Spain vs Germany
Olmo was brilliant in Spain’s match day 1 demolition of Costa Rica.
Drifting infield, finding pockets of space and carving the underdogs to pieces. He scored, assists and rattled off 4 shots, with 2 hitting the target.
He’s also a prime candidate for free kicks. Always an added bonus for a shots related bet.
Olmo averaged 1.33 SOT P/90 during WC qualifying.
Germany have fragilities in defence, as we saw against Japan. Olmo can definitely expose those.
In spite of Germany’s defeat, one thing really stood out and that’s how spritely Serge Gnabry was.
Given his stats pre-tournament and as a result of that opening game, he’s a fantastic price to hit the target just once.
Gnabry had 6 shots, 3 on target on match day 1. That builds on his average of 2.02 and 4.64, respectively, during Germany’s qualifying period.
Gnabry is dynamic, quick and a threat both from range and also as a poacher in the box.
I think Spain have been overrated as a result of blowing away Costa Rica.
Their defence is far from stable and Germany’s mobility and intricate play in attack can definitely hurt them. Above 1/2 for a player who averages 2+ SOT per game & had 3 in his first match, is brilliant value.
As has been well publicised, Spain made over 1,000 passes against Costa Rica, which is incredible.
It’s in their DNA. It’s what they do. Possession is king. Their side is built around players with ability and confidence on the ball, rather than pace or physicality.
Laporte is in the top 99 percentile for attempted passes, passes completed and progressive passes when compared to all centre backs across Europe’s top 5 leagues. He’s a monster in that department.
He attempted a frankly ridiculous 119 passes against Costa Rica.
In the euros last year, his numbers were ridiculous. He played 5 matches and he attempted 146, 141, 136, 89 and 60 passes. Only dropping below the line we need tonight in the draw with Poland, he effectively doubled the line on 3 occasions.
I expect Germany to allow Spain to have the ball at the back and do their presses in midfield and wide areas, meaning Laporte should see plenty of the ball.
Even in that destructive performance agaisnt Costa Rica, have still made a foul.
He’s a very aggressive, combative midfielder and he’s always int he thick of things, he was fouled 5 times in that game as well.
He commits a massive 3.82 fouls per 90 for Barcelona. That is a ridiculous number, that’s about as high as you’ll see at this tournament.
It’s all down to aggression and his bite, he’s not clumsy or uncoordinated, he’s just a bit of a b*****d. To be honest.
With the likes of Gnabry, Muller, Gundogan and most notabley; Musiala, rotating around him, Gavi will be right in the battleground as usual.
Musiala drew 3 fouls in the opening game and only Adeyemi was fouled more on average in their qualifiers. With the young magician impeded an average of 2.50 times P/90.
Spain are a bit of a beats for corners, they’ve averaged 5.56 over qualifying + the opening game.
They got 5 against Costa Rica. They were so dominant and incisive that their corner count was lower than their goals.
Germany are much stronger defensively and will force the Spaniard’s in to wide areas, as better teams often try to do – this shoild result in a high corner count for Enrique’s men.
Germany conceded 6 corners in their opener against Japan with the Japanese side seeing a lot of success down the wings and in behind the German back line.