Union Berlin vs Stuttgart
First stop in the search for goals is the German capital as Union host this season’s real surprise package, Stuttgart.
We’ll start with the visitors, because they’re having a ridiculous start to their season. VFB were nearly relegated last season, and only stayed up through victory in the relegation play-off, which they won in very controversial circumstances.
Fast forward a few months and they’re 2nd in the Bundesliga, having won 6/7 so far. Only Bayern & Leverkusen (23) have netted more goals than Stuttgart’s 22.
Their matches so far have averaged 4.29 goals. They’ve scored in 7/7 and all 7 have seen 2 or more match goals.
You can’t talk about them without mentioning their talismanic striker, Serhou Guirassy. Guirassy has netted an incredible 13 times in just 7 games, yes THIRTEEN.
If you get 5 mins too, go watch his goals. He’s not just scoring tap ins, some of the goals are just superb. He’s a big, powerful number 9, with a delicate touch and finish. he’s netted 8 in his last 4, including 2 hat tricks. Incredible form.
As for Union, it’s been a struggle. They won their opening 2 games, but since then they’ve lost 5 on the spin as they’ve struggled to cope with the added strain of European football.
Despite being so frail at the back, they’ve still been finding the net consistently. They’ve scored 11 in 7, but conceded 14. That’s an average of 3.57 per game, with 6/7 games seeing 2 or more match goals; the 1-0 defeat to Heidenheim was the only blip.
They lead twice against Dortmund in their last match before the break, only to go down 4-2. Injuries to Alex Kral and Robin Gosens are far from ideal too for a side struggling to keep goals out, especially going in to a meeting against the league’s most dangerous marksman.
Sassuolo vs Lazio
A jump over to Italy in the evening for the 2nd part of bet 1. These two have met 20 times in Serie A, and not a single match has seen under 1.5 goals. The fixture overall has averaged 4.60 goals.
Both sides have displayed very unpredictable form so far, and sit side by side in 12th and 13th, both on 10 points, both with a -2 goal difference.
Sassuolo games have averaged 3.25 goals, Lazio games 2.75 and both sides have seen over 1.5 goals in 6/7 matches so far this season.
The hosts have stepped up massively against the bigger sides in the table this season. They turned over Juventus 4-2 here, before a 2-1 win away in the San Siro against Inter the following week. Yet, they’ve lost to the likes of Frosinone, and been held to a draw by Lecce.
It’s a side full of talent in the likes of Berardi, Lauriente and Pinamonti. Their issue lies defensively, they’ve surrendered an average xG of 1.81 per match so far and are 1 of just 2 sides in Seria A who’ve failed to keep a clean sheet.
That’s something Lazio can definitely take advantage of. They netted 3 against Atalanta last time out. Again though, they’re having serious issues at the back. they’re also allowing opponents plenty of chances, with an average 1.65 xGA so far this campaign.
There’s good news team wise, as striker Ciro Immobile could be involved again following his injury. Original fears were bad, but it’s now been assessed and Immobile could feature here after resting during the International break. That would be a boost given his prolific record against Sassuolo, being directly involved in 12 goals in 16 SA outings against them.
I fancy BTTS here, with both sides struggling at the back but also possessing the talent to hurt one another. But, with the boost, the safer option of 1.5 is lovely.