Tottenham vs Sporting CP
Both Tottenham and Sporting will be desperate for a win tonight, and goals should naturally flow as a result.
Tottenham currently sit top of the group on 7 points, knowing that a win against Sporting will qualify them for the last 16 with a game to spare.
All but 1 of Spurs’ games in the Champions League have finished with over 1.5 goals, they’ve scored 5 and conceded 4 thus far.
Their domestic figures also make for good reading. Conte’s side have scored 23, and conceded 14 in their 12 premier league games. 10 of these 12 fixtures have finished with a minimum of 2 goals.
Goals in last 5 Tottenham games (all competitions): 3, 2, 2, 5, 1
Sporting’s absolute need to win this game to stay in contention for the knockouts means that they are likely to play an open and expansive game as they hunt for goals.
All 4 of Sporting’s Champions League ties have finished with over 1.5 goals. They’ve both scored and conceded 6, highlighting that they’re both potent in attack, but also shaky at the back.
Sporting’s domestic fixtures are incredibly goal heavy. They’ve scored 21, and conceded 13 in their opening 10. All of their league matches have finished with over 1.5 goals, and their need for a win tonight should see that trend continue.
Goals in last 5 Sporting CP games (all competitions): 4, 2, 3, 5, 4
The reverse fixture finished 2-0 in Sporting’s favour, and a similar result tonight would serve us well.
If the last encounter between these two is anything to go by, then there should be shots aplenty in this one.
The reverse tie saw a total of 11 shots on target, 5 from Tottenham and a further 6 from Sporting.
Tottenham have averaged 5.25 shots on target per 90 in the Premier League, and with Sporting conceding 3.50 shots on target per 90 domestically, Spurs should fancy their chances to land a few here.
They’ve failed to hit 3 shots on target twice in the Champions League, but have found the target at least 3 times in all but 1 of their Premier League games.
Tottenham shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 5, 2, 7, 8, 3
Sporting are averaging 5.80 shots per 90 in Portugal. The open nature of this game should see this trend continue, and Tottenham’s lack of defensive stability (4.17 shots on target conceded per 90) should allow Sporting to get some efforts in at goal.
Like Spurs, Sporting have failed to hit 3 shots on target twice in the Champions League, but this is largely down to the early red cards received in both fixtures against Marseille.
Sporting CP shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 10, 2, 3, 2, 7
Both of these sides love a card, and their last meeting was a feisty affair with 5 in total.
Tottenham’s combative style of play, coupled with the significance of tonight’s game, makes them a great shout for cards.
They’ve picked up a booking in all but 2 of their matches in all competitions, and have received 11 in total in their 4 Champions League ties.
Tottenham cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 4, 0, 1, 3, 2
Sporting, perhaps even more so than Spurs, are incredibly hot headed. They’ve picked up 3.20 cards per 90 in the league, and have amassed 13 in 4 in Europe, including 3 reds.
They need to win, and will play dirty. If things aren’t going their way, then expect the cards to flow.
Sporting cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 2, 6, 3, 4, 4
Barcelona vs Bayern Munich
Bayern may have already qualified for the last 16, but Barcelona have to win tonight to give themselves any hope of qualifying for the knockouts.
Barca are already an effective attacking outfit, but the need to win should result in an even more open and expansive game, and that’s good for goals on the side of both Barca and Bayern.
3 out of 4 of Barca’s Champions League outings have finished with over 1.5 goals. They’ve bagged 8 goals themselves, and have conceded 7 for an average of 3.75 goals per game.
Domestically, the Spanish giants are much more consistent in front of goal. They’ve failed to score just once in La Liga, and have netted a total of 28 goals in 11 games. 8 of these 11 fixtures have also had a minimum of 2 goals.
Goals in last 5 Barcelona games (all competitions): 4, 3, 4, 6, 1
All 4 of Bayern’s group games have finished with a minimum of 2 goals. They’ve scored a quite ridiculous total of 13, and conceded just twice, averaging the same number of goals per game as Barcelona at 3.75.
Things are no different in the Bundesliga. 32 goals scored and 8 conceded means that their league fixtures are averaging 3.64 goals. All but 1 of these matches has finished with over 1.5 goals.
Goals in last 5 Bayern games (all competitions): 2, 7, 5, 6, 4
The reverse fixture finished 2-0 to Bayern, and once again, that would see us over the line here. However, I expect Barca to show up for this given the circumstances. They’ve only failed to score once at home this season, and that should get the ball rolling for over 1.5 goals.
Each side mustered 4 efforts on target in the reverse fixture, and that would do us nicely here.
Barcelona are averaging 6.18 shots on target per 90 in La Liga, even managing 5 against Real Madrid.
Xavi’s side will also take confidence from the fact that even the German champions are conceding over 3 shots on target per game domestically, 3.27 to be exact.
