2/1 Goals Galore

AVG goals:

Fiorentina: 2.50
Sassuolo: 2.50

Over 1.5 goals:

Fiorentina: 75%
Sassuolo: 69%

Over 2.5 goals:

Fiorentina: 44%
Sassuolo: 62%

Two sides here who’ve had pretty lacklustre seasons and find themselves in 10th and 16th, respectively, separated by 4 points.

Fiorentina returned from the break with a 1-1 draw against Monza. Whilst Sassuolo fell to a disappointing 2-1 defeat to Sampdoria despite going off at 1.7 favourites against a side who’d won just 1 league game all season.

Fiorentina have been unfortunate so far and things should level out for them sooner or later, they’re averaging a very solid xG of 1.63 and there’s real talent in this squad.

As for Sassuolo, it’s in their DNA to attack. They want to play expansive football and win the ‘right way’. With Domenico Berardi in their team, they have an x factor that sides around them simply don’t have.

AVG goals:

Eupen: 3.50
Charleroi: 3.06

Over 1.5 goals:
Eupen: 65%
Charleroi: 67%

Over 2.5 goals:
Eupen: 61%
Charleroi: 65%

Been a while since we visited Belgium and just look at those glorious goal stats. These two sit side by side in the table too, level on points; hanging in the balance between the relegation and promotion groups. 3 points is on offer here for whoever wants it more and I expect an end to end game with both sides trading blow for blow.

Eupen suffer a remarkable 2.13 xGA per game. You’ll rarely see a figure that high. For anyone unaware of xG, that means they’re expected to concede over 2 goals per game – based on the quality and number of chances they allow other teams to have.

AVG goals:

Dorking: 3.92
Oldham: 2.78

Over 1.5 goals:

Dorking: 92%
Oldham: 83%

Over 2.5 goals:

Dorking: 77%
Oldham: 61%

It’s a goals bet, so of course we’re adding Dorking in to the mixer. No side across the top 4 divisions and National League sees more goals per match than Dorking. They’re punching well above their weight in what is somewhat of a feel good story at a club where the chairman is also the manager.

They’ve netted 43 goals this season, that’s the highest in the division bar the top 3 sides – Notts County, Wrexham & Chesterfield. They find themselves 15th on account of their 49 goals conceded; the highest tally in the league.

Oldham are in complete turmoil and despite a good 2-2 draw with Notts Co last time out, things still look bleak for this historic club. They currently occupy the final relegation spot and simply have to start taking points from games like this. They’ve scored at least once in each of their last 5 games, over 2.5 has landed in each of those 5.

AVG goals:

Cambridge: 2.50
Bristol Rovers: 3.28

Over 1.5 goals:

Cambridge: 67%
Bristol Rovers: 80%

Over 2.5 goals:

Cambridge: 50%
Bristol Rovers: 64%

If you want entertainment, look no further than Bristol Rovers. No side in League One has seen more goals this season. The Gas are yet to have a goalless game on the road and Joey Barton’s men have continued their chaotic approach from last season that saw them promoted on the final day thanks to a 7-0 win.

Their last 4 matches in the league have all seen 3 or more match goals.

Concerns are growing for Cambridge, who are definitely embroiled in a relegation battle. They shipped 5 goals to Sheff Wed last time out and are conceding an average of 1.62 goals per game. They’ll take solace from the fact that 17 of their 24 points have come at home.

AVG goals:

Grimsby: 2.30
Burton: 3.28

Over 1.5 goals:

Grimsby: 70%
Burton: 88%

Over 2.5 goals:

Grimsby: 43%
Burton: 56%

My only inclusion of an FA Cup game. Wherever Burton go, I follow for a goals bet along with Dorking and Bristol Rovers, they’re one of my favourite sides to back in this market this season.

Despite occupying a relegation place, they’ve netted 32 goals, more than sides right up the top end of League One. However their 50 goals conceded has cost them dearly and Grimsby will no doubt fancy their chances of upsetting a ropey defence.

The League Two outfit are actually the favourites for this one, which tells you plenty about how this match is expected to play out. I think there’s a real chance we see both teams score here. Burton are adept in attack but very vulnerable in defence, the Grimsby lads will be confident of securing their place in the next round.

AVG goals:

AZ: 2.93
Vitesse: 3.36

Over 1.5 goals:

AZ: 86%
Vitesse: 86%

Over 2.5 goals:

AZ: 64%
Vitesse: 79%

Some more incredible stats from another European inclusion here. Alkmaar were in scintillating for before the break and will be keen to pick up where they left off, especially on home turf; where they’ve netted in every single game this season.

They won’t have it all their own way, Vitesse average an impressive 1.68 xG on the road and have more than enough talent in the squad to ruffle a few feathers of their opponents. Vitesse’s xGA of 1.56 is a concern for them though against a side who score not far shy of 2 goals per game.