Dortmund vs Man City
So, we start with Dortmund vs Man City. The second shortest priced game for over 1.5 goals behind the game between PSG and Maccabi Haifa.
Dortmund are averaging 2.91 goals per game in the Bundesliga where they’ve had over 1.5 goals scored in 64% of their matches. As for their efforts in the Champions League, they’ve had two or more goals scored in 100% of their matches so far.
They lost 2-1 at the Etihad and they put up a cracking fight. They took the lead through Jude Bellingham before throwing it away late on. Bellingham is the man; he’s scored on all four UCL matchweek’s so far – making history in doing so too.
Man City are averaging 4.27 goals per game in the Premier League and they’ve had two or more goals scored in 91% of their matches. City’s 0-0 in Copenhagen was a rarity with the red card taking part of the blame. Before that they’d picked up three successive wins of 0-4, 2-1 and 5-0.
Only Bayern and Leipzig average more shots per game than Dortmund in the Bundesliga. BVB are averaging 14.4 shots per game with 5.5 on target. When they’re at home, that shots on target average rises slightly to 5.70.
Dortmund have had 3+ shots on target in all Champions League matches bar the trip to the Etihad. However, they should be able to step it up a gear in front of the yellow wall.
Liverpool are averaging more shots per game than Man City in the Premier League but no one has got close to their efficiency of 6.50 shots on target per game. They average 5.8 shots on target away from home which is very good.
Dortmund are currently averaging 2.27 cards per game in the Bundesliga which seems quite high for a team you expect to dominate for the most part.
The Black and Yellow have had five yellows across four Champions League matches so far, and three of them came against Man City at the Etihad.
Zagreb vs Milan
I like this one for goals because I’m liking how it sits situationally. A point isn’t enough for Zagreb as their final game is Chelsea away which they’re likely to lose. As for Milan, they would then need to beat Salzburg which isn’t a sure thing considering they’ve already dropped points to them.
Zagreb have conceded in three Champions League games in a row since that shock 1-0 win over Chelsea got Tuchel the sack. Milan have had two or more goals in every game so far and they come into this after an aggregate 5-0 beating by Chelsea over the two meetings.
Milan beat Zagreb 3-1 in the first meeting between these two, and I fancy another entertaining game with it having added spice. Mislav Orsic scored for Zagreb in that one, he’s a player to have an eye on. He’s your typical one in two forward and he also scored vs Chelsea.
It’s arguable whether Zagreb are the minnows in the group but it’s between them and Salzburg and they’re both doing great. They both have a strong chance of reaching the knockout stages which is impressive.
When I put this bet together, I could imagine people thinking that Zagreb shots on target could be the risker element, however it’s something they’ve achieved in all four UCL matches so far. And this one has more on the line for them.
AC Milan are averaging 17.1 shots per game in Serie A, a number only bettered by Napoli. As for shots on target, they’re averaging 5.2 per game. The Italians struggled against Chelsea, but they had three shots on target in Salzburg and seven at home to Zagreb.
Zagreb aren’t the best for cards domestically because they dominate so heavily, but when it comes to Europe, things start to get tasty. The Croatian side are averaging 4.60 cards per match with 2.30 being handed to themselves on average.
Zagreb have had at least once card in every UCL group match so far. Last time they faced Milan, they picked up a couple of bookings.
Benfica vs Juventus
Finally, it’s a juicy one. Benfica have had a brilliant campaign so far, whereas Juventus have been woeful. Anything other than a win for them will put them out of the Champions League and even that might not be enough. They face PSG on the last day.
Benfica have been delivering for two or more goals in the Champions League, it’s happened in all four of their matches so far.
Even Juventus have been kind on the goals front. They had three or more goals in each of their first three and they come into this on the back of a 2-0 loss in Israel. They need a big response or it could get ugly back home.
Benfica average 4.80 shots on target per game in the Champions League and that rises to 5.50 when they’re playing at home.
Juventus are currently averaging the exact same at 4.80 shots on target per game and it falls just slightly to 4.50 when they’re away from home and that’s more than acceptable. Just three from them will do in a must win game.
Must win game for Juventus as I say, and with this likely being the end of a frustrating Champions League campaign, I can see frustration and unsporting behavior kicking in big time. The Italians picked up four cards when they were beaten 2-1 by Benfica at home.
Juventus are struggling domestically also and they’re averaging a couple of cards per game in Serie A. As for the Champions League, their average increases to 2.5 cards per game and they’ve had at least a single card in every single one of them.