Elche vs Girona
It may only be 13 games in, but it feels like crunch time for Elche.
Following their defeat to Valladolid, manager Jorge Almiron was sacked, despite only arriving in mid October.
Elche are. Bottom of the table. Winless and desperate for some bounce back here.
Their only consistency has come in being one of the leagues more entertaining sides to watch.
Their matches average 2.92 goals and 85% of them have had over 1.5.
Their issues has come defensively. They’re conceding an average of 2.23 goals per game, suffering an xGA of 2.3.
They’ve shown signs of life recently and have performed above their average xG in 3 of their last 4. They were particularly unfortunate to take nothing from Getafe and they were brilliant in the 2-2 draw with Valencia.
Being at home gives them more hope, their xG average at home is 1.13, compared to just 0.64 away.
With a new dawn, a home crowd pushing them on. They should cause Girona issues.
Girona sit 14th and are having a decent season by all accounts.
Their games have averaged 3 goals, the 3rd highest in La Liga. With 85% of them having 2 or more.
They average an xG of 1.47 and an xGA of 1.40. So we should see chances at both ends.
They’re a plucky side who can mix it with the best. Shown by their recent 1-1 draw with Real Madrid, where they racked up 1.79 expected goals.
They come in to this having beaten Bilbao, so confidence will be high.
Bochum vs Monchengladbach
Mgladbach make the short trip across West Germany to face a Bocham side sitting second from bottom.
Games involving Mgladbach have averaged 3.31 goals this season. And they’re on a bit of a run when it comes to exceeding the 2.5 goal mark. Their last 7 games – stretching back to Mid-September – have all met this target.
Mgladbach has averaged a modest xG of just 1.33 this season. But their xGA is 1.84 which is the fourth highest in the league.
Bochum on other hand have the worst defense in the league by some margin. They’ve conceded an incredible 35 goals in just 13 league games.
So it’s easy to see why their games average 3.54 goals – the fourth highest in the league. And why over 2.5 goals have been scored in 77% of their games – the joint highest in the Bundesliga. Their last 6 games have also exceeded the 2.5 goal mark.
Like Mgladbach, Bochum also has a low xG stats of just 1.31. But again, it’s their xGA of 2 that is of interest. This is the second highest in the league.
It’s clear to see that both Mgladbach and Bochum have some major issues in defense and both teams will see this as an opportunity to try and turn their poor season around.
Cremonese vs AC Milan
A 90th minute Olivier Giroud winner soared the Rossoneri’s blushes against Spezia.
It came at a cost though with the Frenchman forgetting he’d been booked, removing his shirt in celebration and subsequently being sent off.
Milan are 2nd in the league, 6 points behind Napoli so it’s imperative they keep winning.
Their matches this season have averaged 3.15 goals and 69% of them have seen 3 or more scored.
They’ve only kept 1 clean sheet on the road this season and with the absences of Mike Maignan, Davide Calabria, Theo Hernandez, Sergino Dest & Alessandro Florenzi, they’re depleted in defence.
They don’t lack in attack though. Even with Giroud’s suspension. Leao, Messias, Diaz and Origi started the last match. Plenty of firepower there and that should mean De Ketelaere returns after a rest. As will Sandro Tonali from the off.
Milan average an impressive xG of 1.83 and their quality in attack is converting that in to 2.08 goals per game.
As for Cremonese, they’re the new boys in the league and to say it hasn’t been easy for them would be an understatement.
They’re yet to win a match. However they don’t sit bottom thanks to the 6 draws they’ve managed.
3 of their last 5 have seen 4 or more goals and over the season so far, their matches average 2.69 goals and a 54% strike rate for over 2.5.
Cremonese can feel hard done by. They’ve only scored 0.85 goals per game but they’ve created chances – a 1.45 xG is really solid.
What’s cost them is their defence. Again, they’ve actually been a bit lucky. They’ve shipped an average of 1.85 goals per game, however their xGA stands at an alarming 2.21.
I think the hosts can definitely get on the scoresheet here, especially with Milan’s absentees but over 2.5 covers the chance that Milan storm this 3/4-0.
Harrogate vs Carlisle
This is a clash between 21st vs 7th as the promotion chasing Cumbrians make the long trip south. Impressively with a sell out of over 500 following away fans.
Harrogate games this season have averaged 2.38 goals. 69% of them have had over 1.5 and their last 6 league matches in a row have all seen this selection land.
They average an xG of just above 1. But suffer a hefty xGA of 1.65, which is a dangerous game against a string visiting side.
Carlisle just won back to back fixtures against Tranmere in League and cup and a win tonight would move them in to 5th.
Carlisle games are averaging 2.44 goals. With 75% of them having over 1.5 and their last 5 in a row all having this selection land.
They average an xG of 1.38. The main beneficiary of that has been one of the leagues top scorers – Kristian Dennis has 9 so far this season.