Plzen vs Bayern Munich
The first part is simple, Bayern Munich to beat Plzen.
Czech side Plzen are the unfortunate souls who happened to be drawn in a group alongside three giants in Bayern Munich, Inter Milan and Barcelona. It should come as no surprise that they’ve lost every game so far.
They’ve conceded 12 goals already which is an average of four goals conceded per game. Compare that with Bayern who are yet to concede a goal in Europe. Very impressive considering the calibre of opponents they’ve faced.
I’ll list Plzen’s first three results to you can see just how much they’ve come up against it:
Game 1 – Barcelona away where they were thrashed 5-1. They allowed Barca to have 73% of the ball, 10 shots on target and 10 corners.
Game 2 – They were beaten 2-0 at home by Inter Milan and it could’ve been slightly worse. The Italians had 7 shots on target and produced an xG of 2.53.
Game 3 – The first meeting between Plzen and Bayern last week. Bayern were 3-0 up after 20 minutes so it could’ve been a bigger thrashing than the 5-0 result. Bayern were very efficient as they had 22 shots during the game with 13 on target.
Bayern Munich are a formidable force in the Champions League. This season – They’ve played three, won three, scored nine goals and conceded zero. That’s only scratching the surface on the frightening stats though.
Bayern have lost just two of their last 34 matches in the Champions League, dating all the way back to March 2019. Of those 34 matches, they won a huge 29.
Bayern have excelled in the expected goals metric this campaign (shock) and especially so away from home. They’re producing an xGF of 2.96 away from home in the Champions League which can only be beaten by Napoli who are flying.
Rangers vs Liverpool
The second part of Bet 2 is over 2.5 goals in the game between Rangers and Liverpool at Ibrox. A selection that very surprisingly didn’t win during the first meeting at Anfield last week.
There were a total of 30 shots between the two sides, with Liverpool having 10 shots on target and having taken a total of 13 corners. 40-year-old Allan McGregor had a brilliant game in between the sticks of Rangers and made a string of big saves.
During last week’s game at Anfield, Liverpool produced an xG of 2.36 and Rangers produced an xG of 1.09. Antonio Colak had a great chance to get one back for Rangers late on, a 44% chance of scoring, however Alisson denied him with a big save.
Rangers are averaging 3.56 goals per game domestically and they’ve had over 2.5 goals scored in 89% of their league matches. No other side in the Scottish Premiership comes close to that success rate as St Johnstone are next with 70%.
As for Rangers’ efforts in the Champions League, they’d had seven goals scored across their first two games before meeting Liverpool in that game that should’ve had more than just two goals. They started the group stages with a 4-0 loss in Amsterdam before a 3-0 home defeat against Napoli.
Liverpool come into tonight on the back of the defeat at Arsenal, with their general results all over the place, but the good news is that they’re still an amazing side for goals. It doesn’t matter to use whether they’re scoring or conceding them.
Jurgen Klopp’s side are averaging 4.00 goals per game in the Premier League, and they’ve had over 2.5 goals scored in 75% of their matches. They also had over 2.5 goals scored in their first two Champions League matches, the embarrassing 4-1 defeat in Naples before beating Ajax 2-1 at Anfield.
An interesting statistic is that Liverpool have scored two or more goals in 13 of their last 16 matches in the Champions League. If they keep that success up and continue to defend how they have been then I believe we’re onto a winner.
Rangers are at risk of being knocked out of Europe completely so they’re going to have to throw the kitchen sink at it tonight, especially if the Scousers go ahead.