Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart
Following what’s been a horrendous Bundesliga campaign, Leverkusen have shown serious signs of life in recent weeks.
A 5-0 demolition of Union Berlin was followed by a 2-1 win away to Koln.
This squad is undoubtedly too talented to be in 13th.
The one consistency for Leverkusen this season has been goals, their games have averaged 3.5 goals; the 3rd highest in the Bundesliga.
a massive 79% of their games have had over 2.5 goals, at home those figures rise to 3.71 and 86%.
They create plenty of chances with an average xG of 1.42. What’s cost them is a woeful defence who are suffering an average xGA of 1.75.
As for Stuttgart, they’re right in the relegation battle having survived in the dying seconds of last seasons campaign.
Their matches this season have averaged 3.07 goals with 64% of them landing for a wager on over 2.5 goals.
Those numbers go through the roof on the road. 3.67 goals on average and a whopping 83% strike rate for over 2.5 goals.
FC Volendam vs FC Utrecht
Another familiar stop on a Goals Galore as we head to the Eredivisie.
Hosts Volendam are routed to the foot of the table. Largely thanks to their paper thin defence that has conceded 35 times in 13 games; the highest in the league.
Their games have averaged 3.69 goals and yes, largely from a poor defence but they do score an average of 1 per game and striker Robert Muhren has one of the highest individual xG’s in the league.
62% of their games have had over 2.5 goals and they have the 2nd highest strike rate for BTTS in the league (69%).
They average an xG of 1.31 which is decent, however an xGA of 2.06 is hideous and costing them dearly.
The visitors are absolutely flying. Since a 6-1 defeat to PSV, they’ve won 4 games in a row.
They’re currently on a run of 7 straight games landing for over 2.5 goals too.
They have the highest average goals away from home in the whole division (4.50) and 83% of their matches on the road have had over 2.5 goals.
In current form, they should be able to carve apart this shaky Volendam defence. Especially given that they’ve averaged an xG of 2.29 across their last 3 league matches.
Zulte Waregem vs Eupen
Bloody love Belgium for goals and I’m back with a side who featured in last weeks winner – Zulte Waregem.
Zulte are a mental bunch. Their games average 3.31 goals, with 62% of them landing for over 2.5 goals. They’ve also managed just 1 clean sheet in 16.
Each of their last 6 matches in the league have had over 2.5 goals. Despite being 2nd bottom too, they’ve scored 11 goals across that period.
To get points, their metrics suggest they need to score plenty, given that they average an xGA of 2.06.
This is a huge clash, as Eupen sit just 2 places and 3 points above Zulte.
They’re also right alongside each other in the goal charts. Eupen games average 3.25 goals and an identical 62% strike rate for over 2.5 goals.
5 of Eupen’s last 6 have seen over 2.5 goals and like Zulte, they’ve been netting plenty of goals.
They’ve scored 8 in their last 5 league matches, which includes 2 against both Anderlecht and Liege.
Yet, they then went and lost 3-0 to lower league opposition in midweek. Really highlighting their inconsistency.
Huge 3 points on offer here. Expect these two to trade haymakers for 90 minutes.
Aberdeen vs Dundee United
We finish in Scotland and we’re after just 2 goals here, rather than 3. The price for 2 is generous enough.
Aberdeen have some crazy metrics, they create an average xG of 1.72 and score 2 goals per game on average.
However, they’re also conceding an average xG of 2.00. Basically, it’s chances galore at both ends.
Only Celtic games have had more goals this season with The Dons games having an average of 3.64 goals and 93% of them landing for over 1.5.
At Pittodrie, that is even higher, 4.50 average and a perfect 100% hit rate for over 2.5 goals.
In all comps, they’re on a 12 match run where every game has had over 1.5 goals.
As for Dundee United, they’ve been a rollercoaster this season. Trashed 9-0 by Celtic and 7-0 by Az Alkmaar, yet they won the reverse of this fixture 4-0 and come in to this after repeating that scoreline against Kilmarnock.
Their games have averaged 3.13 goals and 73% have had over 1.5 goals. On the road, 86% of their matches have had over 1.5 goals.
They’ve shown they can score goals, not only with those scores mentioned above but they also netted twice at Celtic Park last week.
Their issue has been in defence. United average an XGA of 2.00 and will do well to not have Aberdeen cover this 1.5 line not heir own.
In that last meeting there was a total of 4.30 xG, United had 3.16 of that.