I had a £5 free bet builder to use on tonight’s match so have stuck it on this:
If you’re joining, read my write up below before making up your own mind.
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After an embarrassing start to the Nations League, England will look to get their campaign back on track with victory at Molineux on Tuesday Night. Sitting at the foot of the table without a win and just one goal scored, the home side tonight have a point to prove if they are to challenge at the top of the table.
Hungary ran out victorious in the reverse fixture just 10 days ago, thanks to a Dominik Szoboszlai Penalty condemning England to their only defeat and Hungary’s only victory so far. A dark horse side, the Hungarians took points off France and Germany in the Euros and have already drawn with Germany again in this Nations League. With a win % of 45% in his role, Marco Rossi’s Hungary side are not easy to break down and this won’t be a walkover for England.
England will have to go full strength tonight to make this a statement victory and end this run of poor form. With one of the best and deepest squads in Europe, England have endless amounts of talent giving more room for rotation whereas Hungary lack the depth. I expect them to take the game to Hungary on home turf which should provide an entertaining spectacle for a bet builder.
Harry Kane to Score @ 1.67
Despite jokingly suggesting a switch to professional golf in his pre-match press conference, England captain Harry Kane is flying at the peak of his game and reached 50 England goals against Germany in game week 2. After a well-deserved rest for the starting XI against Italy, Kane is expected to return to lead the line for the Three Lions tonight, thirsty for more goals.
The England and Spurs skipper has played well over 5000 minutes this year in all competitions and registered 49 goal contributions, including 39 goals. With over half of these goal contributions in the Premier League, Kane was pivotal to Spurs top 4 push, combining superbly with winger Heung Min Son.
That’s where Kane differs in quality from most traditional strikers in world football. Kane’s finishing ability as a number 9 is immense but he is also one of the best distributors in world football. For Spurs, Kane has notched up 8 league assists but on the international stage, he prefers to be the main man. This year, he has 12 goals in just over 700 minutes at a goal every 60 minutes for England, including two hat tricks.
Today provides a perfect opportunity for Kane to close up on Wayne Rooney’s international goal record for England. Hungary operate in a 3-4-3 formation, which England matched last time however they are expected to revert back to a back 4 today.
With Saka and Sterling combining with whatever pair of top class England full backs Southgate puts out, Hungary’s wing-backs will be overran and the outside centre backs will be forced to cover, leaving Kane isolated against central centre back, Willi Orban. Particularly later in the game, when a tired Hungarian side are dominated by quality, England should be able to create this overload presenting Kane with plenty of opportunities. Not shy of shooting with 3.85 Shots per 90 and 1.66 SOT per 90, I expect Kane to trouble back up keeper Denes Dilbusz and beat him at least once tonight.
Hungary to Receive The Most Cards @ 1.67
The feel-good story of Nations League group A3, Hungary have proved a tough side to break down recently, particularly at home. 4 points from games against Germany and England at home have shown the importance of home-field advantage while defeat in Italy where they were dominated shows how Hungary struggle more on the road.
Often favouring to soak up the pressure and hit on the counter with the likes of Szoboszlai in their front 3, the Hungarians have sent 33%, 43% and 43% possession in their last 3 games despite picking up positive results in 2 of these 3 games. At home, in the last year, England average over 60% possession allowing their visitors to average 2.44 yellows against per 90 as they frustrate the opposition with their patient style, also drawing 13.11 fouls per 90. The more inexperienced sides have been prone to more yellow cards as they tire through the 90 struggling to contain England’s depth in quality.
The referee tonight is Clément Turpin, a referee in the Ligue 1, Champions League, Euros and WC qualifiers. Turpin averages almost 25 fouls per game for almost 4 yellows per game in Ligue 1, both extremely high rates which when combined with England’s fouls and cards against record should lead Hungary to have cards a plenty tonight. Furthermore, he averages 0.4 penalties per 90, which should assist Kane’s chance of scoring in relation to the first leg of our bet.
I like Hungary to have Over 1.5 Cards at Odds of 1.5 but I find better value in Hungary to have the Most Cards @ 1.67. The Nations League hasn’t seen many cards this year, so Hungary are more likely to have multiple cards unlike England who average just 1.1 cards for. England’s switch to a back 4, where they are more reliable, alongside home advantage makes me think they are unlikely to match their total of 2 cards from the reverse fixture, leading Hungary to have the most cards per their average of 2.3 per 90.
Zsolt Nagy to be Carded @ 4.5
Hungary’s Left Wing Back Zsolt Nagy popped up with his first international goal last time out, scoring at home to Germany in their 1-1 draw. Despite registering that first goal, I am looking at Nagy’s defensive tendencies and more particularly, his card record.
Playing his entire career solely in Hungary, Nagy hasn’t been exposed to talent such as Raheem Sterling and Bukayo Saka on the regular meaning he should struggle today. With Saka being backed up by Walker, James, Trippier or Trent, Nagy could very easily be overwhelmed and overran by multiple players of quality. Dominik Szoboszlai operates on the left of the front 3 and would be most likely to help Nagy out with the overlap, however, Rossi in charge won’t want to limit his star number 10’s explosive firepower often giving him creative freedom meaning Nagy could be helpless.
Carded 10 times this season in the Hungarian League, Nagy’s step up to international football should see him carded at an even higher rate than the 0.33 he averages per game as he plays against higher quality.
If England rotate later in the game and utilise another right back and Bowen, there is still plenty of quality to exploit a tired Nagy who average the second most fouls for Hungary with 1.67 committed per game. I really like Nagy’s odds to be carded today at odds of 4.5 which will help to land the previous leg too. Nagy’s first international card came in a rush of blood tackle against Poland and after being run ragged at points in this game I can see him chucking one of those in yet again.
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