Arsenal vs Burnley betting Tips and Stats

Many are likely seeing this game as a foregone conclusion. Yes, Arsenal should win, but the bigger question is by how many. There’s no doubt Arsenal are going to control the game and have chances aplenty, and it only makes sense for Viktor Gyokeres to be the man on the end of them.

Gyokeres has had his critics this season, and whilst some performances haven’t quite hit the mark, it’s hard to argue with the numbers. The Swedish forward has netted 14 times in the Premier League this season, with only three players able to better that return. Sure, the West Ham game was lacklustre, but Gyokeres scored a brace against Fulham in the game prior, and has scored four goals in his last six having only started three of those games.

It’s difficult to look at this Burnley side and suggest with any confidence at all that they can keep Arsenal out here. They’re yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, and they’ve conceded at least twice in 15 of their 18 away games. You’d fancy Arsenal to cause Burnley further problems here, and Gyokeres is the prime candidate to make things happen.

Injuries to Jurrien Timber and Ben White means that we’re likely to see Cristhian Mosquera at right back here, and that screams value. Whilst a more than capable defender, it’s not his natural position, and he hasn’t quite worked things out in that role as of yet.

The Spaniard averages 1.67 fouls P/90 in the Premier League, and we’ve seen a notable spike in those numbers when operating at right back. Mosquera committed two fouls, and was booked, in a 45 minute stint at right back against West Ham, and a further four in his most recent start in that role against Man City. In fact, this selection has landed in Mosquera’s last three league outings in which he’s played at least 45 minutes at right back.

Arsenal may be playing Burnley here, but given Mosquera’s recent issues on the flank I’d expect him to still be flying in with some rash challenges. The fact that he’ll be up against Jaidon Anthony won’t help matters. He’s drawn more fouls than any other Burnley player this season, averaging 1.52 P/90, and he’s more than capable of bursting forward and causing problems.

If things are tight here then Arsenal are going to need a bit of magic to unlock the deep lying Burnley defence. In that instance, Eberechi Eze is the man to focus on; he’ll see plenty of the ball in tight spaces, and he’ll be a magnet for challenges.

Eze drew four fouls when these sides met earlier this season, and given the circumstances, as well as how Burnley are likely to play, I’d expect him to draw at least two here. He averages 1.77 fouls drawn P/90, and whilst he’s not always hitting this line, he’s consistently in the thick of it at the very least. Eze has drawn a foul in each of his last eight Premier League outings, drawing two or more in four of those games.

This selection isn’t all about Eze however. In Florentino Luis, Hannibal Mejri, and Lesley Ugochukwu, Burnley have an incredibly combative trio that will commit fouls for fun. They average 1.77, 1.64, and 1.11 fouls P/90 respectively, and with Burnley likely to play compact, the three of them will be right on top of Eze, with the challenges coming in left, right, and centre.