Brighton vs Bournemouth
The Seagulls are absolutely flying under Roberto De Zebri and I don’t see a more fitting place to start the climb to £1,000.
Brighton are unbeaten in 2023, they’ve been on a fantastic run of results:
4-1 win vs Everton (A)
5-1 win vs ‘Boro (A)
3-0 win vs Liverpool (H)
2-2 draw vs Leicester (A)
2-1 win vs Liverpool (H)
They are playing some of the best football in the division right now and since the World Cup ended, the only side to have beaten them in 90 minutes was league leaders Arsenal.
They also managed to retain the services of star man Moises Caicedo despite endless speculation of a move to Chelsea.
They are without Alexis Mac Allister here due to suspension, but even so, they should have more than enough to comfortably dispatch of Bournemouth.
At home, Brighton are averaging an xG of 1.77 in the Premier League and restricting their opponents to just 1.14 xG.
Both games against Liverpool saw the Seasiders post an xG of above 2.00, which is a seriously threatening output.
Across January, they averaged an xG of 2.27. If you’re not familiar with what that really means – that means they’re creating more chances on average that Man City have this season.
They’re averaging almost 14 shots per game with nearly 6 per match hitting the target.
We can’t have Brighton involved and not talk about the man of the moment either, Kaoru Mitoma.
Mitoma netted twice in the league and once in the cup in January as he sank Liverpool with that glorious winner on Sunday afternoon.
As much as this bet is about how good Brighton are, it’s also got a lot to do with how dreadful Bournemouth are.
They made some eye catching signings on deadline day, but it’s too early for those to turn their season around.
The Cherries are horrific on the road, there’s no way around that. They’ve taken just 5 points from a potential 30 and rocking a -22 goal difference on the road.
They’ve lost 5 straight PL games, failing to score in 4 of those.
Their metrics on the road are hideous. They create an average xG of just 0.87 and suffer an average xGA of 2.33.
Let’s not forget, they lost an actual competitive Premier League game 9-0. Nine. Nil.
Corners in this game look as near to a dream bet as we could hope for in this challenge.
Brighton’s expansive style and desire to use the whole width of the pitch, particularly at the Amex has made them an absolute machine for corners.
At home, Brighton average 7.78 corners. They’re yet to drop below 5 in any home match this season.
I expect Brighton to dominate proceedings here. They could have this element ticked off by the time the break rolls around, given that they’ve taken an average of 4.67 corners per game in the first half when on home soil.
The perfect accompaniment here is the fact that Bournemouth ship corners to as much of an extent as Brighton take them.
The Cherries concede an average of 6.75, that rises to a huge 7.10 when they play away from home.
They’ve shipped 5 or more in 90% of their PL away games this season.