One of the stories of the Qatar World Cup is that Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo could face off in the final if both Argentina and Portugal were to make it that far of course. The reigning Copa America Champions go into this one as one of the favourites behind just South American rivals Brazil and reigning champions France.
I’ve done all the digging behind La Albiceleste in the CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifiers in which they finished second behind the Seleção. In my excavation I’ve found the numbers for goals, shots, corners, and cards for both team- and player-specific bet builder markets. So get reading my Stats Pack Guide, analysing my stats pack, and picking some winning bet builders.
TEAM STATS
Argentina managed a hefty 39 points from 17 games and qualification was never in doubt. Only Brazil managed better with 45 points in the end and explains why they are the favourites to go all the way.
Both sides cantered away undefeated, although Argentina weren’t as convincing with 6 draws from the 17.
They did dominate every department in their qualifiers though, despite scoring a modest 1.59 goals per 90. They underperformed from their xG of 1.80 but poor finishing from their opposition (0.47 goals p/90) meant they coasted through to the World Cup group stages.
PREDICTED LINEUP
Depending on how Scaloni set up his side with the personnel available, Argentina usually approach matches in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1.
Up top, there’s no doubting that PSG’s Lionel Messi and Inter’s Lautaro Martinez will start and be the main threats on the opposition goal, although City’s Julian Alvarez, Juve’s Angel Di Maria, and Fiorentina’s Nicolas Gonzalez provide healthy competition and backup.
In defence, competition for places is tough with Cristian Romero, Lisandro Martínez, Germán Pezzella, and Nicolás Otamendi in central defence alone. Then at full-back you’ve got Sevilla’s Marcos Acuna and Atletico Madrid’s Nahuel Molina provide a selection dilemma behind Lyon’s Nicolas Tagliafico and Sevilla’s Gonzalo Montiel.
PLAYER SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET
A player that will be pushing for a start is Inter Milan’s Joaquin Correa, and given Angel Di Maria’s Juventus are having a torrid time he’s in with a decent shot. He outshoots the former PSG and United man with 2.28 shots on target per 90 from 3.87 shots.
Only Lionel Messi makes more attempts than Correa per 90 minutes, and he took aim 4.31 times per 90 in the World Cup Qualifiers.
Other than the main men up top, it could be worth a longshot (pardon the pun) at Atletico Madrid midfielder Rodrigo de Paul who takes a pop at least once per game.
PLAYER GOALS AND ASSISTS
Lautaro Martinez and Lionel Messi managed 7 goals a piece in the CONMEBOL qualifiers. Lautaro was able to add an extra 3 assists to his name on top of that.
Domestically they’re having stand out seasons too, Messi has made 25 goal contributions in just 17 games in all competitions while Martinez has a rather more modest 11 in 18.
They’ll be the Argentine players to watch and are both amongst the contenders for the Golden Boot. Messi comes in at 12/1 and Martinez comes in at a generous 25/1 on Betfair.
Whether Di Maria (4), Gonzalez (4) or Correa (2) starts, they both made a claim for the spot with their goal contributions in the qualifiers too.
ARGENTINA CARDS (FOR)
With the likes of Hirving Lozano (Mexico) and Robert Lewandowski (Poland) in their group, the Argentinian defence have some tasks on their hands.
At 34 years old, Otamendi is likely at his last World Cup and he won’t want to bow out without a fight. He notched 5 cards in 15 qualifying appearances.
Cristian Romero and Nicolas Tagliafico also kept up at least a 1 in 3 strike rate when it came to cards, with the latter managing 2.50 fouls per game.
Tagliafico vs Lozano, Romero vs Lewandowski, and then Otamendi to sweep up whoever is missed. Cards are a good shout here.
Paredes (1.98 fouls per 90) and de Paul (1.13 fouls per 90) will also have some tussle with the likes of Erick Gutierrez (Mexico) and Piotr Zielinski (Poland).
ARGENTINA CARDS (AGAINST)
Atletico Madrid’s Rodrigo de Paul averaged 3.48 fouls drawn per 90 minutes of CONMEBOL qualifying action. For his club he’s also been fouled 2.42 times per 90.
If you’re looking for cards against Argentina, then whoever acts as his counterpart is a good punt. Piotr Zielinski (Poland), Grzegorz Krychowiak (Poland), Erick Gutierrez (Mexico), and Riyadh Sharahili (Saudi Arabia) could need watched over.
The other obvious options are the opposition defence, who will need to deal with not just Messi (2.61) but Lautaro Martinez (2.56) and options including Gonzalez (3.13), Ocampos (2.05) and Di Maria.
Kamil Glik (Poland), Saud Abdulhamid (Saudi Arabia) and Hector Moreno (Mexico) are just a few defenders to watch in the group stages.
