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Arsenal vs Aston Villa Stats Pack, Bet Builder Tips and Predictions

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa

Calendar 14th April
Football icon kick off 16:30
Football icon Over 2.5 Goals
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Arsenal have seen 3+ goals in 10 of their last 12, scoring 3+ goals themselves in 7 of these 12

Aston Villa have seen at least 3 goals in 9 of their last 11, only failing to score once in this run

Football icon Over 2.5 Aston Villa corners
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Villa have hit this mark for corners in 30 of their 32 games this season

Arsenal have held only 3 top-half sides to fewer than 3 corners in a game this season, those being Brighton, West Ham and Newcastle

Football icon Ollie Watkins to have 1+ shot on target
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Watkins has had a shot on target in 26 of his 30 league starts in which he played over 45 minutes

He has had a shot on target in 10 of his last 11 PL games with over 45 mins played and hit a shot on target in the reverse fixture earlier this season

Football icon John McGinn to win 2+ fouls
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McGinn has won 2+ fouls in 9 of his last 11 Premier League and Conference League games, and averages 2.01 fouls won per 90 in the league

He will be up against Odegaard and Jorginho, who commit 0.95 and 0.91 fouls per 90 respectively

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Arsenal were returned to the top of the Premier League table last weekend after beating Brighton before Liverpool failed to secure the three points away to Man United.

Aston Villa meanwhile are locked in a battle for fourth which may or may not be the cut-off point for Champions League football next season. With the extra spot still up in the air, neither team want to risk missing out by finishing fifth and the race for top-four looks set to go down to the wire, just like the title race.

Aston Villa are one of only four sides to beat the Gunners in the league this season, securing a 1-0 victory at Villa Park, but a win here would be a huge statement of intent from Unai Emery’s side as they battle the Gunners’ North London neighbours, Spurs.

Arsenal may be the favourites but Villa are never an easy task, and this game looks set to be a belter. If you’re looking to get involved with an Arsenal vs Aston Villa bet builder, we have a carefully crafted one at the bottom of this article, alongside a range of tips in a variety of markets to help you build yourself a Sunday afternoon winner too.

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups

Just one change expected from Mikel Arteta here

Arsenal will be disappointed not to have won their Champions League quarter-final first leg against Bayern Munich, having plenty of chances to punish the German champions but failing to do so. Despite that, and with the second leg in just three days, Arteta is likely to keep his side near-unchanged, with only Jakub Kiwior expected to drop out of the starting XI, and Oleksandr Zinchenko taking his spot at left-back instead.

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Suspended Douglas Luiz is a big miss for the Villans

No Douglas Luiz is a massive blow for Villa, with the Brazilian acting as the heartbeat of this side in central midfield. As a consequence Unai Emery is expected to change things up by going for a 4-4-1-1 formation, with Moussa Diaby replacing Luiz in the side. This is expected to be the only change however, with Ollie Watkins playing in front of Diaby, and Rogers and Bailey playing as wide midfielders alongside Tielemans and McGinn instead of wingers as they did on Thursday night against Lille.

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa Team Stats

Expect the goals to flow at the Emirates

Arsenal’s impressive run in the Premier League, winning 10 of their last 11 games, (drawing against Man City at the Etihad in the other) has seen them rack up a serious goal tally. Despite keeping seven clean sheets in their last 12 league games, they have seen over 2.5 goals in 10 of these 12. Arsenal have scored three goals themselves in seven games during this run and are averaging 2.42 goals per game this season. Aston Villa meanwhile have seen three or more goals in nine of their last 11 games in the Premier League, scoring in 10 of these 11 games and keeping just two clean sheets. They average 1.97 goals per game and concede 1.44 per game. Over 2.5 goals looks the obvious play here, and it can be backed at 1.40.

Team Stats 14

Villa could smash through the corner lines

At 1.40 to have just three corners here, Aston Villa are being quite heavily undervalued by the bookies. The Villans have failed to clear this line just twice in 32 Premier League games this season, both of which were comfortable home wins earlier in the season. Villa had three corners against Arsenal earlier in the season, a game in which they grabbed a lead in the 7th minute and then attempted to hold it for the remaining 83. Villa average 6.34 corners per game and have every chance of comfortably clearing the over 2.5 corner line. They can also be backed to have over 3.5 corners at 2.20, something they have achieved in 26 of their 32 league games this season.

