Ajax vs Vitesse
Ajax players will be expected to respond following a damaging defeat to arch rivals PSV who are now 2 points clear at the top.
A win here though moves Ajax back to the summit.
They’ve scored 24 goals in 6 home matches this season.
Overall their games have averaged 4.25 goals, that increased to 4.83 at home.
There’s been over 2.5 goals in 75% of their matches this season, that rises to 83% at home.
Ajax average an astonishing 2.87 xG, that goes up to 3.6 at home which is ridiculous. They could comfortably cover this line on their own.
As for Vitesse, they’re having a disappointing season, sitting 14th in the league.
Their games have been full of goals too, they’ve averaged 3.25 per game. With 75% of them landing for over 2.5.
They average a 1.55 xG which is very decent and they can definitely hurt Ajax.
Their issue has come with keeping goals out. They’ve been leaking goals, on average they’re shipping 2.17 per game.
Not ideal when travelling to face a side scoring 4 per match on their own turf.
Frankfurt vs Hoffenheim
Frankfurt made up the first part of Saturday’s winner and I’m backing goals in their game again.
Their average now sits at 3.69 per game, the 2nd highest in the Bundesliga.
69% of their matches have had over 2.5 goals. They’ve managed just 2 clean sheets so far this season.
Their front line is incredibly talented with the likes of Jesper Lindstrom, Daichi Kamada and Randal Kolo-Muani all putting up impressive numbers this season.
They create plenty of chances, averaging 1.61 xG. Again, thanks to those forwards and creators like Mario Gotze.
Each of their last 5 have had over 2.5 goals and I’d expect this one to follow the trend.
Hoffenheim have been regular entertainers over the last few years.
This season their games are averaging 2.69 goals and 54% of them have had over 2.5.
That jumps slightly to 2.86 and 57% when playing at home.
Their metrics are amazing for goals, they average 1.81 xG for and 1.48 against.
Those numbers are even crazier at home where they’re creating an xG of 2.06 but suffering 1.51 against.
I’d expect both teams to find the net here. Frankfurt have produced some impressive results lately, most notably a 5-1 demolition of Leverkusen. I can see them pressing on for all 3 points.
Torquay vs Dorking
From Germany’s top flight to the 5th tier of English football.
Torquay made some headlines on Sunday as they stole a 95th minute equaliser at home to Derby in the FA Cup in front of the cameras.
It’s a welcome distraction from an awful league campaign which has them sitting bottom of the National League.
Even if brief, the feel good factor is circling. Prior to the Derby result they pummeled Aldershot 6-1 here. So it’s a tough time to be visiting Plainmoor.
Torquay’s games this season have had an average of 3.3 goals. That rises to 4.00 at home, where 62% of their matches have had over 2.5.
Their issue has been defensively. They’ve got one of the worst defences in the league and it’s no surprise given that they’re surrendering 2.37 xG per game.
As for Dorking, we know how crazy they are. They also have a huge xGA of 2.00, but they can attack too, creating 1.56 xG of their own.
Their games this season have averaged 4.19 goals and a ridiculous 88% of them have had over 2.5 goals.
They’re punching above their weight at this level but they don’t fear anyone and they’ll see this as a change to get a huge 3 points.
Motherwell vs Celtic
We finish in Scotland as the Champions take a short trip down the road to face 9th placed Motherwell.
Celtic extender their lead at the summit to 6 points at the weekend. 2 goals in the 90th and 92nd minute sealed a 4-2 win over Dundee United.
Then on Sunday, Rangers fell to defeat at St Johnstone leaving Celtic with clear breathing room.
They’ll want to keep up the momentum though and they do that in the only way they know how – scoring goals.
Celtic have scored 46 times in 13 matches this season. Their games have averaged 4.38 goals.
On the road, they’ve been even more entertaining. An average of 4.71 per game with 86% of their away matches landing for an over 2.5 bet.
They themselves score an average of 3.54 goals per game from an xG of 2.79. Again, we have a situation where one side could easily cover the line by themselves.
As for Motherwell. Their last 3 home league matches have had over 2.5 goals. It’s 4 in a row in all comps, with Celtic coming here to romp to a 4-0 victory in the cup just a couple of weeks ago.
Motherwell’s metrics are good. They average a 1.58 xG themselves and given that Celtic are prone to a defensive lapse, they can definitely contribute here.
Celtic conceded 2 at the weekend, 3 away to Hearts and 2 at St Mirren, they’re far from untouchable.