Monday 14th June, Euro 2020: 4/1 Spain vs Sweden Bet Builder
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Really interesting game this. Many fancy Sweden to cause a ripple in the tournament and it’s very much the opposite for Spain, the amount of times I’ve seen them predicted to flop is crazy. Yes this isn’t the Spain of old but the disrespect that’s been levelled at their squad is largely misplaced in my opinion. Sweden’s progress likely hinges on the games against Poland and Slovakia more so than this one but both sides will want a positive start to Euro 2020.
Spain will line up in a 4-3-3, the creativity in midfield will be key as the likes of Thiago and Koke look to feed Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo and either Gerard Moreno or Alvaro Morata. Morata’s recent record for Spain is great but Moreno was unbelievable this season in a Europa League winning Villareal side. Ramos was left at home so expect to see Aymeric Laporte start after switching allegiance to Spain, he’ll be paired with either Pau Torres or Eric Garcia.
Keep an eye on 21 year old Aleksander Isak for Sweden, he scored 17 goals for Sociedad this season. Emil Forsberg is industrious and creative on the ball, Spain need to keep tabs on him if they want to avoid an upset.
Spain: Simon, Llorente, Laporte, Torres, Alba, Thiago, Koke, Rodri, Torres, Moreno, Olmo
Sweden: Nordfeldt, Lustig, Lindelof, Helander, Augustinsson, Claessaon, Larsson, Olsson, Forsberg, Isak, Berg
Shots & shots on target predictions
Plenty of options here with a plethora of talent on the pitch. I’m immediately draw to Ferran Torres, we saw more of him in the latter stages of the PL season and my word was I impressed. He’s dynamic, quick and has seriously good feet as well as the ability to shoot on either side. He averages almost 4 shots per game for Spain with 1.69 hitting the target. One that caught my eye for some value was another City player – Rodri. Yes he’s a holding player but he loves to take a strike on from range, he’s 1.33 just to have a shot. It could be blocked or go nowhere near the goal and it’s still a winner.
On Sweden’s side you’d be looking at Aleksander Isak, I think he’ll start but it’s not 100% confirmed. He’ll have a tough task against Laporte and Torres so I thought I’d look further back as I can see Sweden relying on some efforts from range. With that in mind I like the look of Emil Forsberg, he’s their main driving force in attack and is always keen to take on shots from distance. He’s also a candidate for free kicks, he’s probably number 1 unless Seb Larsson is on the pitch and he’s not expected to start in this one.
Someone I’d look at here is Mikael Lustig. Celtic fans will remember him, he’s somewhat of a legend there. He’s still playing right back for Sweden at 34 years of age. He’s not got the most outrageous disciplinary record but I think he’s really going to struggle. He’ll be up against Dani Olmo who’s a fantastic dribbler with a great turn of pace. God forbid Adama Traore makes his way on to the pitch too. The veteran full back is 4/1 for a card – there’s value there.
Spain win this for me. I know that’s hardly a bold claim given that they’re 1.36, but I think the disrespect towards their squad is unfounded. They’re full of talent and too many aren’t taking notice of players like Moreno and Torres in the attack along with a stacked midfield and solid defence. Sweden will have a part to play and it may not be a walk in the park for Spain, I think 2-0 or possibly 2-1 have got potential.