I’ve gone for these two selections as my banker double today. Simply click on the image to load the bet.
Both games kick off at 7:45pm and my full research is attached below:
Rotherham vs Gillingham (Rotherham to win)
It’s 1st vs 21st in League One as The Millers look to continue their charge towards the title. The table is looking incredibly tight with both Wycombe and Wigan joint on points with tonight’s hosts. Sunderland and Plymouth are just 2 points back too, the Christmas period is going to be crucial.
Rotherham couldn’t ask for a much better game for their first league clash of December following FA Cup action at the weekend where they overcame National League side Stockport.
Rotherham come in to this with no defeats in 13 league matches, in all competitions they’re unbeaten in 18, a run which stretches back to early September, they’ve been in scintillating form, especially on home soil.
They knocked in 3 here against Cambridge, 5 against Sunderland and 4 against Pompey. They’re not just scraping by, they’re demolishing sides who come here, some very strong ones too.
You know I love a look at stats like xG, well Rotherham boast some truly exceptional numbers. At home their average xG is a massive 2.02, their xG against us just 0.87 which is very low. A tight defence and a rampant attack. They’re scoring 2.2 goals per game in average at home. They excel nearly everywhere at home, they take more shots, have a much better conversion rate, win more fouls, concede less fouls and suffer much fewer corners against. They’re just an absolute powerhouse in front of their own fans.
Micheal Smith was on target at the weekend, his second in 2 games. The target man has 12 league goals this season and he should start again here, he’ll likely be joined by Freddie Ladapo. Ladapo has 5 league goals himself this season and should start ahead of Joshua Kayode.
Dominic Barlaser and Benjamin Wiles have created the platform for Rotherham to be as creative as they have been. Wiles has netted 5 from midfield with 1 assist whilst Barlaser has mirrored that with 5 assists and 1 goal. They’ll both start in the middle of the park here.
As for the Gills, they’re really struggling at the moment. From 20 games this season they’ve won just 3, only rock bottom Crewe (2) have won less. They’ve now lost 3 straight games without scoring, which even includes a loss to that woeful Crewe side.
With just 1 away win so far this campaign it’s hard to see how they’ll cause many problems against such a strong side, especially on their own soil where they really excel.If we’re talking abort how good Rotherham’s metrics are, Gillingham’s make for pretty grim reading. An xG for on the road of just 1.14, whilst an xG against of a massive 1.94. A pretty worrying disparity for the visitors in that department. They’ve kept just 1 clean sheet on the road, which was in their only win against newly promoted Cambridge.
With that woeful output it’s no surprise that Gillingham are the 2nd lowest scorers in League One. Only Donny have scored fewer. Rotherham have scored 22 goals at home this season, that’s 6 more than the visitors have scored in total so far.
Should be a pretty routine victory for Paul Warne’s men this evening. Anything less than a victory is unacceptable especially with other clubs breathing down their neck. No EFL, National League, or National League North/South side is shorter odds to win on Tuesday evening, so Rotherham are very well fancied to deliver the goods.
Elgin vs Kelty Hearts (Kelty Hearts to win)
Here’s a stat for you – there’s only one unbeaten team left in the ‘senior leagues’ of England and Scotland, so from the Premier League down to the National Leagues and from the SPFL down to Scottish League Two. That team is Kelty Hearts.
Kelty are 14 games in to their season and are still to taste defeat, they’ve won 11. Scoring 29 (leagues highest) and conceding just 9 (leagues lowest) and are powering towards promotion from the 4th tier of Scottish football.
If you don’t know about Kelty, now is the time to learn. They’re a side led by former Rangers and Hibs midfielder Kevin Thomson having previously been managed by former Rangers Captain Barry Ferguson.
They’re very well funded for this level and have put together a squad that is frankly far too strong for the division they’re currently in. Players such as Jamie Barjonas, Joe Cardle and Kallum Higginbotham have all played at considerably higher levels. That extra quality is what’s setting them apart from the other sides in the table. Nathan Austin and Joe Cardle sit 1&2 in the league scoring charts, both turning out for the league leaders. Austin with 8 goals this season, albeit he’s on a run without one – his quality is clear for all to see at this level.
That added quality saw Kelty eliminate League One side Montrose from the Scottish Cup at the weekend, setting up a tie with the holders – St Johnstone.
Kelty have the best xG in the league by a country mile at 1.82, the next closest is Stenhousemuir at 1.41. Tonight’s opponents Elgin rank 3rd bottom of the xG table with just 1.05.
So more on Elgin then, they’ve been out of action for a couple of weeks, with cup games taking over the Scottish schedule. They probably welcomed the break given that they’ve won just 1 of their last 9 in all competitions. They’ve managed just 3 wins all season, bottom of the table Cowdenbeath are the only one with fewer. They’re also the only side that Elgin have beaten in their last 9 outings.
Elgin have taken the majority of their points at home this season but that doesn’t concern me, thanks to Kelty’s fantastic away record. From 6 games they’ve won 5 and drawn 1, scoring 16 goals in the process. They’ve scored 2 or more in all but 1 away match.
These two have already met this season, they were in the same group in the Scottish Cup which Elgin were eliminated from, whereas Kelty, as mentioned, are still going strong. Elgin lead early but 3 second half goals saw Kelty run out comfortable winners in the end, Nathan Austin helped himself to a brace.
Kelty are a well oiled machine at this level, they’re powering towards the title and nobody looks likely to stop them. A win tonight would open up a 10 point gap at the top of the table, this is a game in hand over 2nd placed Forfar. 10 points would look nearly unassailable ag this stage.
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