They’ve hit the target 3 times in all but 1 of their Champions League, and have amassed 28 efforts on target in total.
Barcelona shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 7, 5, 5, 11, 5
Nagelsmann’s Bayern side have had 8.27 shots on target per game in the Bundesliga, and have managed to have a minimum of 3 shots on target in all of their 17 games in all competitions.
They’ve had 36 shots on target in their 4 Champions League ties, and will relish the opportunity to test Ter Stegen.
Barca are conceding 3.75 shots on target per game in the group stage, and the likelihood of a far more aggressive and attacking approach means that Bayern should find plenty of space for efforts at goal.
Bayern shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 8, 15, 8, 8, 3
Barcelona will do anything within their powers for 3 points tonight as they look to stay within reach of Inter Milan, and that includes bending the rules.
They’ve received a card in all but 2 of their 15 games this campaign, averaging 2.09 per 90 domestically, and have picked up 5 in 4 in the Champions League.
Barcelona cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 2, 0, 2, 2, 2
Bayern won’t be playing under the same pressures as their Spanish opponent’s but they will battle, and they will foul in their attempts to cruise into the last 16.
Bayern are averaging 1.82 cards per game in the Bundesliga, more than enough to be a team of interest in this department tonight. They’ve also fallen afoul of the referees book 5 times in their 4 European outings, including twice against Barcelona in September.
The German side tend to pick up more cards against better quality opposition (6 against Dortmund, 2 against Inter, 2 against Barcelona, 4 against Monchengladbach).
Bayern cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 2, 0, 0, 2, 6
Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen
Another fixture in which goals should be a consequence of the manner in which the game is played.
Atletico are often known for being stubborn and negative against strong sides in Europe, but this is one instance in which they can’t afford to sit back. They’ve scored just twice in the Champions League, but have conceded 5, for a total of 1.75 goals per game on average.
Their domestic stats make for much better reading in this regard. 18 goals scored and 9 conceded averages out at 2.45 goals per game in La Liga. Additionally, all but 2 of Atletico’s 11 games have had over 1.5 goals, and they’ve scored in all of them.
Goals in last 5 Atletico Madrid games (all competitions): 3, 2, 1, 0, 3
With just 2 goals scored, and 6 conceded, Leverkusen’s fortunes look bleak. Although for us, 2.00 goals per game in Europe makes for good reading, even better when considering that both of Leverkusen’s 2 goals came against tonight’s opponents.
Contrastingly, the German outfits’ Bundesliga games have been goal heavy. 16 scored, and 23 conceded in 11 games results in a 3.55 goals per game average. Over 1.5 goals would have landed in all but 1 of these fixtures.
Goals in last 5 Bayer Leverkusen games (all competitions): 4, 6, 3, 4, 2
Whilst capable of scoring against Atletico, as evidenced in the reverse fixture, Leverkusen’s defensive record has been awful under new manager Xabi Alonso. With both teams desperate for points, goals should flow, especially given Leverkusen’s existing frailties.
Atletico and Leverkusen mustered 3, and 5, respectively in the reverse fixture, and these numbers could well increase tonight given what’s at stake.
Atletico are averaging 4.82 shots on target per game in La Liga, and have failed just the once in 11 matches to hit the target at least 3 times.
Whilst they might be struggling to bury their chances in Europe, it’s certainly not for the want of trying. Diego Simeone’s outfit have had at least 3 shots on target in all 4 of their group games, and have had 20 in total.
Atletico Madrid shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 3, 4, 1, 9, 7
Leverkusen’s Bundesliga games this season have seen plenty of efforts at both ends. They’re averaging 5.27 shots on target per 90 (and conceding 4.55), and much like tonight’s opponents, have only failed to hit 3 shots on target once in 11 league games.
Stats in this metric are no different for Leverkusen in the Champions League. They’ve had at least 3 efforts on target in all 4 group games, even managing 6 when down to 10 men against Porto.
Bayer Leverkusen shots on target in last 5 games (all competitions): 5, 2, 4, 7, 6
At face value, if there was a game for cards then this is one you’d be looking towards.
Atletico have long been labelled the masters of the dark arts in European football. They’ve picked up 3.18 cards per game in La Liga, and unsurprisingly, have yet to go a game without receiving a card this season.
They’ve had 6 bookings in 4 group games in Europe and their petulant nature should see them in the book again tonight.
Atletico Madrid cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 3, 3, 6, 2, 3
Leverkusen too, have been racking up the cards this season. An average of 2.63 cards a game in the Bundesliga is a stat reinforced by the fact that they’ve received a booking in 10 of their 11 games domestically.
They’ve had 13 cards in 4 in the Champions League, receiving a minimum of 2 in each game so far.
Bayer Leverkusen cards in last 5 games (all competitions): 3, 4, 3 ,1, 4