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Arsenal vs Porto
12th March
kick off 20:00 Over 2.5 Porto Cards
Porto have averaged 3.69 cards per game on the road in the Primeira Liga.
They have seen 3+ cards in 2/3 Champions League away games and in 10/13 away games in the league so far this season.
Gabriel to have 1+ shots Four of Arsenal’s 7 shots in the first leg came from dead balls, including a headed shot from Gabriel.
Gabriel has now had at least 1 shot in 6 of his last 7 games in all competitions.
Pepe to have 1+ shot Pepe had a shot in the first leg, and averages 1.61 shots per 90 across the entire season.
He has had at least 1 shot in each of his last 4 games, and in 10 of his last 12.
Jakub Kiwior to commit 1+ fouls Kiwior commits 1.02 fouls per 90, and has committed a foul in five of his last six Arsenal starts.
He committed 5 fouls in the first leg.
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It’s been a good week for the Gunners, as Kai Havertz’s late winner at home to Brentford gave them a 2-1 win, which was good enough for top spot after title rivals Liverpool and Man City drew 1-1 at Anfield.
Their only recent blip has come in this competition however, as they fell to a 1-0 defeat thanks to a last-gasp wonder strike from Galeno in Porto. Mikel Arteta’s side find themselves in the uncomfortable position of needing to overturn the deficit if they are to progress to the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time since 2010.
Porto are also in great form though, now unbeaten in six games and winning five of those six. They smashed Benfica 5-0 at home two weeks ago to knock their fierce rivals off top spot in the Primeira Liga and showed in the first leg that they are more than able to compete at this level.
Everything seems to be going right for Arsenal at the minute so expect the Emirates crowd to be right up for this one as they witness their first Champions League knockout football in seven years.
It should be a great game to watch and even better, whilst researching this tie and delving into the data, we’ve discovered plenty of intriguing betting angles too. If you’re planning on having a bet here, read on for our heavily-researched Arsenal v Porto bet builder tips.
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Arsenal vs Porto Predicted Lineups
Gabriel Jesus set to return for the Gunners
Jesus has missed much of his Arsenal career through injury so far, but Arteta will be pleased to have the option of using the Brazilian in the run-in. Kai Havertz’s performances through the middle suggest that Jesus may take up a spot on the left-wing, as he has for Man City and Brazil in the past. This will see Leandro Trossard drop to the bench, with no changes expected to the rest of the team that started against Brentford on Saturday.
No rest for Porto
Manager Sergio Conceicao decided not to rotate his team at the weekend as they faced Portimonense, partly as they were playing on Friday night so had an extra day’s worth of rest heading into this game. Arsenal fans should be familiar with the side as it is expected to be unchanged from that which started the first leg. Pepe will break his own record (set in the first leg) of being the oldest outfield player to feature in a Champions League knockout tie as he captains the same XI here at the Emirates.
Arsenal vs Porto Team Stats
Expect dominance on the corner front for the hosts
The first leg saw Arsenal take 10 corners to just one from Porto. The Gunners have taken the second-most corners of any Premier League side this season, averaging 7.64 per game. This strong average is even further boosted when Arsenal play at the Emirates, now having taken over nine corners in four of their last six, and only failing to clear six corners once, against Liverpool. The first leg saw Arsenal dominate the ball with 64% possession, so they should rack up a solid corner tally again here. They have taken six or more corners in 11 of 14 home league games this season and have taken eight or more in nine of 14. Backing them to have over 6.5 corners at 1.57 looks a very solid play here.
Porto much more card-happy on the road
Arsenal may have seen more cards in the first leg (three bookings to Porto’s two), but Porto’s Champions League campaign so far has seen them be much more susceptible to bookings when playing outside of Portugal. They have averaged just under three cards per game on the road in Europe, whilst in their domestic league, they have seen over 2.5 cards in 10 of their 13 away fixtures, averaging a mighty 3.69 cards per game. They can be backed to make it three out of four Champions League away games, and 13 out of 17 away games this season in which they have been shown over 2.5 cards at an excellent price of 1.80.
