7th of April – Champions League Double
Another couple of decent Champions League matches on this evening. My beloved Chelsea and what should be a cracker between Bayern Munich and PSG. You can load my double by clicking here on mobile.
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Bayern Munich v PSG
· Just one Real Madrid card separated us from a healthy UCL double winner last night. With another couple of tasty looking fixtures coming up tonight I thought it would be rude not to have another go!
· We start in Munich in what is a re-run of last season’s UCL final as reigning champions Bayern Munich host PSG this evening at the Allianz Arena.
· I am expecting a classic here with both sides blessed with extraordinary attacking talent. Unfortunately there is no Lewandowski through injury but the likes of Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, Angel Di Maria, Kingsley Coman and Leroy Sane should all be involved here.
· Bayern games almost always guarantee goals with their Bundesliga fixtures this season averaging a massive 4.22 goals per game. They also have also seen over 2.5 goals feature in 22 of their 27 league games (81%), comfortably the highest percentage in the Bundesliga.
· Bayern are encouraged to play a high defensive line and press aggressively in a bid to win the ball high up the pitch in the oppositions final third.
· They will look to do the same tonight leaving themselves susceptible to the counter which is always a risk when you are playing a side containing Kylian Mbappe.
· The PSG striker has already shown what he can do against a high-line following his hat-trick away in Barcelona in the last round. He thrives in games like this and I think he looks fantastic value to register 2+ shots on target tonight.
· He averages a touch under 2 shots on target per game in Ligue 1 where teams often play a low block to stifle him and his terrific pace in behind. He is afforded much more room in the UCL and I expect him to get plenty of joy against Bayern here.
· Another player who stands out for me in this one is Leroy Sane. In the absence of both Lewandowski and Serge Gnabry this evening, Bayern will look to Sane as one of the main goal threats this evening.
· He has had an impressive season, particularly in Europe where he already has 3 goals in his 6 UCL apps. He will also likely complete the 90 minutes with not many experienced replacements available to Hansi Flick tonight in the absence of Gnabry and Lewa.
· He averages well over 2 shot attempts per 90 minutes and you may remember from his time at Man City he possesses wonderful shooting technique and is encouraged to shoot from distance. He is regularly among the candidates for Bayern when it comes to taking free-kicks too. Just a couple attempts on goal needed to get this selection ticked off.
Porto v Chelsea
· The other game of the night takes place in Seville with travel to Portugal still forbidden in Europe due to Covid travel protocols. Porto following their heroic qualification against Juventus in the last round host the mighty Chelsea this evening!
· While most neutrals will understandably have their eyes fixed on the glamour tie of the night in Munich, I will of course be following the Blues as they face a tricky tie against Porto but one that in reality I expect them to qualify from.
· Is a really tough game to call and it could swing either way especially with Chelsea likely still reeling and lacking in confidence from their embarrassing 5-2 defeat at home to West Brom at the weekend.
· Mason Mount surely has to come back in to the starting 11 for this one. He came off the bench at HT on Saturday to score Chelsea’s 2nd and for me has undoubtedly been one of the players of the season for the club.
· Mount is actually joint top scorer for Chelsea and has really brought goals in to his game in recent months. He has exceptional shooting technique and will be one of the first names on the list for free kicks tonight.
· He has attempted 60 shots this season, only Werner (63) has attempted more at the club. He averages well over 2 shots per 90 and he looks great value to attempt a couple of shots this evening.
· The second player who stuck out to me in this one was from the hosts and it is Porto striker Moussa Marega. He was impressive against Juventus in the previous round and statistically looks exceptional value to register a shot on target this evening.
· He will lead the line for the Portuguese hosts and with fellow striker Taremi suspended, he is unlikely to be substituted with few other experienced options available to Porto coach Sergio Conceicao from the bench.
· He averages well over a shot on target per 90 and with Chelsea looking so defensively fragile at the moment I expect him to get some joy tonight.
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