It’s been a long time coming but the Milan clubs are back in the big time and will do battle on the biggest of stages – a Champions League semi-final. The San Siro will host both legs of this tie as Milan and Inter bid to become the first Italian side to reach the final of Europe’s most prestigious competition since 2017 and the first to win it since 2010.
Nobody is going to want to miss this one as two famous rivals and European powerhouses come to blows. This game deserves one of our famous stat packs and we’ve got you covered so you can create your own Milan vs Inter Bet Builder. If you’re unsure how to use the data we provide and want to increase your chances of picking a winning bet builder, be sure to check the Bad Man Betting Stats Pack Guide.
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Milan vs inter Predicted Lineups
Saelemaekers hoping to make mark for Milan
Injury presents opportunity and that’s exactly how Belgian Alexis Saelemaekers will see his route into the starting XI for this mammoth occasion. Replacing the unfortunate Rafael Leao at the weekend due to a thigh problem. On the other flank, Brahim Diaz could return in place of the more experienced Junior Messias.
World Cup Winner Martinez to return for Inter
Simone Inzaghi has faced difficulty balancing his team amid a heavy schedule of fixtures and we should see more rotation here with top scorer Lautaro Martinez and Henrikh Mkhitaryan amongst those expected to return, having seen less than half hour of action from the bench at the weekend. Milan Skriniar remains doubtful so the expectation is that Alessandro Bastoni will continue in defence.
Milan vs Inter Team Stats
Milan picking up too many cards
Seven-time European Champions Milan are about where you would expect them to be in Serie A, sitting between third and sixth in the table for goals, xG and shots for and against. Notably, their goals and xG return is pretty similar in Europe, albeit they are conceding more shots than they take.
The number of cards in Milan games is quite something, both they and their opposition are receiving over two per game and this continues in Europe, picking up 2.2 cards in their ten official matches and drawing 2.8.
European drop off for Inter
On home turf, Inter are as good as they come, attaining the best xG, having the most shots, the second most on target and their xG against is the third best in the division. While they are scoring comfortably more than they concede in Europe, their underlying numbers are much tighter with an expected goal difference of 0.06 across their ten matches, suggesting they aren’t quite as dominant despite their excellent form to reach this stage.
Inter do force a lot of corners, averaging 5.85 overall and 5.3 in the Champions League. There are also a high number of cards in their matches, 4.23 on average.
MILAN VS INTER SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET STATS
Milan’s Saelemaekers keeping keepers on their toes
Olivier Giroud has been around the block but he remains the big dog at Milan, leading the line in his own rugged yet cultured manner. He has averaged 1.07 shots on target overall this season but has the best shot on target to shots taken percentage of any Champions League player to take ten shots or more this season. Alexis Saelemaekers should start here and he has taken two or more shots in his last three starts.
Dimarco a wildcard for Inter
Lautaro Martinez understandably leads the way for Inter when it comes to having a pop at goal, doing so over four times a game and testing the keeper nearly twice per 90. Despite starting only four, he has managed a shot on target in seven of his last nine appearances. Keep an eye on Federico Dimarco, the Inter left-wing-back has managed a shot on target in three of his last four starts and has had two or more shots at goal in four of his last six.
MILAN VS INTER GOALS AND ASSISTS STATS
Gorgeous Giroud still looking good for Milan
Giroud now has 13 goals for the season having scored the tie-clinching goal in Milan’s Champions League quarter-final second leg away at Napoli. The 36-year-old Frenchman has eight goals and five assists to his name in Serie A but has scored another five in the Champions League from an xG of 5.4. With Rafael Leao out of action, eyes will be on Brahim Diaz to step up in support – he has five goals and five assists to his name this season.
Hotshot Martinez having a fine campaign for Inter
Argentinian Martinez didn’t have the greatest World Cup but has been in fine form for Inter where, contributing 32 goal involvements across all competitions, including five in the Champions League – two of which came in the 3-3 draw with Benfica that secured their qualification to the semi-finals. Nicolo Barella is a midfielder with a penchant for slipping away from his marker and that has shown with eight goals and as many assists this term.
MILAN VS INTER PLAYER PASSING STATS
Kjaer to back Milan’s Captain?
It’s tricky knowing exactly how the possession will go in this game. Inter and Milan have faced off three times this season with the possession share being 53-47 to Inter, 65-35 to Milan then 64-36 to Inter. However, if you’re confident that the Rossoneri will see more of the ball in a stadium that will contain more of their own supporters, you can back Simon Kjaer at 1.53 to make over 50 passes and right-back Davide Calabria at 1.83 to do the same.
Darmian a NICE price for 50 or more
As above, the possession numbers have varied when the Nerazzurri have clashed with their fierce rivals but they are clearly capable of keeping possession in domestic football. Again, there are some interesting odds at hand with Francesco Acerbi available at 1.62 to make 50 or more passes – he is averaging 61.8 passes per 90 in the Champions League, and if you fancy something even bigger – Matteo Darmian is available at 1.8 despite averaging 55 passes per 90 this season.
