Arsenal vs Chelsea Bet Builder Tips, Preview

With both Arsenal’s and Chelsea’s respective forward lines faltering in recent weeks, it’s difficult to pick out a standout name that could make the difference or have a decisive contribution. Palmer’s struggling, Merino isn’t a natural forward, and for me, you have to look elsewhere for a difference maker in this one. Step forward Martin Odegaard; Arsenal’s captain is an absolute joy to watch when he’s on his game, and he’s crafty enough to get into key positions and take shots on goal. He averages 1.76 shots P/90, and this selection has landed in 9 of his last 13 starts. He managed 2 shots in the reverse fixture, and crucially, he occupies an area of the pitch that Caicedo is perhaps less likely to cover.

Enzo Fernandez is the most likely direct opponent for Odegaard, and the Argentine isn’t the most defensively astute of players. Odegaard will find joy, especially if Fernandez is caught out of position. On the whole, Chelsea are just pretty questionable defensively as a unit; they concede 10.64 shots per game in the league, and outside of recent games against the likes of Leicester and Southampton, they had conceded 12, 13, 14, and 15 shots in their 4 league games prior to that. They really do lack discipline, and I think Odegaard can take advantage of that.

Despite Chelsea looking toothless of late, they’re still drawing plenty of fouls, and Jurrien Timber is one player that could get caught out here. Arsenal’s right back is a very committed defender, and he loves to try and nip in front of the opponent at every opportunity; 50/50 duels are his bread and butter, and an average of 1.20 fouls P/90 in the Premier League is hardly surprising given the way he approaches the game. Timber has committed a foul in 9 of his last 12 starts in all competitions, and with this likely to be an intense derby, another foul at the Emirates looks likely.

Chelsea could line up with any number of players on the left, but Maresca has opted to go with Cristopher Nkunku in that role in recent weeks. The Frenchman has really struggled to find his feet if I’m honest, but an average of 1.12 fouls drawn P/90 suggests he’s at least getting into dangerous positions and giving things a real go. Pedro Neto will also drift into wide areas, and his 1.31 fouls drawn P/90 will trouble Timber, especially if he doubles up with Nkunku out on the left. Keep an eye out for youngster Tyrique George as well; his minutes have been limited, but he’s incredibly exciting and very direct, it’s a battle that could yield results with Timber on tired legs later in the game.

Make no mistake, Wesley Fofana has been a huge miss for Chelsea over the last few months. The Frenchman fundamentally changes the way in which the Blues play; he’s far more aggressive than the other centre back options at the club, and has a level of athleticism that his colleagues lack. However, that level of aggression can work against Fofana. He’s committed a foul in 12 of his 13 league appearances, and whilst that blank did come against Arsenal, Chelsea are travelling to the Emirates and are in much worse form here. There will be pressure on Fofana to make an instant impact on his return to centre back, and an average of 1.65 fouls P/90 is evidence of his consistency outside of that 1 isolated blank.

This is a big game for Arsenal. They’re clear of the scrap for European football for now, but lose to Chelsea and the Blues will be just 3 points behind them; they will go for the kill, they have to against a Chelsea side that have been incredibly lacklustre of late, and they do have forwards that can cause Fofana problems. Mikel Merino is the most obvious threat, the makeshift centre forward has the physical profile to at least match Fofana, and his 1.27 fouls drawn P/90 make him one to watch. At Trossard to the mix, who draws 1.59 fouls P/90, and the problems are only likely to mount when he comes inside.

I don’t think it matters where Reece James plays here, he’s a quality operator who’s capable of creating something from nothing on the pitch. However, it can’t be ignored that the Chelsea captain has drawn 2 fouls in each of his 2 appearances as a midfielder this season, those being his last 2 games in all competitions. It’s a role that puts him in the firing line, at the heart of the midfield battle, and given how technically sound he is, it’s not surprising to see him take control of the ball and draw contact. Still, he’s drawn 1.19 fouls P/90 in the league season, with the overwhelming majority of appearances coming at right back. I’d have as much confidence in hims drawing a foul there as I would if he were to start alongside Caicedo.

One of the key things for me here is James’ physical capabilities. He’s incredibly strong, and if at right back, that should serve him particularly well against Leandro Trossard. The Belgian averages just 0.92 fouls P/90, but he’s committed 6 fouls total in his last 2 league games, and will be constantly nipping at James’ heels. If in midfield, the likes of Rice and Partey will get stuck into James from the off, and their combined 2.16 fouls P/90 should see James brought down at some point.