Swindon vs Newport
13th October
kick off 15:00 Both teams to score and over 2.5 Goals
This game looks absolutely bonkers.
Let me just allow some stats to do the talking to begin with:
Swindon matches average 4.09 goals, 73% of their matches have had 3 or more goals. These figures rise to 4.60 and 80% at home.
Newport games average 3.75 goals, an incredible 92% of their matches have had 3 or more goals. On the road, those rise to 4.00 and 100%.
Swindon are the divisions 2nd top scorers, netting an incredible 27 goals in just 12 matches. They’ve scored in every home game. Including scoring 6 against Crawley and 5 against Sutton.
Despite being 19th, Newport are the 2nd highest scorers in the division. They’ve scored in 11 straight games, their 3-0 defeat on opening day remains the only game they’ve not netted in.
These two boast BTTS strike rates of 64% and 75% respectively.
It just looks like a bonkers game. Swindon are probably the stronger team, and odds suggest that, but they are ropey at the back.
They’ve conceded an average of 1.64 goals per game, which is actually less than they deserve given their average xGA of 1.73.
Swindon did fail to score in their last league outing, but you’ve got to look deeper.
They were without striker Jake Young, who’s scored 9 and assisted 4 in just 10 games, as Young is actually on loan from Bradford so was unable to play.
In Will Evans and Omar Bogle, Newport have plenty of firepower themselves.
