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Arsenal welcome Lens to the Emirates Stadium knowing that a point will be enough to secure their place in the last 16 of the Champions League. A win would guarantee them top spot with one game remaining so Mikel Arteta will be keen to get the job done so that he can potentially rest and rotate on the final matchday. Lens surprisingly beat the Gunners 2-1 in the reverse fixture, so Arsenal won’t be taking the French outfit lightly. The visitors still have every chance of qualifying themselves so this promises to be an intriguing contest.
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Arsenal vs Lens Predicted Lineups
Familiar approach for the Londoners
The Gunners have no new concerns ahead of this match. The likes of Thomas Partey and Emile Smith Rowe remain injured with Jurrien Timber out long term as well. New #1 keeper David Raya should return in between the sticks for this match with Kai Havertz vying for a place in the midfield after his winning goal vs Brentford at the weekend. We can expect the familiar 4-3-3 approach and no real surprises from Mikel Arteta.
Machado a continued absence
Lens are expected to lineup in a 3-4-2-1 formation with Elye Wahi spearheading the attack. Colombian defender Deiver Machado is injured, and attacker Morgan Guilavogui is suspended. The left wing back slot is open between Massimo Haidara and Przemyslaw Frankowski, the latter could switch from the right wing. Angelo Fulgini is another player who might push for a spot in attacking midfield.
Arsenal vs Lens Team Stats
Miserly Arsenal strong in defence
The North London outfit have impressive metrics at both ends of the field. Their defence is particularly noticeable this season averaging just 0.79 xGA per game and opponents are only having 2.08 shots on target against them in each contest on average. The Gunners have racked up a huge number of corners per game (8.77) which is a surprise considering their wide players often cut inside. Cards are usually on the low side in their fixtures with Arsenal well-disciplined at 1.62 per contest.
Lens restricting opponents well
Lens have been underachieving in front of goal this season only converting their 1.48 xG into 1.23 goals. They have badly missed Lois Openda who transferred to Leipzig in the summer. Lens have decent defensive metrics and only concede an average of one goal per game. Similar to Arsenal, they tend to restrict their opponents’ shots really well. Corners and cards have been very much on the mediocre side in Lens fixtures.
Arsenal vs Lens Shots and Shots on Target Stats
Gabriel Jesus offers most potent shooting threat
Only one player for the Gunners averages more than one shot on target per 90 minutes and that is Brazilian striker Gabriel Jesus. He is priced at 1.25 to find the target at least once and 1.25 to have 3 shots or more. Both could be options to add to an Arsenal bet builder. Lens tend to restrict shots on target quite well so it might be dangerous to look at many Arsenal players here. The trio of Gabriel Martinelli, Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka all average 0.90 or less shots on target per 90 which might ring some alarm bells.
Elye exact with his shots
Elye Wahi is the standout player for both accuracy and shots for Lens. He has impressed in converting his 3.02 shots per 90 minutes into 2.13 on target. The 1.73 odds on offer that he tests the keeper at least once could be generous. He’s 1.67 just to fire in two attempts which seems very possible as the main threat upfront. Adrien Thomasson scored against Arsenal in the reverse fixture and is 1.29 to have just one shot or more.
Arsenal vs Lens Goals and Assists Stats
Saka the standout option
The man who stands out for the hosts is Saka. He has not been quite as explosive this season but he’s a big threat for both goals and assists. He is on penalties but can easily provide a goal, the 1.83 on offer that he scores or assists could be a decent option to add to your Arsenal bet builder. Gabriel Jesus is the favourite with the bookies to score at anytime (2.38), but he just hasn’t looked in great finishing form and other bets perhaps make for greater appeal.
Socota has a sizeable appeal
Lens have lacked goals since the departure of key man Lois Openda to Leipzig in the summer. Elye Wahi is a very promising player but is still developing and perhaps doesn’t convert as many chances as he should yet. Florian Socota leads the team for both goals and assists. He is sometimes on penalty duty and plays in a range of different attacking positions that help him to provide goals. He is 4.20 to score or assist, so if you fancy Lens to get on the scoresheet he is probably going to be involved in some fashion.
Arsenal Cards and Fouls Stats
Kai with a high chance of fouling
The Gunners have been a really clean team this season and manager Mikel Arteta has overseen a much improved disciplinary performance. They only average 1.62 cards per game and only one player set to start here has more than two cards (Kai Havertz). The former Chelsea man is a bit of a unique case, being new to the team this year and eager to impress. Both he and Gabriel Jesus look like the best options in the fouls market considering their numbers. You have to back each player to have two or more fouls to find the value though at 1.62 respectively.
Lens have only drawn 2.15 cards per match from their opponents. They have been the third most fouled team in Ligue 1 and could catch Arsenal out on the counter-attack. The stats suggest both Kevin Danso and Nampalys Mendy might be the most prone to drawing fouls, but the wing backs Frankowski and Haidara could cause plenty of issues due to their pace.
Lens Cards and Fouls Stats
Salis Abdul Samed foul machine
Les Sang et Or have picked up the most cards in Ligue 1 this season and also are in the top five for fouls committed. They have several individuals who have five cards or more, Jonathan Gradit, Facundo Medina and Elye Wahi. There is a chance their tactical setup here will not be as engaging though, and they might sit back more vs a team like Arsenal. Wahi is probably the best bet for cards because he makes some poor decisions. The 4.0 odds that he goes into the book could look big. Midfielder Salis Abdul Samed could be the best option for fouls. He is 1.83 to commit two or more cautions and is their leading fouler domestically.
The player usually targeted the most for Arsenal is Bukayo Saka, who is fouled 2.17 times per 90. The likes of Haidara, Salis Samed and Medina could all find themselves vulnerable against him. Gabriel Jesus also tends to draw a lot of fouls, due to his trickery and high dribbling rate. Jesus could drift around a bit but will most likely give the entire back three some issues, with Jonathan Gradit potentially under attack the most.
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