Huge night for the Welsh. Win and they’ll break a 64-year wait of being in the World Cup.
I’ll be watching live on Sky Sports so have researched and stuck a tenner on this bet builder. If you’re joining, read my write up below and keep stakes sensible.
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Gareth Bale 2+ Shots On Target
Gareth Bale is the main man for Wales and there’s nothing wrong with that. The now 5-times Champions League winner remains up there with the best in the world and he simply lives for these big occasions, it’s where he performs best.
In fact, the reason Wales are in this final is because Bale scored a brace during their 2-1 win over Austria at home in the semis. Bale had 5 shots during that game with a couple being on target, both resulting in goals. The first was the free-kick from around 25-yards where the ball moved all over the place and left the keeper with no chance. The second was a snapshot into the top corner inside the box, another special finish.
During World Cup qualifying, Bale has averaged 4.63 shots per 90 minutes with 1.67 hitting the target. I was originally looking at Bale to have 3 or more shots at 1.30, however, 2 or more on target at 2.25 looked far more appealing.
Given the goal against Austria, it becomes an obvious point that Gareth Bale is Wales’ free-kick taker and that’s a massive advantage when it comes to shots on target. He’s still one of the best technical players in the world so he’s very likely to hit the target given an opportunity. Also, if you watched the Ukraine game against Scotland, you’ll know their keeper Bushchan was very dodgy. Bale will be more than aware and I believe he’ll be looking to test him as much as he can. Even if it’s long-shots from range on what will be a wet and slick surface.
Bale has had 2+ shots on target in 3 of his last 4 starts for Wales, the only appearance where he didn’t was against Belarus where he was substituted at half-time.
Ruslan Malinovskyi 2+ shots
Next up is Ruslan Malinovskyi for a couple of shots and they don’t need to be on target here, they can go anywhere as long as it’s clear he was trying to shoot.
I backed this on Wednesday night when Ukraine played Scotland in the semi final and it landed inside the first half with his first shot even coming within the first 10 minutes. He actually went on to have 3 in total.
He’s a tricky attacking midfielder and is the main man for Ukraine’s free kicks – so we might only need two free kicks in shooting range to land this. He also likes to loiter around the edge of the area, picking up loose balls and have a pop from distance.
Stats wise domestically he averaged 3.28 shots per 90 for Atalanta where he plays and those stats are even better for Ukraine where during qualifying for his years World Cup he averaged 4.59 shots per 90 with 0.69 ending up hitting the target.
I expect Ukraine to have most of the ball, especially in the first half and that should favour Malinovskyi gaining the ball from the edge of the area and having a few shots.
Oleksandr Zinchenko 2+ shots
Another Ukraine player I like the look of for shots is someone everyone probably knows better, Man City left back Oleksandr Zinchenko.
First and foremost you’ve got to understand that Zinchenko plays much further forward in a Ukraine shirt than for City. Pep Guardiola uses him as left back over lapping Sterling etc down the wing where angles for shooting are tighter. For Ukraine however he plays the left side of a midfield three with Stepanenko holding and Malinovskyi on the right.
That allows Zinchenko much more freedom to drive up the pitch and get involved with the attack. Minus the Scotland game, this is his shooting stats in his last 5 games for Ukraine…
• 3 shots, 2 on target & 1 goal v Bosnia
• 1 shot v Kazakhstan
• 4 shots v Kazakhstan
• 3 shots, 1 on target v Finland
• 1 shot v World Cup winners France
In Wales’ semi final at home v Austria, they let the Austrians have the ball most of the game with two Bale strikes either side of the half the difference. 36% v 64% possession and 16 shots against. I expect them to set up similar tonight and allow Ukraine to come at them. That will play in favour of Zinchenko shots and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him over the ball for free kicks too.
Over 3.5 Match Cards
These are the matches where cards stats can go out of the window to a certain extent, the comparison between a general World Cup qualifier and play-off meeting of this magnitude holds no weight. There’s so much on the line here and so many possibilities when it comes to reasons for a card to be brandished.
Wales are looking to reach their first World Cup finals since 1958, it’d be an incredible achievement. And as I mentioned earlier, qualifying for this winter’s World Cup would bring joy to Ukraine who have experienced turmoil as a nation. Both sets of players will be playing with plenty of emotion.
There were 4 cards handed out during Wales’ play-off semi-final against Austria, and there were 5 cards handed out during Ukraine’s match in Scotland earlier in the week. Today’s match in Cardiff will be refereed by Antonio Lahoz who averaged 4.85 cards per game domestically, 4.75 cards in the Europa League and 4.25 in World Cup qualifying.
A one-match shootout for a spot in a World Cup is always going to have cards in my opinion. I see them coming for frustrated fouls, cynical fouls, emotion boiling after and even time-wasting. I’ll suggest some examples of what I can picture happening.
Frustrated fouls – Imagine Ukraine are 2-0 up and comfortable and Wales are having their big moment at home ruined. I can imagine a less-experienced player like Ethan Ampadu, a man who picked up 15 cards in 29 games for Venezia, chopping someone down because he’s lost his cool.
Cynical fouls – It doesn’t matter what the score line is, but if quick flare players like Gareth Bale and Dan James break the Ukrainian lines, they’re likely going to be brought down to stop the danger in its tracks. A player like Taras Stepanenko would take a yellow all day long.
Emotion boiling over – As I’ve mentioned several times. It’s a potential first World Cup for Wales in decades and it’s a chance for Ukraine to lift the mood of their nation. Whoever finds themselves on the verge of missing out on their dream could cause handbags due to a loss of their heads.
Time-wasting – If either side are leading with minimal time left, it wouldn’t be surprising to see either goalkeeper booked for wasting time, or even somebody like a throw-in taker. We saw it in the England game yesterday and it wasn’t even a big game.
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