jesus and Bernardo Silva in the rankings.
As far as the odds go, Gundogan is one of the few players with any value going for them. Obviously Mahrez and Sterling are great bets but not for me at 1.20. It was a 5-0 win for City when these sides last met, let’s hope for something similar tonight with plenty of chances.
After Leicester’s recent defeat against Leeds, they’ll be looking for an instant and positive response against struggling Fulham tonight. Also with star man Jamie Vardy out injured, it’s down to talisman James Maddison to step up and make things happen. He’s the next on my list to have a shot on target this evening.
Maddison is the player who makes things tick, in 19 appearances he has scored 6 goals and provided 5 assists, making a contribution in 29% of Leicester’s goals so far this season. He’s had 10 shots on target which works out as one every other game.
The midfielder has scored in 3 of his last 5 Premier League outings so that’s a good run of form and it’ll hopefully continue against Fulham. We all know that James Maddison has a wand of a right foot and could score from a free-kick at any moment. Also, with Jamie Vardy ruled out, Maddison will step up as the secondary penalty taker – Nice!
What a signing Raphinha has been and what a coup for Leeds with all due respect. The Brazilian forward sacked off Champions League football with Rennes to move to West Yorkshire, but that’s what can happen with the pulling force of Marcelo Bielsa and his mouth-watering style of football.
Raphinha had been listed as ‘doubtful’ ahead of tonight’s match along with Patrick Bamford however I still expect them both to feature against Everton. I took a quick look at yesterday’s press conference with Bielsa and he said that he is relaxed about both injuries and they’re less of a concern.
Raphinha has had 11 shots on target in 15 appearances which is very decent, there’s only Patrick Bamford and Rodrigo above him in those standings. You might remember his goal when Everton and Leeds last met at Goodison Park back in November, he beat Pickford from well outside of the box – he’s not afraid of trying his luck from distance clearly.
Trent Alexander Arnold
Reigning Premier League Champions Liverpool take on relegation battling Brighton at Anfield tonight. I’m expecting the hosts to dominate possession and have the far superior attacking intent in this one.
With Trent Alexander Arnold liking to bomb forward from full-back and take Liverpool’s set pieces, I think he looks good value for a shot on target. He did just score in Liverpool’s 3-1 win at Spurs Thursday gone too, advancing into the penalty area as Liverpool were attacking and thumping home a loose ball.
He averages 1.4 shots per game in the Premier League this season. Might not sound like much but there’s only 4 players who average higher and you guessed it all their main attackers – Salah (3.4), Mane (3.1), Firmino (2.3) and Jota (2.2).
Worth noting that Brighton average 11.9 fouls per game this season, the 6th highest in the League. All it takes is for TAA to test the keeper from one and we have a tick.
Where to start with Jack Grealish? He’s obviously been the stand out player for Villa this season and the biggest reason they’re doing as well as they are to date. He’s got 6 goals and 9 assists to his name in 19 appearances.
He’s a danger for any defence when going forward having had the highest number of touches inside the opposition penalty area (130) this season than any other Premier League player and averages 2.3 shots per game which is the joint 12th highest in the league – not bad at all for winger/attacking midfielder.
He’s such a talent and I’m expecting him to get plenty of opportunities tonight against a West Ham side who have conceded 5 goals in their last 2 games. He’s also one of Villa’s known penalty and free kick takers.
18+, Please Gamble Responsibly
This bet is priced pretty highly at around 25/1, at those odds it’s by no means a banker so please stake sensibly. I’ve gone for a fiver on this one to enjoy the PL action this evening.