9/1 Oxford United vs Arsenal Bet Builder

It wasn’t easy to find value in this game, but having dug deep into the players involved, I eventually found something interesting.

Oxford’s Marcus McGuane is a 23-year-old who spent 12 years in Arsenal’s youth set up before leaving in 2018 having reportedly been bullied by two coaches within the academy. This, in my mind, has me thinking that McGuane may be gunning to put in a strong performance against his former club. He’ll be going up against former academy teammates Eddie Nketiah and Emile Smith Rowe.

After his exit from Arsenal, McGuane went to Spain and joined Barcelona B. He did have a run out with the first team, and he became the first Englishman to represent Barcelona in 29 years after Gary Lineker. Since then, he’s had a loan spell with Telstar in Holland, a permanent move to Nottingham Forest, and now he looks to have settled with Oxford United.

McGuane isn’t prolific at picking up cards, but the story behind him makes me favour him over any other player for a booking. He has committed the second-most fouls in the Oxford squad with 28 in 24 appearances, an average of 1.23 per game.

Something else to note is that McGuane is the most fouled player in the Oxford team and by some distance. He’s been fouled 49 times (the next player is on 33), creating an average of 2.16 fouls drawn per game. Often times where players are fouled, they like to do the same in retaliation. Rodri in midfield vs Chelsea yesterday was the perfect example.

Lastly, I’m backing Arsenal’s Fabio Vieira to have a couple of shots. I’ve been impressed by him on the rare occasion I’ve seen him and Arteta has allowed him to have some minutes.

He’s got a decent shot on him, so two or more efforts at goal looks a decent addition. Vieira is currently average 2.53 shots P/90 from the minutes he’s played so far in the Premier League.

He’s also averaging 2.26 shots P/90 in the Europa League where he’s seen most of his opportunities so he’s consistent.