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Arsenal vs PSG
1st October
kick off 20:00 Both Teams to Score Over 1.5 Arsenal Cards Over 3.5 PSG Corners Jurrien Timber to commit 1+ fouls
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Leg 1: Both Teams to Score
Arsenal’s defence is one of the finest in Europe, but they have now gone three games without a clean sheet in all competitions.
They may have opened the season with four clean sheets in five games, but the underlying data suggests they have been slightly fortunate to do so. Across their seven league and Champions League games in this campaign, they have held their opponents to under 1.0 xG just twice, against Wolves and Tottenham.
PSG have seen both teams to score land much more frequently in their seven games, scoring in all seven and conceding at least once in five. The visitors have been electric in an attacking sense to start the season, scoring three or more times in five of their seven games, but a leaky defence means they will struggle to keep Arsenal out here.
The Gunners will also need to be on top form to prevent their visitors from scoring here, and with two formidable attacking units lining up against each other, goals would not be a surprise.
Leg 2: Over 1.5 Arsenal Cards
There has been much talk about Arsenal and their ‘dark arts’ since the 2-2 draw against Man City at the Etihad just over a week ago. It is clear that Arsenal’s game plan involves a willingness to commit tactical fouls and to employ time-wasting strategies to protect narrow leads.
In what is set to be one of their toughest tests of the Champions League league phase it will not be a surprise to see similar tactics come into play here. The Gunners have averaged 3.50 yellow cards per game in the Premier League this season, the most of any side in the division.
Excluding their EFL Cup clash with League One side Bolton, Arsenal have now seen at least two yellow cards in six of their seven games this season, including all six Premier League clashes.
PSG have seen their opponents pick up at least two cards in all seven of their competitive fixtures to date in 2024/25, with six of these seven games seeing their opponents booked three or more times. Last time out in this competition, Girona saw three bookings dished out when they travelled to face the Parisian side.
Leg 3: Over 3.5 PSG Corners
PSG have hit this line in six of their seven games in Ligue 1 and the Champions League so far this season. They are currently averaging 6.29 corners per game in all competitions and look like they could run well above this line in what is likely to be a competitive affair.
Having made it the semi-finals of the Champions League last season, PSG played 12 games, of which 11 saw them take at least four corners. They failed to do so just once, away to Dortmund in the first leg of their semi final.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have been giving up plenty of corners this season, their opponents averaging 4.57 corners per game in the Premier League and Champions League. Of their seven opponents in those competitions, only Wolves and Leicester have not won at least four corners, with Brighton, Tottenham and Man City all taking at least seven corners when facing the Gunners.
Arsenal also allowed exactly four corners in their last game in this competition, their 0-0 draw away to Atalanta.
lEG 4: Jurrien Timber to commit 1+ Fouls
Arsenal’s right-back slot is likely to be occupied by Jurrien Timber, with Ben White expected to miss out thanks to a knee issue that has kept the English defender out of Arsenal’s last two games.
Timber has been a consistent fouler to date this season, committing a foul in five of his six starts. Timber has featured at right back for at least some of the game in three of his six starts for Arsenal, fouling four times across those three games.
The Netherlands international has fouled twice in games against Brighton, Tottenham, and Man City already this season, whilst only three likely Arsenal starters can boast a higher foul per 90 rate in the Premier League than Timber’s 1.40, those being Riccardo Calafiori, Thomas Partey and Kai Havertz.
Timber will be faced with two players who are extremely proficient in winning fouls, with Bradley Barcola and Nino Mendes operating down PSG’s left flank. In Ligue 1 so far this season, they have won 0.71 and 0.22 fouls per 90 respectively. Mendes won three fouls against Girona in matchday 1 of the Champions League, and has won two or more fouls in each of his Ligue 1 starts this season.
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