16/1 Goals Galore

Over 1.5 goals:
Millwall: 83%
Bristol City: 88%

BTTS:
Millwall: 39%
Bristol City: 58%

Gary Rowett’s side produced an incredible performance away to Watford to take their place in the play-off places in the Championship. The crazy thing is, with how close this league is, they’re only 8 points above opponents Bristol City who currently reside in 18th.

I fancy Millwall to win this one; given the positive atmosphere around The Den. However, you can normally rely on Bristol City to create chances. Their xG isn’t incredible at 1.29 P/90, but it’s more than enough to get them a goal especially with the finishing ability of Weimann and Wells & the creativity of young starlet Alex Scott.

Over 1.5 goals:
Burton: 87%
Forest Green: 83%

BTTS:
Burton: 57%
Forest Green: 54%

As mentioned before, nobody provides as much entertainment in League One as The Brewers. Burton have scored 30 times this season, a remarkable feat for a side who sit 2nd bottom. By comparison Barnsley (4th), Bolton (5th) and Derby (6th) have all scored fewer goals.

They’ve been undone by a woeful defence that have conceded 44 times. That’s the joint highest in the league; along with opponents Forest Green.

Despite a modest 19 goals scored, you can’t count on Burton to keep a clean sheet against anyone given their hefty average xGA of 1.52. They’ve also conceded in 10/11 away games this season.

Over 1.5 goals:
Bristol Rovers: 78%
Exeter: 78%

BTTS:
Bristol Rovers: 65%
Exeter: 52%

These two rank in the upper echelons for goals in League One and have provided great entertainment. In fact, only Burton have seen more goals per game on average than The Gas. Rovers turned round their early season struggles and are now really making a mark following their dramatic promotion from League 2. Their 35 goals scored ranks them as the 5th most dangerous attack in the league.

They’re separated by just 3 points and both sit within reasonable range of the play-offs. It’ll be earmarked as a very winnable game for both sides and you can expect both to trade blows as they go out with the intention of taking all 3 points.

Over 1.5 goals:
Morecambe: 75%
Accrington: 60%

BTTS:
Morecambe: 67%
Accrington: 40%

Two sides in serious danger of going down meet here. Basement club Morecambe are desperate to ignite some belief in to their campaign. They sit 7 points adrift of safety, the first spot of which is occupied by Accrington.

Morecambe will feel hard done by to not have gained many points recently. BTTS has landed in 6 of their last 7 league games and they’ve found the net against some of the league’s best sides; yet in that run they haven’t managed a single victory.

Over 1.5 goals:
Northampton: 77%
Swindon: 65%

BTTS:
Northampton: 64%
Swindon: 38%

Massive clash in League Two as 3rd meet 5th. Northampton have shown themselves to be a serious force, scoring more goals (37) than anyone else in the division.

They’ve put together a really impressive string of results. Unbeaten in 8 which includes wins against Carlisle (4th), Bradford (9th) and Stevenage (2nd). Sam Hoskins leads the scoring charts in the league too with 14 goals in 17 games.

Swindon have struggled through December and have given up a lot of ground in the promotion race, including to Northampton. There’s no doubting the quality in the Swindon side though. Their underlying metrics are very solid. A decent xG and a modest xGA suggests their form should even out sooner rather than later.