14/1 FA CUP Goals Galore

An all Non-League tie with National League Barnet hosting National League South side Chelmsford.

Barnet games have featured plenty of goals in the league this season with a huge 71 goals in their 17 games with them scoring 33 and conceding 38. They have already been in games featuring scorelines of 4-5, 4-3 and the crazy 7-5 game against Wrexham.

Chelmsford are having a very good season. Last year they really struggled and were involved in a relegation battle, but this time around they are at the opposite end of the table are currently sit in 3rd.

They have only conceded 9 times in the league, but their average xG against is 1.33 therefore they really should have conceded more than they have and here we have to factor they are playing a team from the league above them and one that is scoring plenty of goals.

Chelmsford are averaging an xG for of 1.57 so they are creating plenty of chances and I think they will get chances against Barnet given their shaky defence. It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw an upset in this game, but one thing I think we will certainly see is goals for both sides.

Barnet’s Nicke Kabamba is already on 10 goals for the season and Harry Pritchard has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games.

Meanwhile for Chelmsford the experienced Simeon Jackson has been leading the way with 6 goals.

Surprise League Two contenders Stevenage face what looks like a potential banana skin away in the North East.

Stevenage are 2nd in Leagie Two, they’ve won 12/17, scoring 24 goals in the process.

They struggled last season but have embarked on an incredible turnaround.
They play incisive football, built from a solid base. They average an xG of 1.66, which they’re actually tailing slightly which suggests there’s even more to come from this side.

They’d be expected to be able to sweep this Gateshead team aside with The Heed on a dreadful run of form.

Newly promoted, Gateshead have won just 2/17 in the National League.
One thing they are good for is goals. Their games have averaged 2.9 goals, they’re consistent scorers but leaky defensively.

Demonstrated nicely by their current 9 game run that has seen BTTS land in every game.

They suffer an average xGA of 1.61, which is hefty, especially ahead of facing such a dangerous side.

Stevenage could easily cover the goals by themselves here if they’re at their best, but I think The Heed could make a game of this.

The shortest odds of any FA Cup game to go over 2.5 today as League 1 Charlton host Coalville, a side who sit 5th in the Southern Central Division.

That also has Charlton has the shortest odds of any side to win at 1.2, I’d thoroughly expect them to cover this line by themselves against a fair weaker opposition.

Charlton played out a remarkable 4-4 draw with Ipswich last week. They’ve been in good form of late and goals have flowed, with 4 of their last 6 having over 2.5.

They’ve got a solid xG of 1.49 and suffer an xGA of 1.39, so there could be some hope for Coalville to steal a fairytale goal.

Albeit at a different standard, Coalville are in brilliant form and their games are laden with goals.

Over 2.5 has landed in their last 9 games in all comps and domestically, they’ve scored 34 times in just 12 games.

It’s worth mentioning too that they won 3-2 away at a very strong Notts County side to be here. They’ve nothing to lose and can play without fear.

Ultimately. If Charlton don’t win this comfortably then it’s a disappointment on their end. A Coalville goal is a bonus and we’d love to see that for the joy of the cup but Charlton should manage 3 on their own.

This looks like a real potential for an upset, if you can even call it that I guess.
Ebbsfleet are absolutely flying in the National League South. They’re top of the division having won 12 and drawn 3 of their opening 15 games.

They’ve also rattled in 38 goals along the way. 26 of those have come across 8 home games, where they’ve won 7, drawn 1.

The Fleet average an xG of 1.81. Their quality in attack has seen them turn that in to an average of 2.51 goals scored per game.

Their domestic matches this season have averaged 3.33 goals, 67% have had over 2.5.

Halifax are a step above in opposition and present Ebbsfleet with a real test, one I’m sure they’ll be keen to measure themselves against.

Halifax have had extra prep time and rest for this game, so I’d expect a full strength side and all guns blazing.

Their midweek game against Dorking was called off, so Town have had a full week to get themselves ready for what they’ll know is a stern challenge.

The away side should be able to break down the hosts, with their added quality. But I can see Ebbsfleet causing the visitors plenty of problems and I’d fancy them to get a result.

National League Chesterfield will be hoping to emulate their run in the FA Cup last season which saw them travel to Stamford Bridge in the 3rd Round and they host League 2 Northampton on Saturday. This is another game where I like the chances of both sides finding the net.

13 of Chesterfield’s 17 league games have seen both sides scoring and 2 of the games where only one team scored were their 2nd and 3rd games of the season. Their 4th Qualifying Round game away at Step 5 Anstey Nomads saw them come away with a 3-0 victory, but the BBC showed the game live and Anstey were able to create quite a few chances that a team from higher up the pyramid would have scored.

This means I think Northampton will score, but Chesterfield are full of goals themselves and they have netted 33 times.

Joe Quigley is finding the net this season, Kabongo Tshimanga always has goals in him and midfielder Jeff King has scored in 3 of their last 4 games.

Chesterfield are currently in 3rd as are Northampton who are currently the top scorers in the league with 29 goals. 11 of their 17 games have seen both sides scoring as well so I am confident that both teams can find the net here.

Sam Hoskins is currently top scorer in the division with 12 goals and he is the most likely scorer for the away side.

There’s always a chance in these games that the side in the division above clicks in to gear and pulls away. So I’m happier sticking to an over 2.5 selection here.