I had a £5 free bet builder to use on tonight’s match so have stuck it on this at 15/1:
If you’re joining, read my write up below before making up your own mind.
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Both Teams to Score
Hansi Flick has enjoyed an 80% win rate with Germany since his appointment last August and the ex-Bayern boss has found transferring his attacking philosophy from club to international football a breeze.
Die Mannschaft have played ten fixtures over 11 months under Flick’s instruction and they have yet to fail in front of goal, netting a hugely-impressive 32 times to maintain a perfect strike rate.
Flick has flitted between narrow 3-4-3 and slightly wider 4-2-3-1 formations over the past year, though it was the latter shape that Germany employed in a tough tie at Italy (1-1) on Saturday – a structure that seemed to get the best out of wingers Serge Gnabry and Leroy Sane.
Germany left both of those wide attackers on the bench when they were nullified by England at Euro 2020, so don’t be surprised to see both Gnabry and Sane start on Tuesday.
The Three Lions looked vulnerable on both flanks against Hungary, where Trent Alexander-Arnold and debutant James Justin failed to impress. Both defenders could be replaced this week, with Reece James and Kieron Trippier waiting to step in, though the areas remain exploitable and we expect Germany to score again in Munich.
It’s worth noting however, that England had not failed to score in 14 straight games before they drew a blank at the Puskas Arena against the dogged Hungarians and the visitors should have chances to register on the counter against an expansive German side on Tuesday.
Like England, the Germans have issues at fullback where Benjamin Henrichs and Thilo Kehrer look a little substandard. Fully fit again Raheem Sterling – who was an unused substitute in Hungary – ran Germany ragged at the Euros 12 months ago – and his return to the XI should set some knees knocking at the Allianz Arena.
The evidence suggests that both teams are capable of scoring here and at close to evens, the price is certainly right.
Serge Gnabry 1+ Shots On Target
Prolific flanksman Serge Gnabry provides buckets of goal threat from his right-sided berth for Germany and the 26-year-old is likely to be a key protagonist in Tuesday’s grudge match.
With one of Reece James, Trent-Alexander Arnold or Kieron Trippier expected to fill in, England don’t have a natural left-footed wing-back to oppose Gnabry in Munich and the ex-Arsenal starlet could wreak havoc as a result.
Gnabry averaged a searing 3.4 attempts on goal per game during the German’s recent successful World Cup qualification run, a noticeable increase on his 2.0 and 2.3 efforts per 90 minutes at club level for Bayern in the Bundesliga and Champions League.
The difference in those numbers helps to shine a light on the greater responsibility Gnabry generally shoulders while turning out for Die Mannschaft, so expect the winger to be fed and fed again when the hosts are in possession this week.
Gnabry enjoyed 61 touches of the ball against Italy on Saturday, a figure that dwarfed the involvement stats posted by his fellow attackers Thomas Muller (43), Leroy Sane (39) and Timo Werner (30).
Gnabry also racked up the same number of attempts against the Italians as the rest of his final third counterparts combined and the Bayern regular should feature prominently again against England.
In Tuesday’s shots on target market, Gnabry is priced incredibly generously to register 0.5 times and we recommend including that option in any bet builder you construct.
Harry Kane 1+ Shots On Target
Harry Kane had an off-day against Hungary but he still delivered when it came to a shot on target. The big man registered three shots in the game with one of them being on target. As I fancy tonight’s game being open, I think it’ll provide Harry with a hatful of chances again.
He’s going to be hungry to score in every England game (As if he wasn’t already) as he’s still chasing Sir Bobby Robson and Wayne Rooney in the goalscoring charts.
During World Cup qualifying, Kane averaged 5.08 shots per 90 minutes with 2.92 hitting the target. And at the Euros, he averaged 2.09 shots per 90 with the on target rate being 0.98. We beat Germany 2-0 in the quarter-finals at the Euros and Harry Kane scored the goal that put them to bed.
Declan Rice To Be Carded
£100m-rated midfielder Declan Rice is England’s tackling and possession-recovery machine. The West Ham enforcer plays football like a kid in an arcade plays Whack-A-Mole and the 23-year-old hits opponents hard, fast and often.
Rice made a game-high equalling five tackles against Italy on Saturday, though that sort of total is standard fare for the Hammers hitman. Unsurprisingly, Rice generally tops the pile when tackle metrics are calculated and of course, numerous fouls and cards are par for the course for players with his remit.
The midfielder has been carded 13 times in 62 starts for club and country since last summer and all three of the bookings he collected during West Ham’s Europa League campaign in 2021/22 were picked up in just five away fixtures in the competition – something that indicates a loosening of discipline on foreign battlegrounds.
Rice should have another hefty workload to get through in Munich on Tuesday against a possession-hungry German side that enjoyed a staggering 75.8% of the ball on average during their World Cup Qualification campaign under Hansi Flick and Die Mannschaft controlled 67.3% of it against a high-end Italian team in their Nations League opener on Saturday.
Gareth Southgate will expect Germany to enjoy the lion’s share of possession again this week and Declan Rice will be tasked with disrupting Germany’s passing patterns and rhythm at the Allianz Arena.
As a consequence, Rice’s tackling statistics could be unequalled in Bavaria and his foul count could climb quickly alongside his challenges tally. With defensive actions likely to be plentiful, Rice again stands out as a candidate worth considering in the card market in Munich.
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