11th of June, 8/1 Turkey vs Italy Bet Builder
The European Championships are finally here and the action gets underway tonight! I’ve placed a Bet Builder for the opening game and you can load it by clicking here on mobile.
With it being 8/1, you can have a risk free shot at winning £180 if you follow the steps below…
- Join Betfair and claim a £20 risk free bet
- Deposit and place £20 on my Bet Builder
- If it wins, you win £180. If it loses, get your stake back as cash!
Turkey vs Italy – Match overview
9 times out of 10 it would sound strange to be extremely excited about a match between Turkey and Italy but not this time around, the Euros finally get underway tonight! Italy will have home advantage with the match being played in Rome so that’s a big factor here, and an interest stat I came across is that Turkey have lost their opening match in their last four appearances at the European Championships.
Turkey’s form coming into the Euros is actually pretty good. They’ve lost just once in their last 13 but I wouldn’t read too much into the recent friendlies against poor opposition. Having said that, they recently beat Holland and Norway in World Cup qualifying, scoring 7 goals across both matches.
Italy’s form is insane. They’re on a 8-match winning streak and they kept a clean sheet in each of those too. They’re 27 matches unbeaten across all competitions and they last tasted defeat back in 2018 where Portugal beat them in the Nations League.
Turkey are pretty fresh heading into this summer’s Euros and they’re going to be relying on the experienced Burak Yilmaz who’ll be raring to go after beating PSG to the Ligue 1 title with Lille this season. He’s a player to look out for as I mentioned in a previous article.
The only injury issues Italy have to worry about are with Marco Verratti and Lorenzo Pellegrini. Pellegrini picked up a problem in training so might leave the squad, and Verratti hasn’t played any part in the warm up games.
Ciro Immobile is expected to lead the line with Berardi and Insigne alongside him, so those are the players you might want to think about when putting your Bet Builders together.
Potential Turkey XI – Cakir; Celik, Demiral, Soyuncu, Meras; Yokuslu; Calhanoglu, Tufan, Under; Yazici; Yilmaz
Potential Italy XI – Donnarumma; Florenzi, Bonucci, Chiellini, Spinazzola; Barella, Jorginho, Locatelli; Berardi, Immobile, Insigne
If we start with Turkey, the main players that stand out for me when it comes to shots are Burak Yilmaz and Hakan Calhanoglu. Throughout their qualifying for Euro 2020 they both averaged well over 2 shots per game with them averaging 2.20 and 2.87 respectively. If you were to add them into your Bet Builder’s to have 2+ match shots, you can get Yilmaz at 1.44 and Calhanoglu at 1.50. It’s worth noting that AC Milan’s Calhanoglu is a set-piece specialist and one of the best in the world.
The front 3 for Italy are all going to be good picks for shots, they all averaged over 2 per game during the Nations League last year. It was Insigne who played the most amount of minutes out of the three and he still managed 3.79 per game. And for Napoli at club level, he managed a whopping 4.27 shots per game in Serie A this season.
Shots on target predictions
Again for Turkey, Yilmaz and Calhanoglu are the ones that stand out to me, and that is where their main threat lays. During the Nations League, Yilmaz averaged 0.96 for shots on target per game and Calhanoglu had a very impressive 1.62. You can back Yilmaz to have a SOT vs Italy at 1.62 or what I thinks pretty attractive is Calhanoglu at even money. A free-kick within range could be enough to see him get the job done.
Both Immobile and Insigne had their shooting boots on for Italy during qualifying for this summer’s Euros, they averaged 2.22 and 2.28 shots on target per game respectively. You could consider either player to have 2+ shots on target vs Turkey given those stats… Immobile is priced at 2.40 or you could get Insigne at 2.30.
Okay Yokuslu in the heart of Turkey’s midfield stands out to me for a booking and it’s proven by the odds which are 1.83! It’s so strange to see a booking selection at odds on but he probably is the most likely. A lot of you might recognise him as he was on loan at West Brom this season. He picked up 4 yellow cards in 16 matches, and before the loan spell, he had 3 yellows and a red in 12 La Liga matches. He averaged 1.71 fouls per game in the Premier League and he’s going to have a job on his hands shutting down Italy’s front 3.
Zeki Celic at right back for Turkey is another shout and you can back him at 2.10 – He’s going to have his hands full. He won the league with Lille this season but he racked up a massive 8 yellow cards in 29 appearances. He averages over 2 fouls per game and he’s got 90 minutes ahead of him with Berardi, Immobile and Insigne all interchanging.
2-0 Italy for me. I think they’ll win fairly comfortably, but having said that, I don’t think it’ll be a walkover. That Italy defence is ridiculously experienced with Leonardo Bonnuci and Giorgio Chiellini, and let’s not forget they’ve kept 11 clean sheets from their last 12 matches. I think Turkey can advance from this group but they’ll be relying on Yilmaz too heavily to cause Italy any threat.