Fulham vs Newcastle
Maybe not the most glamorous game on paper, but I expect this to be an absolute belter.
Fulham games have averaged 3.29 goals so far this season. They have the joint highest hit rate for BTTS in the league with 6/7 of their games seeing this selection land.
They’ve averaged an xG of 1.37 and with Mitrovic leading the line, they only need half a chance to score. The big Serb has 6 in 7 this season and netted 4 in 2 during the international break.
Although potent in attack, Fulham suffer an average xGA of 1.80 which is very high.
Newcastle games have seen an average fo 2.14 goals this season with 4/7 seeing BTTS land.
Isak and Guimaraes are absent for the visitors but ASM could return and bolster their chances.
Wilson is also back training and should start with the big Swede unavailable.
Newcastle have scored in 5/7 games this season and averaged a very solid xG of 1.49.
I expect both teams to approach this pretty gung-ho. Fulham’s style lends itself to goals and Newcastle, even with some absentees, have the quality to make their mark.
Newcastle matches see a huge average of 12.71 corners per game this season. Every single Toon game this season has seen at least 9 match corners, all their away games have seen a minimum of 10.
Newcastle themselves take an average of 7.57 corners per game and have hit the mark for 3 or more in 6/7 matches this season.
As for Fulham, their games average 9.57 corners.
They take an average of 4.43 which is of course much lower than Newcastle but still comfortably above the 3 we need.
They’ve also managed 3 or more in 6/7 games this season.
Fulham matches have been brilliant for cards this season. They’re picking up an average of 3 cards per game this season; they’re yet to escape a single match without getting 2 or more cards.
Overall their matches have averaged 4.86 cards. Their team is full of tough tacklers and hot heads, most notably the likes of Mitrovic and star summer signing Palhinha.
Newcastle were a real favourite for card bets last year. They’re a tough, aggressive and combative side who love to get stuck in and leave their mark, under Eddie Howe they’ve become a very gritty side.
Their matches have averaged 3.71 cards this season and they’ve had at least 1 or more in all of their away games and they’ve averaged 2 cards per game.
This could be a real tussle across the pitch between two firm handed sides. The likes of Joelinton and Palhinha battling it out should make for a very tough contest.
Darren England is the man in the middle here, he’s taken charge of 4 games this season and averaged 4.25 cards per game.
Strasbourg vs Rennes
It almost felt right to revisit the side who landed my 25/1 treble a couple of weeks ago.
An 85th minute Strasbourg goal sealed the deal in an enthralling game with Montpellier that saw 3 goals, 14 corners and 8 cards.
Strasbourg don’t have the most incredible goal average this season at 1.88. However, 6/8 of their matches have seen BTTS – they love a 1-1 scoreline, basically.
They’ve got excellent quality in attack with Habib Diallo and Kevin Gameiro. Ludovic Ajorque is also pushing for a return following an injury lay off.
Rennes are in good form, unbeaten in 4 matches and they’ve shown themselves to be a serious force going forward.
They’ve already netted 14 goals this season and they’re actually trailing that slightly when you look at their metrics.
They produce an average xG of over 2.00, which is seriously impressive. They play a wonderful free flowing attacking style and chances are never at a premium in their games.
The same as Strasbourg, BTTS has landed in 6/8 games for Rennes this season.
Strasbourg take an average of 3.88 corners this season. Again, similar to their goal output it’s not that high but their success rate for the selection is actually very good.
They’ve taken 3 or more corners in every single game this season.
They ship plenty too, they’re conceding an average of 5.75 per game and have conceded 3 or more in 7/8 games.
As for Rennes, they’ve averaged 5 corners per game so far this season. With 6/8 of their matches seeing them take 3 or more corners.
They suffer enough against to open the door for Strasbourg too. When playing away this season Rennes have conceded an average of 5.50 corners per game.
Cards have been frankly ridiculous in Ligue 1 this season, with a clear instruction from the governing body to really crack down this season.
There’s been a staggering 34 red cards in Ligue 1 already this season, by comparison, the Premier League has seen 4.
There was 11 sending offs in just 1 match day in Ligue 1.
Strasbourg matches have seen an average of 4.50 cards this season. They’ve picked up 2.13 of those.
As for Rennes, they’ve also averaged 4.50 cards per game. They’ve been badly behaved though, averaging 2.88 cards per game. They’re yet to have a match where one of their players isn’t booked.
The referee for this one is Eric Watellier. He’s taken charge of 5 Ligue 1 fixtures this season, handing out 18 yellows and 1 red. An average of 3.80 cards per game.
Inter vs Roma
Inter top the goal charts in Italy this season. If you want entertainment, Inter have been the side to see.
There’s been an average of 3.41 goals in Inter’s matches so far and of their 7 outings, 5 have seen BTTS land and 6 have seen 3 or more match goals.
Prior to the international break they were beaten 3-1 by Udinese and slipped to 7th, 1 point behind opponents Roma.
Serie A is looking incredibly competitive this season so 3 points for either side could be huge here at such an early stage. So I’d expect both to really go for it.
Mourinho’s men have wobbled slightly following a strong start to the season.
BTTS hasn’t been a huge feature of their games this season but they have more than enough firepower to score here but I struggle to see how they keep Inter at bay.
Roma have scored in 5/7 games this season and with Dybala now up to speed, they have an elite attack with him, Abraham and also Andrea Belotti.
‘Big’ clashes in Italy rarely fail to produce the goods. They’re not the cagey affairs we see here.
Roma have averaged an xG of 2.18 this season which is massive and shows there’s far more to come from them.
Inter also average a huge xG of 2.38.
With so much threat in both attacks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a basketball score here.
Inter are an absolute beast for corners. Their matches seen an average of 10.71, they themselves take an average of 6.14; that number rises to 7.33 when playing at the San Siro.
They’ve not had any less than 4 corners in a single game this season, so we should be comfortable in hitting the mark for 3.
At home, Inter are also conceding 5 per game and every side visiting the San Siro this season has taken a minimum of 4 corners.
Roma games average 9.28 corners and Mourinho’s side have taken an average of 5.14 per game.
They’ve had 5 or more in 6/7 games so far this season. They’ve also conceded at least 3 in every away game.
Inter’s matches have seen an average of 4.14 cards per game. They’ve picked up 1.43 of those.
There’s plenty of potential culprits in the Inter line up with the likes of Calhanoglu, Barella, Dimarco, Dumfries and Acerbi all regular offenders throughout their career.
As for Roma, their games average 4.71 cards.
They are only averaging 1 per game, but they’ve all come away from home. They’ve had 7 cards in their 4 away matches and have had at least 1 booking in every game.
Again, these games rarely disappoint for controversy. The last meeting finished 3-1 to Inter with each team getting 2 cards.
Davide Massa is the man in charge for this one, he’s averaged 3.34 cards per game this season.
He’s only taken charge of 1 Serie A game, in that match he handed out 4 yellow cards and awarded 33 fouls.