Argentina take on Croatia for a place in the World Cup final tonight, they’ll meet at the Lusail Stadium and it’ll be ITV who televises it at 7pm. Good news for bettors by the way, Italian Daniele Orsato is the man in charge, he loves cards just as much as Antonio Lahoz.
Orsato is averaging 5.50 cards per game at the World Cup, and he also averaging 5.50+ cards per game when he’s back home doing his thing in Serie A.
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starting Lineups
I’ll tell you who won’t be on Argentina’s Christmas list. It’s referee Antonio Mateu Lahoz who dished out a huge number of cards during their quarter-final match against the Netherlands. Resulting in both full backs Gonzalo Montiel and Marcos Acuna being suspended.
Montiel was unlikely to play anyway as Molina is playing well. Acuna will have to put his faith in teammate Nicolas Tagliafico to replace him on the left side of the defence.
Croatia manager Zlatko Dalic is blessed with a fully fit squad to choose from after Borna Sosa and Mislav Orsic both recovered from recent illnesses in time to come back into the fold. Josip Stanisic is the only slight injury concern.
Team Stats
Argentina have done quite well on the shots front, they’re a member of the top four nations at the World Cup when it comes to the highest number of shots produced per game. Funnily enough, Argentina and France are the top two now that Germany and Brazil are long gone.
An interesting statistic is that the Argentinians are conceding just 4.40 shots per game. This is the lowest number of shots conceded by any nation who played a part at the Qatar World Cup. I wouldn’t be expecting a lot of chances for Croatia.
The fact that Croatia and Morocco remain in the competition is so impressive and it comes down to their resolute defences and efforts to not concede.
Look at the xG stats here. Croatia’s xG against number (Expected goals to have conceded) is 1.43 per game, whereas they’re factually conceding 0.50 goals per 90 minutes. They’re also outperforming their xG for as they’re bagging 1.40 goals P/90.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
Mr Reliable Lionel Messi is leading the way when it comes to shots output and down to accuracy also. He’s proving influential as always, and the World Cup he craves might just be on the way if he can have two more big performances.
Messi is averaging a large 4.12 shots P/90 with 1.69 being on target. Man City’s Julian Alvarez is having a really good tournament and isn’t receiving the deserved plaudits. 1.56 on target P/90 for him.
Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez hasn’t featured a great deal since that disaster against Saudi Arabia which feels a lifetime ago. He could be a good option to consider if Argentina are struggling to break Croatia down and he comes on late in the game.
Livaja and Kramaric lead the way for Croatian shots output but there may be a scenario here for neither of those play. Especially given the fact that Bruno Petkovic scored that dramatic extra time equaliser which may have been enough to reward him with a start.
The shots pick for Croatia would be Ivan Perisic for me. The Spurs man has been their main source of creativity and chance creation. He’s averaging 2.39 shots P/90 and I’d expect him to have efforts from range in a game where Croatia will likely struggle for opportunities.
Player Goals and Assists
Argentina players have scored nine goals during their time in Qatar, and six of them have had a contribution from none other than Lionel Messi. He’s scored four goals and assisted a couple, making him the standout in goals markets.
Julian Alvarez is next with a couple of goals to his name, and as I mentioned, he’s had himself a decent tournament so far.
Croatia have shared the goals round, but Kramaric and Perisic are the players who stand out. The former has scored a couple of goals in five appearances, and Perisic has scored once but provided a further two.
With Argentina conceding just 4.40 shots per game, the goals market for Croatia may not have the best value. I’m sure they’ll be happy to just stay in the game for as long as possible and potentially take it all the way like they did against Brazil.
ARGENTINA Cards
Lionel Messi may be a surprise inclusion in the cards list, but he’s a bit naughty on the sly. He was booked for dissent against the Netherlands, and he avoided a yellow card that was a clear as day for an obvious handball.
Centre halves Nicolas Otamendi and Cristian Romero are eye catching at the back. 1.70 and 1.89 fouls P/90 respectively.
Croatia’s Bruno Petkovic is fouled 2.63 times P/90 minutes so that could make Otamendi and Romero even more eye catching. You can already envision the physical battle between Petkovic, a 6ft 3 physical presence, against the shorter Argentinian defence.
It’s interesting to see that Croatia’s midfield three of Modric, Brozovic and Kovacic are all fouled a couple of times P/90. They don’t feature in the stats, but consider Argentina’s Mac Allister, Fernandez and De Paul to be involved in a huge midfield battle.
Matchups to watch:
Otamendi vs Petkovic
Fernandez vs Modric
Molina vs Perisic
CROATIA Cards
Croatia haven’t been huge on the cards front. They’re only average 1.20 cards P/90 and not one Croatian player has picked up more than a single card throughout this tournament.
The standout information for me is where the fouls lay, and again, it comes from the heart of the midfield. Brozovic fouling 1.96 times P/90 and it’s 2.22 for Modric. What’s interesting is that Kovacic seems to be much less dirty with just 0.59 fouls P/90.
Messi is fouled 3.58 times P/90 and it’ll be interesting to see how both Lovren and Gvardiol deal with him. Both centre halves have had an impressive tournament so far, however this is arguably their toughest test when it comes to the individual best player they’ve faced.
There’ll be cards for both teams in midfield and there’s so many battles to pick from. Mac Allister, De Paul and Fernandez are likely to draw fouls from that Croatian middle three, and you know what the South American play acting can be like.
Matchups to watch:
Modric vs De Paul
Brozovic vs Mac Allister
Gvardiol vs Messi
Player passes
