I’ve gone for these two selections as my banker double today. Simply click on the image to load the bet.
The first game kicks off at 2pm and my full research is attached below:
Spezia vs Sassuolo (Sassuolo win or draw)
Sassuolo have been causing quite the uproar of Kate with some terrific Serie A performances. They were faced with a difficult run of games but have come out in a very positive mood following some terrific performances.
It started in Milan as they took the fight to the San Siro, turning over title chasers AC Milan by a 3-1 score line. That was and is Milan’s only home defeat of the season and Sassuolo thoroughly deserved it. They’re a very attacking side who play with a lot of flair and intensity, similar to Atalanta.
Then in midweek they came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with another title chaser in the form of Napoli. They even grabbed a 3rd late on but it was dissallowed after a VAR review. With such a bouyant mood in the camp right now I expect them to get a result here, I think above evens for a win is pretty big but for the purpose of the banker all we’ll need is for them to avoid defeat.
Sassuolo age now up to 12th in the table and a win today could move them as high as 9th where Lazio currently sit, dependant on results fo course. They’d hope to be in and around the top 6 come the end of the campaign so now is a key time to capitalise on some good form. That Milan result was their 2nd major scalp away from home too after beating Juventus on the road for the first time in their history.
Spezia on the other hand are struggling, a real candidate for relegation, they’ve now lost 3 straight games and only managed 3 wins so far this season from 15 outings. They’ve lost 10 matches already which is 2nd only to bottom club Salernitana.
Of their 3 wins too, 2 of them have come against the newly promoted clubs in the league (Salernitana & Venezia). A 1-0 win against Torino was the only victory against an established SA side. That result was their only win in their last 7.
Spezia have taken some very heavy defeats this season, beaten 6-1 by Lazio, 4-0 by Verona, 5-2 by Atalanta. They’re really struggling defensively. They’ve conceded more goals than anyone else in the division and they’re also the 3rd lowest scorers.
They struggle to crate chances too, they’ve got one of the lowest xG’s in the division at just 1.12. Sassuolo on the other hand rank very well in this department, 6th highest in the league, with only the current top 5 sides in the league creating more.
I expect the visitors to continue their good run, they’re a much stronger side and I can’t see Spezia controlling their creativity. At the very least they should get a point which is enough for us.
Sampdoria vs Lazio (Over 2.5 goals)
Staying in Italy for the next selection and what looks like an absolute goalfest between two wildly inconsistent sides.
These two rank incredibly well in this divison for goals. SA has been incredible recently with the league as a whole averaging 3.05 goals per game. Gone are the accusations that Italian football is boring, it’s absolute chaos.
These two are both topping that average, Sampdoria are averaging 3.3 goals per game and no side has a better hit rate for over 2.5 goals. 12 of their 15 matches have seen 3+ goals which is pretty remarkable.
As for Lazio, they’re averaging a whopping 3.9 goals per game and have seen 3+ goals in 11 of their 15 SA matches this season. Their most recent game was a 4-4 draw with Udinese. They’ve been particularly vulnerable on the road, with each of their last 4 away games seeing over 2.5 goals as they’ve been leaking all over the place. They’ve shipped 17 goals in just 7 away games.
Ideal, given that Sampdoria’s home games are full of goals. Their average jumps to 3.6 on home soil and 7/8 games there this season have seen over 2.5 goals. The only home game that had under 2.5 was a 1-0 defeat to Milan in the first home game of the season, so the last 7 in a row on this ground have all seen over 2.5.
There’s always a chance of goals with Ciro Immobile around as well, the hitman has scored 11 times already this season. Pedro has been a real quality signing too, the experienced Spaniard has chipped in with 5 goals already this season and has brought a new dimension to Sarri’s side.
Sampdoria have their own 34 year old wide man producing the goods too. Antonio Candreva has netted 6 times so far as well as laying on 4 assists for his teammates. With Fabio Quagliarella and Francesco Caputo in attack they’ve got very capable goal scorers.
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