Man City vs Tottenham
Kulusevski to have a shot looks like a good addition to a bet builder to me, he was one of the very few bright sparks Spurs had during their North London Derby defeat at home to Arsenal.
The Swedish winger had 3 shots in total in that game and he’s averaging 1.94 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League. Odds of 2.25 for a couple of shots looks like great value, however I’m going for the safer option of just a single shot.
Another reason to back this one is that he’s up against Joao Cancelo who’s not the best defender in the Premier League. Great overall player, but any talented wide player would fancy their chances against him.
Riyad Mahrez is getting a fair number of minutes on the right hand side of City’s attack, and he’s my favoured option for a shot on target.
Mahrez is averaging 2.28 shots per 90 minutes and just shy of one shot on target per game at 0.94. I’ve had a look at previous match longs and there’s been a great success rate for this selection of late. Mahrez has had at least one shot on target in 7 of his last 8 appearances for Man City in all competitions.
Mahrez had been in great individual form before City’s underwhelming team performance at Old Trafford, albeit a poor decision from the officials let them down. Mahrez has scored 4 goals in his last 6, and 3 goals across his last 4.
Although 0.71 fouls drawn P/90 isn’t a staggering number, Haaland’s pace and physicality will naturally cause any defender an issue. If he looks to target Romero, then he will find success. The Argentinian averages 1.55 fouls P/90, and has committed a foul in all but 1 start this season.
He committed 4, and was booked, last time out against Arsenal, and should face similar levels of pressure against a possession based City side.
Romero fouls in his last 5 league games: 4, 1, 3, 1, 2
Romero’s rash nature is evidenced by his 2.33 tackles P/90, and when you consider that he’ll likely also have Grealish (3.49 fouls drawn P/90) driving down his channel, problems could realistically stack up for the centre back.
Tottenham don’t have the best discipline and they don’t have the worst. They’re currently 10th in the Premier League when it comes to the number of cards picked up, 37 yellows and a red card after 19 matches. They’re averaging 2.05 cards per game.
I love Tottenham for cards purely because of the personnel. Romero at the back who often loses the plot, Richarlison the same who was on the edge last weekend. You’ve got the midfield enforcers in Bentancur, Bissouma and Hojbjerg, and then Kane up front who’s not stranger to a late and rash tackle.
Tottenham have had two or more cards in each of their last three Premier League matches. Across those three outings, they picked up a total of 10 cards.
Spurs have had 2+ cards in each of their last five matches against Man City in the Premier League.