I’m starting a brand new ladder challenge this weekend aiming to turn a £10 starting stake into £500 in 8 bets. Bet 1 starts Saturday afternoon and has been boosted to best price on Betfair.
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Man Utd vs Newcastle – Man Utd to score 2+ goals
- I’m sure you don’t need me to tell you why I think United will stroll past Newcastle, but I’ve still taken the time to explore all the stats/news to confirm that they’re as much of a banker as they look.
- Contrasting summer transfer windows set the tone for contrasting starts to their seasons.
- United have won 2, drawn 1 from their opening 3, scoring an impressive 7 goals.
- Whereas Newcastle are winless so far, losing 2/3 with only Norwich and Arsenal conceding more than their 8 goals.
- Newcastle’s only first team signing was Joe Willock, which changes nothing from last season – when he was on loan with The Magpies.
- With no bolstering to the squad, injuries are going to be a nightmare for The Toon and they’re missing several players here.
- Callum Wilson is the biggest absentee, without him I really struggle to see where their threat comes from and if anyone says Joelinton; you’re getting blocked.
- They’re also missing Jonjo Shelvey, Isaac Hayden, Ryan Fraser & Paul Dummett, as well as their two first choice goalkeepers – Martin Dubravka & Karl Darlow.
- Newcastle’s record away to strong sides is absolutely horrific as well, get this for a stat: Newcastle have lost 21 of their last 22 away games against sides who were in the top 3 at the time of playing.
- They also have a worrying recent record against United, losing the last 4 head to heads, conceding 3 or more in every single game.
- United look a force to be reckoned with this season, the arrivals of Varane, Sancho and now Ronaldo have turned them in to serious contenders.
- Along with that, the form of Pogba & Greenwood has been a breath of fresh air.
- Now, let’s address it – the return of Cristiano Ronaldo. Some have doubts given his age, but he’s still a goal scoring machine.
- He’s fresh off becoming the record international goal scorer and left Portugal duty early so the chances of a start here look high.
- CR7 scored 29 times last season in a less creative side, with the ability of the likes of Sancho, Pogba, Bruno & Greenwood – he’s going to get plenty of chances.
- It could be the dream return here for for the big man, especially against the side that he scored his only ever Premier League hat trick against.
- With United’s incredible attack, Newcastle’s woeful defence and abysmal record away to top sides, United scoring 2 goals shouldn’t be an issue at all.
West Brom vs Millwall – Over 1.5 goals
- It may be early days but the signs look good for an instant return to the Premier League for The Baggies.
- 5 games played, 4 won, 1 drawn and 12 goals scored.
- With Grady Diangana, Matt Phillips, Alex Mowatt and Callum Robinson – Albion have incredible firepower for this level.
- Robinson missed their last league match but was back in action for Ireland in midweek so should return to the fold here.
- He’s already bagged 3 league goals this season and will certainly challenge for the golden boot, provided he stays fit.
- He’ll get chances all season long, with West Brom currently topping the xG charts for The Championship.
- Although brilliant in attack, with only Fulham out scoring them, West Brom have conceded 5 goals so far.
- They shipped 2 on opening night as well as 2 at home to Luton, the Luton game in particular really highlighting their defensive frailties.
- They face a Millwall side with a 100% record when it comes to over 1.5 goals this season.
- Despite their league position and results, they’re playing well too.
- They’re actually 4th in the league for expected goals, averaging an xG of 1.29 per game – only WBA, Fulham and Coventry can better that.
- Their EFL cup win against Cambridge was followed by a league win against Blackpool, so confidence is on the up as they travel to The Hawthorns.
- Jed Wallace has been the star of the show so far and with Benik Afobe leading the line, they’ve got reason to believe they can score against anyone.
- I do think West Brom will win, I was tempted by that selection for my acca but I’m siding with goals here as I do believe Millwall can play their part.
- Over 2.5 would also be a consideration but for the sake of the challenge I’m playing it safe on over 1.5.