Team Stats 15

Arsenal vs Aston Villa Shots and Shots on Target Stats

Kai Havertz looks a banker here

Havertz has now hit a shot on target in nine straight Premier League games, dating back to early February. He has scored five goals during this run, taking at least two shots in all but one of his last nine league starts, and hitting two shots on target on three occasions. Don’t be fooled by his averages, the German may only be sitting at 0.67 shots on target per 90, but he has seen these numbers shoot up since moving into the centre-forward role, and now looks a genuine goal threat every time he’s on the pitch. He can be backed to hit a shot on target at 1.30.

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Unbelievably good value on Watkins here

Despite being just one goal off the top spot in the Premier League golden boot race, Ollie Watkins is shockingly high to hit just a single shot on target here. Of his 31 Premier League games this season, the Englishman has failed to have a shot on target just five times. He has now had at least one shot on target in 10 of his last 11 league games in which he played over 45 minutes, hitting two or more shots on target in seven of these 11. Watkins had three shots, one on target when these sides met earlier in the season and he can be backed for another here at 1.83.

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Arsenal vs Aston Villa Goals and Assists Stats

Bukayo Saka the pick of the bunch for the Gunners

Saka has hit a goal or an assist in eight of his last nine Premier League games, racking up eight goals and two assists in this span. The young Englishman has perhaps been Arsenal’s best player this season and his price reflects his recent form; however he is still the best value amongst a clutch of Arsenal players all odds-on to score or assist here, with Saka sitting at 1.67. Some extra value can be squeezed out of this selection by backing Saka just to score anytime, where he is available at 2.50 instead.

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Watkins the best value here too

Ollie Watkins is the focal point of Aston Villa’s attack and with the rest of the side spreading goal contributions round the team extremely evenly, it makes sense to back Watkins over anyone else in claret. The Englishman has 18 league goals this season, just one behind Erling Haaland, and he has scored or assisted in seven of his last 11 league games with over 45 minutes played. This is all the more impressive as it comes with Villa experiencing their worst form of the entire season. Watkins has scored seven goals in his last seven league games and can be backed to either score or assist at 3.40.

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Arsenal Cards and Fouls Stats

Gabriel Martinelli offers nice foul value

Arsenal’s Brazilian left-winger has been going strong with fouls lately, committing at least one in each of his last six starts in all competitions, and in eight of his last nine games, including two from the bench in just 16 and 27 minutes respectively. Up against Ezri Konsa, who draws the second-most fouls of any Villa player from right-back, at 1.85 fouls per 90, Martinelli, who commits exactly 1.0 fouls per 90 looks likely to commit at least one here, and he can be backed to do so at 1.25.

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McGinn to win a couple of fouls here

John McGinn draws the most fouls of any Aston Villa player, at 2.01 per 90. He offers little to be fouled once, on which market he is currently priced at just 1.13, but his impressive record of drawing fouls makes him viable on the multiple fouls won market. McGinn has been fouled twice or more in nine of his last 11 league and European games for Aston Villa, and he will be up against Jorginho and Martin Odegaard here, who both commit just under a foul per 90 at 0.91 and 0.95 respectively. With no Luiz, the onus will be on Tielemans and McGinn to keep the ball and relieve pressure, and that makes two fouls won easily achievable, especially having done exactly that in the reverse fixture at Villa Park. He can be backed to win 2+ fouls at 1.67 here.

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AsTon Villa Cards and Fouls Stats

Diego Carlos the pick of the bunch for Villa

Kai Havertz wins the most second-most fouls of any Arsenal player at 1.64 per 90, so it only makes sense to look at the Villa centre-backs. Diego Carlos is the pick of the bunch, the Brazilian having fouled in four of his last six domestic appearances, twice committing four fouls in a game. He averages  1.06 fouls per 90, the joint-fifth-most amongst this Villa side and committed a foul when these two sides met at Villa Park earlier in the season. He can be backed to commit another foul here at a very tempting 1.53.

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Jorginho a solid odds boosting option

Jorginho ranks third amongst Arsenal players for fouls won per 90 with 1.41. The Italian international has now been fouled in 11 of his last 12 starts for the Gunners, being fouled twice or more in seven of these 12 games. He is up against the midfield pairing of Youri Tielemans and John McGinn, who commit 1.33 and 1.31 fouls per 90 respectively. With both Villa midfielders liking to be aggressive in the tackle, Jorginho’s press-resistance will be crucial for Arsenal, and he looks likely wo win at least one foul in this one. He can be backed to be fouled at 1.25.

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