7/1 Inter vs Napoli Bet Builder

The card odds are pretty short in this game. Top level Italian clashes like this tend to have a very high card count and I’d expect the same here.

Referee Simone Sozza has taken charge of 6 SA games this season, he’s dished out 35 yellows, an average of 5.83 per game.

Napoli draw over 3 cards per game on average, however nobody in their team has picked up more than 2 bookings.

That got me looking at Inter. The card machine Marcelo Brozovic won’t feature, so what does that mean?

It means increases defensive responsibility for the other midfielders and its Calhanoglu who’s caught my eye.

The Turkish midfielder was booked 11 times last season, including in this exact fixture.

He’s had 2 cards this season, both in very high pressure games; against Barcelona and Juventus.

Of any regular started, he averages the most fouls in the Inter side (1.76 P/90).

With Brozovic not in the side, there’s even more need for Calhanoglu to get in amongst the Napoli midfielders and break up play.

Lobotka (2.30 fouls drawn/90), Anguissa (1.64 fouls drawn/90) & Zielinski (0.99 fouls drawn/90) should start in midfield for Napoli.

Both wingers for Napoli also like to step in to central areas. Politano draws 1.64 fouls/90 and Kvaratskheila draws 1.65.

We’ll likely also see Ndombele in the latter stages, he draws an average of 2.69 fouls/90. Against tired legs, this may be the final twist we need for Calhanoglu to get his card.

Calhanoglu has a reputation for getting embroiled in controversy too. There’s a nasty streak in him, in such a big game he’ll be amongst the dark arts.

The young Georgian has set Serie A and Europe on fire this season with a string of incredible performances.

His pace, direct running and ability to go on either foot makes him an absolute nightmare to deal with – as many of you may have seen when Napoli played Liverpool and Rangers in this seasons Champions League.

He averages a massive 3.52 shots/90 in the league this season and 1.35/90 on target.

Napoli currently top the table, 11 points clear of Inter. I expect them to really take this game to them and cement their position as front runners.

They’re a devastating attacking side, averaging an xG of 2.35.

With Dumfries often focusing more on attacking than defending, there’s going to be space for Kvara to exploit, especially on the counter.

There’s an average of 9.20 corners per match in Inter games.

The Nerrazuri take an average of 5.43 per game and have contributed at least 4 corners in 87% of their matches. 71% of their home games have seen them take 5 or more.

With Dumfries and Dimarco in wide areas, they’ll look to stretch the play and get deliveries in to the area for Dzeko/Lukaku. A good recipe for corners.

Napoli games average 10.07 corners, 88% of them have seen the over 7.5 line land.

They take an average of 5.87 themselves and have contributed 4 or more in 80% of their matches.

With pace in the wide areas and a clear area to expose in behind the two attacking wing backs, we should see plenty of movement down the flanks that should give us a higher chance of corners.

Napoli also have Osimhen in the centre, which gives them a target to hit if they want to mix things up.

If we get the Calhanoglu card, then we only need one more to land this selection.

As I covered already, the referee averages 5.83 cards per game & Napoli are an absolute magnet for drawing cards; their opponents accumulate an average of 3.13 cards per game.

Inter players are booked an average of 1.8 times per game.

In bigger games though, they tend to rack up the cards:

Vs Juventus – 3 cards
Vs Atalanta – 3 cards
Vs Bayern – 2 cards
Vs Barca – 3 cards (A), 5 cards (H)
Vs Fiorentina – 3 cards

The only domestic game against a ‘big’ side where they haven’t had 2 cards this season was vs Lazio, where they had the 1 booking.