Accrington Stanley welcome Leeds United to the Wham Stadium for this FA Cup 4th Round match. Both sides needed replays in the previous round, with Accrington playing as recently as Tuesday evening when they beat Boreham Wood 1-0. Leeds are overwhelming favourites to progress against an Accrington side who are in the third tier of English football and down as low as 20th in League One.
Below, you can dive straight into my stats pack for this showdown destined for an underdog story. It’s laden with all measure of stats and info for you to pick a bet builder so you can cause an upset with the bookies. To ensure you get the most value out of the data, take a glance at my Stats Pack Guide here.
starting Lineups
Team stats
Accrington Stanley average less than a goal per game (0.96) and have been underachieving compared to their xG . They concede an average of 1.44 goals per game which correlates with their xGA. Coleman’s men average 13.04 shots per match with 12.32 against. They have a poor 3.60 SOT target in each fixture which is disappointingly low.
Corners are high in Accrington Stanley matches. They average 5.68 themselves and concede 5.52. They might not have much of an opportunity to pick up as many in a game like this though. Cards have also been high in Stanley fixtures. They have been quite dirty picking up 2.44 cards per game with their opponents also averaging high 2.20 cards.
Leeds have scored an average of 1.37 goals per game but have a leaky defence, shipping in 1.74 in each fixture. Leeds matches can often be quite frantic, fast paced with lots of action at both ends of the field. They fire in 12.42 shots in each fixture but average a large 13.21 shots against. Their opponents average 4.63 SOT in each game which is one of the main reasons why they concede so many goals. Bear in mind, a lot of this data is from Premier League matches though.
Corners are something to watch out for in Leeds games. They obtain an average of 5.42 themselves, but also concede 4.74. It is worth noting that the Mighty Whites didn’t concede a single corner vs Villa in a recent Premier League game and just three vs Brentford last weekend. Leeds are one of the most ill-disciplined teams around, amassing 2.43 cards per game. They can get involved in several dirty contests and their opponents also average a high number of cards in each fixture (1.89).
Player shots and shots on target
Four Accrington players average over two shots per 90 mins, although midfielder Joe Prichard is injured and unlikely to feature. Left winger McConville and attacking midfielder Hamilton are two players to look at here, along with striker Tom Leigh. None of these players are particularly accurate though and cannot be relied upon to test the goalkeeper. Leigh only averages 0.56 SOT from 2.28 total shots which is around the 25% mark.
Joe Gelhardt averages the most shots per 90 mins of any Leeds player on this list (4.17). There is talk of him leaving the club on loan though and at best he will start from the bench here. Top scorer Rodrigo fires in 3.61 shots per 90, but only 1.32 of those have been on target. Rodrigo has a decent scoring record but it’s mostly by a scattergun style approach.
Summer signing Willy Gnonto has been catching the eye recently, most notably with a spectacular goal vs Cardiff and averages 1.84 shots. Patrick Bamford scored three goals off the bench in recent weeks and could be in line to start here. He averages 3.74 shots per 90 at a strong 50% accuracy rate.
Player goals and assists
The top scorer for Accrington is Tom Leigh with 6 goals. Sean McConville has netted four times and Rodgers three. Assists have been spread around the team but there are no stand outs. Both wingers McConville and Rodgers have two assists each.
Rodrigo is the leading scorer for the White Rose outfit. He is normally on penalty taking duty as well which adds to his scoring credentials. The Spaniard has 10 goals this season and has been in good form recently. Both Jack Harrison and Brendan Aaronson top the assist charts for Leeds with 4 and 2 respectively. Gnonto is a rising star and definitely a player to watch out for
Player passing
Leeds are a very mixed possession team and their numbers can vary from game to game. They only had 46% vs Villa, surprisingly only 52% vs Championship side Cardiff in the FA Cup replay, but then had nearly 60% of the ball vs Brentford last weekend. No player of significant minutes averages more than 60 passes per 90 mins but the two probably worth considering in this market are midfielder Tyler Adams (57.9) in addition to Marc Roca (49.6)
Accrington cards
Midfielders Coyle and Hamilton are serial card offenders, picking up 8 and 6 respectively. Both average around the 1.50 foul mark per 90 mins and could have problems against the Leeds midfield. Right winger Rodgers and striker Whalley have also picked up several cards this season. Centre back Tharme averages 1.70 fouls per 90 mins and obtained 7 cards on this list.
Jesse Marsch’s men have a lot of pacey and technical players who press a lot. There are also some significant dribblers in the team such as Willy Gnonto and Jack Harrison. Whoever plays out wide for Leeds will give Accrington a lot of issues. In midfield Brendan Aaronson regularly gets stuck in but can also be a potential foul magnet with his style of play. He has an average of 3.74 dribbles per 90 mins and is fouled on 2.30 occasions. Right back Luke Ayling is fouled 2.41 times and will get forward in this system on several occasions.
Matchups to watch
Liam Coyle vs Brendan Aaronson
Sean McConville vs Luke Ayling
Ethan Hamilton vs Marc Roca
Leeds cards
Leeds are a strong pressing and high energy team which can lead to a lot of fouls. Midfielder Tyler Adams tops them in this category with 1.82 fouls per 90 mins. He also has five cards and will harass the opponent on a regular basis, although he is a doubt for this match. Right back Rasmus Kristensen is another who won’t shy away from a tackle, in addition to Marc Roca. This whole team is capable of fouling regularly. Left back Pascal Struijk averages 1.30 fouls per 90 mins, the exact same as Robin Koch.
Shaun Whalley is the most fouled Accrington player at 2.63 times per 90 mins. Midfielder Ethan Hamilton is also fouled twice per match with fellow midfielder Coyle fouled on average 1.67 times per 90 mins. Both wingers Rodgers and McConville are candidates to be fouled as well.
Matchups to watch
Robin Koch vs Shaun Whalley
Pascal Struijk vs Harvey Rodgers
Ayling or Kristensen vs Sean McConville
My Bet Builder Picks of the pack
Taking a look through the stats there’s surely some value in the betting markets in this game. Here’s just a few selections that tickled my fancy and all four would come in as a 3/1 bet builder. Pick and choose whichever selections you’d like though.
Accrington vs Leeds
28th January
kick off 12:30 Over 2.5 Goals
Accrington games average 2.60 goals, with an xG of 2.89.
Leeds games average 3.11 goals with an xG of 3.18.
Over 2.5 CardsAccrington games average 4.64 cards.
Leeds games average 4.32 cards.
Leeds 5+ shots on targetLeeds average 3.84 shots on target in the Premier League.
Accrington concede 4.32 shots on target in League One.
Over 8.5 cornersAccrington games average 11.20 corners.
Leeds games average 10.16 corners.