MILAN CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Milan love a card against Inter
As stated above, Milan have played Inter on three occasions this season. They have received 12 bookings in those matches, collecting five on two occasions. Sandro Tonali, Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leao and Theo Hernandez have all picked up two bookings each so there is plenty of scope to back cards on Wednesday. Olivier Giroud has picked up nine in total this season and will be in for a good tussle against fellow old-school footballer Acerbi.
Elsewhere, Kjaer and Tomori will have their work cut out against the lively Martinez, the diminutive forward is being fouled more than twice per game and notably got fouled in both Champions League quarter-final matches and the Coppa Italia semi-final against Juventus. Powerhouse wing-back Denzel Dumfries is another to keep an eye on – he has been fouled in his last six appearances and didn’t even start two of them.
MILAN VS INTER KEY MATCHUPS
Theo Hernandez vs Denzel Dumfries
Sandro Tonali vs Nicolo Barella
Simon Kjaer vs Lautaro Martinez
INTER CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Dumfries in for an all-action clash with Hernandez
While their rivals have been naughtier, Inter haven’t been afraid to catch the referee’s ire either, receiving seven yellow cards in their three matches with Milan this season and at least two in each game. Dumfries was one of the men to be booked and though the Dutchman hasn’t conceded a foul in his last three, which were all comfortable affairs, he did commit fouls in the previous eight, including both Champions League quarter-finals and Coppa Italia semi-finals. Keep an eye on Francesco Acerbi too, who will be up against the wily Giroud – he has conceded a foul in his last three outings.
Up against Dumfries will be the Frenchman Hernandez, who is given license to attack down the left and he has been fouled twice or more in 12 of his 17 matches since mid-January and at least twice in all three games against Inter. Alexis Saelemaekers has also been fouled in six of the last seven matches he played at least 20 minutes of, so Dimarco will need to be on his game down the other flank.
MILAN VS INTER MATCHUPS TO WATCH
Denzel Dumfries vs Theo Hernandez
Matteo Darmian vs Brahim Diaz
Federico Dimarco vs Alexis Saelemaekers
AC milan vs inter milan bet builder tips and pick of the pack
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AC Milan vs Inter Milan
10th May
kick off 20:00 Hakan Calhanoglu 2+ shots
An Inter player who will be brimming with confidence after a fantastic performance last week is Hakan Calhanoglu.
If you haven’t seen his goal against Verona already, you’ll need to. A pinpoint strike from over 30 yards out. That’s a trademark goal from the Turk, who is never afraid to lock on from distance.
In fact, he’s averaging 2.11 shots per 90 in Serie A this season, with just 27% of those shots hitting their mark.
That’s now 8 shots in his last 4 Serie A outings, notching 2 or more in 3 of them.
He’s managed at least two shots in 8 of his last 9 Serie A starts.
His numbers against stronger opposition increases too, with their defenses tougher to unlock with a killer pass.
In the league, he attempted five across the two against Roma, four across the two matches against Lazio, and seven across the two against Juventus.
Most importantly though, across the two vs Milan he registered 6 in total, with 4 in the “away” game.
Fikayo Tomori 1+ foulsFikayo Tomori looks extremely overpriced for a player that has committed a foul in 15 of his last 20 games.
That includes a foul in both legs against Napoli in the semi-final.
His stats from the league take into account a more reserved start to the campaign, but 0.97 fouls p/90 is still encouraging.
His Champions League stats are even more promising, averaging 1.25 fouls p/90.
Last time he played against Milan in the Supercoppa Italiana, he committed 3 fouls.
That’s largely down to who he’s matched up against; Lautaro Martinez.
The Argentinian striker is a foul drawing king, and plays on the right of a front 2, exactly in Tomori’s territory. He draws 2.16 fouls p/90 in the league and attempts 2.46 take-ons.
He’s drawn 6 fouls in his last 2 games against Milan and is a real handful.
Inter Milan over 4.5 cornersInter and Milan have locked horns 3 times already this season. Inter managed 5 or more corners in each of them (8, 6, 5).
In fact, they’ve racked up 5 or more corners in 7 of their last 8 meetings with Milan, taking us all the way back to February 2021.
In the league this season, Inter have average 5.85 corners, while Milan have conceded an average of 4.41.
Funnily, Inter’s average in fact increases when they’re the away side to 6.41.
Then in Europe, Inter have averaged 5.30 corners while Milan have conceded an average of 5.50.
Inter Milan 4+ shots on targetInter Milan have been a huge attacking threat this season, and with Lautaro Martinez, Edin Dzeko, and Romelu Lukaku all on form you can understand why.
They’ve averaged 6.47 shots on target per game in the league this season, from 16.88 attempts.
That’s alongside hitting the 4+ mark we need here in 91% of their game, and 94% as the away side.
That’s now 8 of their last 9 in all competitions that they’ve passed that mark.
They’ve also hit 6, 5, and 4, in their 3 games against Milan this season. In fact that’s 4 in a row they’ve managed 4 or more against their fierce rivals.
Their averages haven’t dropped much at all in the Champions League where they’ve averaged 6.40 on target. They’ve hit 4 or more in 9 out of their 10 games in Europe this campaign, and every one of the games as the away team.
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