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Golden Boot Race: Premier League Top Goal-Scorer Odds 2022/2023

Kane and Son copy

Tottenham’s dynamic duo, Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son have won the Golden Boot in the last two seasons. The England striker scored 23 goals to be crowned top goal-scorer in 2020/21, whilst the South Korean winger shared last season’s Golden Boot with Liverpool’s Mo Salah, also hitting the net 23 times. This season, the top scorer is even harder to call with big name attacking signings across the Big 6. Erling Haaland to Man City, Darwin Nunez to Liverpool, Gabriel Jesus to Arsenal and Raheem Sterling to Chelsea are all new names in the race for the most goals.

Read below to check out how the bookies have ranked each of their chances.

Erling Haaland @ 13/5

The Norwegian number 9 is the bookie’s favourite to win the Premier League Golden Boot at the first time of asking, and his record explains why. Haaland is one of the most prolific and clinical strikers in Europe, holding the record for the best minutes per goal ratio in both the Bundesliga and Champions League; averaging a goal every 87 minutes for Dortmund, and every 64 minutes in the Champions League. The 21 year old “Nordic Meat Shield’s” league record is incredible, scoring 62 goals in 67 appearances for Borussia Dortmund.

Joining a high-flying Manchester City team for just Β£51m is a scary thought to have. Behind him he will have one of, if not the best creative midfielder in the world in Kevin de Bruyne. The Belgian has supplied 86 assists in 210 appearances for the Sky Blues, and created 71 chances last season alone. City have been begging for an out-and-out striker to finish off these chances since Sergio Aguero left, and Haaland is surely the answer to their calls. If he settles into the Premier League’s physicality quickly, he’ll take some beating to the Golden Boot.

Mohamed Salah @ 9/2

When choosing a top goal-scorer, picking last year’s joint top goal scorer is always a good option. Salah has registered over 20 goals in 4 out of his 5 seasons at Liverpool, breaking the record in the 2017/18 with a whopping 32 goals. In those 5 seasons, he has won the Golden Boot 3 times, so it’s hard to look past him for another one.

Liverpool have added to their attack this season by forking out Β£85m for a young Uruguayan striker in Darwin Nunez. The question is, will this steal the limelight and the goals from Mo Salah? My first thought is no. Nunez will add so much pace and aggression to the Reds’ pressing and attack, and this will only free up more space for the Egyptian King. To help down the right side, Salah has an ever-improving creator in Trent Alexander-Arnold. The attacking-minded right back created the most chances (79) in the league last season, registering 12 assists. To help out even more, Andrew Robertson registered 10 assists for Liverpool from the other flank, crossing in from the left to the Salah’s right. I think with that in mind, Salah is not a bad shout for the Golden Boot once again.

Harry Kane @ 5/1

Arguably the greatest English striker in the Premier League since Alan Shearer. The Tottenham man’s record speaks for itself; 183 goals in 283 appearances ranks him 5th amongst the overall Premier League goal-scorers. Only Alan Shearer (260), Wayne Rooney (208), Andy Cole (187) and Sergio Aguero (184) have scored more, although after this season he’s very likely to break into the top 3.

Spurs have been improving, and under Antonio Conte pipped Arsenal into the elusive top 4 last season, thanks in part to a late collapse from their bitter North London rivals. If Son and Kane can continue their partnership, and extend their record breaking 37 Premier League goal combinations, the question will be who will come out on top. I’m personally surprised at the odds being in Kane’s favour given last season’s tally of 17 to Son’s 23, and his new deeper-lying, more creative number 9 role under Conte.

Gabriel Jesus @ 11/1

With Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang leaving the club, the Gunners were missing that firepower up front. Sporting director Edu used his Brazilian connections to land a experienced and clinical striker in Gabriel Jesus for Β£45m from Manchester City. The new number 9 has never been able to solidify a place in Pep’s squad despite a proven goal-scoring record; 58 goals in 159 appearances, and a goal every 160 minutes.

Given the time on the pitch, the flair and energy the Brazilian brings to the table makes him my outside option for the Golden Boot. If he can combine with young sparks Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard I think he could break the 20 goal mark. During preseason this wasn’t a problem – Jesus scored seven goals in five pre-season appearances and is currently averaging a goal every 37.85 minutes in an Arsenal shirt.

Son-Heung Min @ 13/1

Last season’s joint top goal-scorer is massively underrated by the bookies at 13/1. Son and Kane’s devastating combination meant Son and Kane scored 40 league goals between them in 38 games. That’s some big numbers and I can see Son being a frequent name on the scoresheet this season.

Given Tottenham have been improving under experienced manager Antonio Conte, I think this season could be make or break for them. Son turned 30 this month, whilst Harry Kane turns 30 next year. Their two stars are reaching the peak of their careers where they will either want to win a trophy, or move on to new pastures. I think the duo have one high-scoring season left in them, and that may well prove to be this one.

Darwin Nunez @ 13/1

The final bookie’s favourite is another summer signing, and another Liverpool attacker. Darwin Nunez signed for the Merseyside club for a massive Β£85m from Benfica, but comes in with the expectation he will be well worth every penny. Last season, the 23 year old scored 26 goals in 28 games in the Liga Portugal, with another 6 in 10 Champions League games. He came onto Liverpool’s radar after a stunning performance against them in last season’s Champions League.

Nunez can play up front on his own, as well as out wide on the left in a front three and I expect a very fluid front 3 of Luis Diaz, Mo Salah alongside the Uruguayan. His finishing is the most impressive aspect of his game, coupled with his clever movement and positioning. There’s been a big question mark over whether Man City or Nunez got the better deal, however at the first time of asking Nunez took the headlines, scoring a last minute debut goal against City at Wembley to seal the Community Shield. I certainly think he’ll be a double-figure goal-scorer this season, but a Golden Boot in his debut season might be a push too far.

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