Arsenal vs Porto Shots and shots on target stats
Set pieces could provide a nice outsider pick here
Arsenal mustered just seven shots in the first leg, but four of them did come from set pieces. With Arsenal likely to dominate possession, territory and the corner battle, there should be plenty of opportunities for the Gunners to get the ball into the box, and that leads us to Gabriel Magalhaes. The Brazilian centre back has taken 0.95 shots per 90 this season, with 0.37 shots on target per 90. Recently these numbers have risen drastically, however, as he has taken a shot in six of his last seven games, notching a shot on target in four of these seven. Backing Gabriel for a shot at 1.30 looks a nice odds booster, whilst backing him for a shot on target at 3.10 is a worthy longshot option.
Back Pepe for shots
Porto’s Brazilian Pepe is seriously undervalued in the shots markets. The midfielder has had a shot in each of his last four games, and in 10 of his last 12 games in all competitions, including one shot in the first leg of this game. He can be backed to have at least one shot here at 1.53, much better value than any other Porto attacker, and having scored two goals in his last two games, Pepe should be full of confidence heading into this one.
Arsenal vs Porto Goals and Assists Stats
Kai Havertz is in full flow right now
Havertz’s move to striker was enforced by injuries but has proven to be a masterstroke from Arteta. The German has six goal contributions in his last five games in all competitions, only failing to score or assist in the first leg of this tie as Arsenal drew a blank. Havertz has now scored in four straight domestic games, as well as picking up two assists, so backing him to score or assist in this must-win tie at 1.91 looks an excellent option.
Galeno to repeat first leg heroics?
Brazilian left-winger Galeno lit up the first leg with an incredible goal to seal the win for Porto in the 94th minute. He arrives for the second leg in sensational form, having racked up eight goal contributions in just four games. He also loves these European nights, having scored or assisted in four of the six Champions League ties in which he has featured for Porto, including in each of his last three CL starts. Incredibly, despite his recent form and the trouble Porto posed Arsenal in the first leg, Galeno sits at 5/1 to score or assist here, giving those considering a longer odds bet builder something to strongly consider.
Arsenal Cards and Fouls Stats
Jakub Kiwior an obvious pick for fouls
One of only three Arsenal players to average more than a foul per 90, Kiwior is still heavily undervalued by the bookies on these markets. Since being thrust into the starting XI against West Ham, Kiwior has committed at least one foul in five of his six starts, including an enormous five against Porto in the first leg. He looks set to reprise his battle with Francisco Conceicao here so backing him to commit a foul at 1.53 looks a no-brainer.
Evanilson to win even more fouls
Topping the fouls won chart for Porto, Evanilson averages an impressive 3.48 fouls won per 90. The Brazilian was fouled three times in the first leg and has now been fouled 2+ times in 18 of his last 20 starts for Porto in all competitions. Evanilson will be martialled by Gabriel Magalhaes, who commits 0.91 fouls per 90, the fifth-highest amongst all Arsenal players. Both Gabriel and centre back partner William Saliba committed two fouls in the first leg, so backing Evanilson to win 2+ fouls at 1.25 looks like a banker, whilst backing him to win 3+ at 1.83 is an intriguing option worth considering.
Porto Cards and Fouls Stats
Solid value on Varela
Alan Varela will be a key part of the midfield battle here, going up against Jorginho. Porto’s Argentine midfielder has committed a foul in each of the last eight starts for the Portuguese side and has a seasonal average of 1.69 fouls per 90, the third-highest in this Porto side. Jorginho, his opposite number draws the fourth-most fouls for Arsenal, winning 1.48 fouls per 90. Varela committed a foul in the first leg, meaning he has now fouled in each of his last three European games. He can be backed to commit another foul here at 1.25.
Nice value on Jesus fouls
Gabriel Jesus draws more fouls than any other Arsenal player, winning 2.13 per 90. With set pieces being a big opportunity for Arsenal to get back into this tie, he will be more than happy to take the contact and go down in good positions here. With left-sided players winning a combined three fouls in the first leg for Arsenal, he should be able to do so at least a couple of times here. Jesus has won two or more fouls in each of his last four starts and has won a foul in eight straight games for Arsenal despite starting only five. He can be backed to win two fouls here at 1.67, a very nice price considering his record.
