Torino vs Verona
Torino managed a decent spell of form back in late October and early November. They picked up 10 points from a possible 15, with wins against AC Milan and Udinese, as well as a draw away at Roma.
Goals have been relatively difficult to come by for the home side, with just 16 in 15, but, what does bode well is the fact that they’ve scored in 12 of their 15 fixtures, and 8 goals in their last 5 suggests their goalscoring form is on the up.
Defensively, they’re relatively sound as well. They’ve conceded just 17, and have only conceded more than 1 on 3 occasions.
What Torino can pride themselves on is their chance limitation. An xGA of 1.35 P/90 is the 4th best in Serie A, and suggests that they’re able to stifle their opponents, a bad omen for a team as poor as Verona.
As for the away side, they’ve had a shocking start to the season. Their 1 win came at home to 2nd from bottom Sampdoria and since that victory, Verona have lost 10 on the bounce.
Goals have been few and far between, with Verona netting just 12 times in their 15 outings.
Perhaps even more worrying are their defensive frailties. Verona have conceded 29 times, more than any other side in the Italian top flight, and are yet to keep a clean sheet this season.
With an xG of 1.3 P/90, and an xGA of 1.83, their fortunes are unlikely to change against a Torino side who will be looking to carry on from where they left off prior to the World Cup.
Lecce vs Lazio
Lazio will be looking to continue their fine start to the season, and consolidate their spot in the top 4, when they travel away to Lecce.
Currently sat in 4th, Lazio have mustered 9 wins from their opening 15 games. Their 3 losses shouldn’t exactly alarm anyone either, with 2 coming against Napoli and Juve.
Goalscoring form has been solid for the side from Rome. 26 goals in 15 games for an average of 1.73 per game is very respectable and puts them 4th in the goalscoring charts. Even more evident of their quality up top is the fact that they’ve failed to score just 3 times this season.
Defensively is where this Lazio team shines however. Just 11 goals conceded means that only Juve have a better defence in Serie A. 9 clean sheets from 15 is an incredible return, and Lazio have conceded more than once on just 3 occasions.
As for Lecce, they sit 16th in the table, and their stats this season would suggest that lazio shouldn’t face too much trouble.
Lecce have won just 3 games this season, the most recent of those victories coming against a poor Sampdoria side sitting 2nd from bottom.
Goals have been a scarcity, with just 14 in 15, and they’ve only scored more than 1 in 3 of their fixtures. Against Lazio, they’ll likely need multiple to get anything out of the game, unlikely against such a strong defence.
They’ve also kept just the one clean sheet, that too, coming against Sampdoria.
With an xG of 0.95 P/90, and an xGA of 1.73 P/90, Lecce will do well to get anything at all against a much fancied, and much stronger, lazio side.
Fiorentina vs Monza
Serie A new boys Monza sit just 3 points behind opponents Fiorentina in the league table, and with both looking to return to winning ways following the World Cup hiatus, goals look a formality.
Both Monza and Fiorentina have been rather profitable for over 1.5 goals this season. That very selection has landed in 80% of Monza’s outings (12 of 15) and 73% of Fiorentina’s (11 of 15).
The two sides also have an identical total when it comes to goals scored and conceded combined. Monza have scored 16 and conceded 22 for a total of 38, with Fiorentina scoring 18 and conceding 20. This averages out at 2.53 goals per game, comfortably over the 1.5 benchmark.
Away side Monza have failed to score just 5 times this season, and have only kept the same number of clean sheets. An xG of 1.44 P/90 is respectable, whilst an xGA of 1.40 P/90 also suggests that they’re liable to concede chances.
Much like Monza, Fiorentina have failed to score in 5 of their games, with only 4 clean sheets. They’ve amassed a quite ridiculous xG of 2.10 P/90, putting them 2nd in the league behind Napoli for this metric. With such quality chance creation at their disposal, Fiorentina should trouble Monza throughout.
Both sides are capable of contributing to the scoreline here in what should be an entertaining tie.
Cremonese vs Juventus
Juventus went into the World Cup break off the back of 6 straight victories, and up against a Cremonese side languishing in the relegation zone, I expect them to extend that run to 7.
After a string of torrid performances that saw them win just 3 of their opening 9, Juventus now find themselves as the form team in the league.
Juventus have notched up 24 goals this season for an average of 1.6 per game. In their recent run of victories, that average has increased to 2.00 per game, with 12 goals across their 6 wins.
Perhaps even more impressive is their defensive stability. Juve have conceded just 7 goals all season, and have kept clean sheets in each of their last 6.
As for Cremonese, the stats are particularly bleak. They find themselves 3rd from bottom, and have yet to win a single game this season, and the likelihood of that changing against one of the giants of the Italian game is slim-to-none.
11 goals all season is a poor return for a side mustering a respectable 1.63 xG P/90. They’ve scored more than 1 goal in just 3 out of 15 games, and have fired blanks in 7 matches.
Their defensive stats are just as concerning. Cremonese have conceded 26 in 15, keeping just 3 clean sheets, and conceding a minimum of 2 goals on 8 separate occasions. With an xGA of 1.91 P/90, their defensive fortunes are unlikely to change against Juventus.
Even without the likes of Vlahovic, Pogba, and Cuadrado, Allegri’s men have more than enough to get the job done here.
Inter Milan vs Napoli
An exciting battle between two Italian giants here. Napoli currently lead the pack in Serie A and have scored goals galore this campaign, whereas Inter currently sit 5th and will be looking to close the gap to their opponents with a win.
Goals look a given here, no side has scored more than Napoli’s 37 in 15 this season. The team closest to them in that metric? Inter Milan with 34.
Inter have seen the BTTS selection land in 10 of their 15 fixtures, with only city rivals AC Milan having seen it land more. Napoli meanwhile have had this selection land in 9 of their games.
Inzaghi’s men have failed to score just once this season, and have scored multiple goals on 10 occasions and perhaps crucially, BTTS has landed in 5 out of 6 games against the league’s top 8 sides.
Chance creation shouldn’t be a problem for the home side. They have an xG of 1.98 P/90 at the San Siro this season. Just as important is their xGA of 1.45 P/90, suggesting they Napoli will have plenty of success.
As for the league leaders, Napoli have scored in all but a 0-0 draw against Fiorentina back in August. They’ve scored a minimum of 2 in 11 of their outings, and BTTS has landed in 4 out of 5 games against the league’s top 8 teams.
An xG of 2.35 P/90 dwarfs that of the rest of the league, and with the likes of Osimhen, Kvaratskhelia, Zielinksi, and more, at their disposal, chances will come thick and fast. Again, with an xGA of 1.28 P/90, Inter will find their chances to score.