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Aston Villa vs Ajax
14th March
kick off 20:00 Over 2.5 goals
Both sides average over two goals per game and despite the 0-0 draw in the first leg both teams should lean on their attack forces here.
Ollie Watkins 1+ Shots on TargetVilla’s main man upfront averages well over one shot on target per 90.
Ollie Watkins to score or assistWatkins is lo longer just a goalscorer but has assists in his locker as well. Let’s play it safe and back him to score or assist here.
Brian Brobbey to have 1+ Shots on TargetBrobbey averages 1.52 shots on target per 90 mins and Ajax will get some opportunities on the break. There’s a chance he might be on penalty duty and he looks like a massive price just to simply hit the target.
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The first leg ended in a surprising 0-0 draw when everyone expected an explosive tie. It means we have a tight-looking match here at Villa Park with both teams believing in their chances of progression.
Villa suffered a damaging 4-0 home defeat to Spurs at the weekend so will be eager to bounce back.
Ajax continue to ensure a miserable domestic season where they aren’t even in the top five of the Eredivisie. It’s fair to say their whole season is on the line in the West Midlands.
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Aston Villa vs Ajax predicted lineups
Konsa suspended for the hosts
Villa have two suspensions here with both Ezri Konsa and Nicola Zaniolo ruled out. They have long term injuries to Emi Buendia, Boubacar Kamara and Tyrone Mings. Villa should line up in a 4-2-3-1 formation and be at full strength. The back four should consist of Alex Moreno, Pau Torres, Diego Carlos and Matty Cash.
Berghuis and Berwijn injury blows for Ajax
Tristan Gooijer is suspended for Ajax after getting sent off in the first leg. Steven Berghuis is injured and unlikely to feature. Ajax have doubts surrounding Steven Bergwijn who has been out of action for a few weeks, but he could make the bench. The Dutch side are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1 system and employ three central defenders, led by young starlet Jorrel Hato.
Aston Villa vs Ajax team stats
Villa attack merits respect
Despite not scoring in either of their last two competitive games, you can’t deny that Aston Villa carry a significant offensive threat this season. They average 2.11 goals per game and have legitimate metrics to back it up. The Villans have a high corner average themselves and cards have been racking up in their fixtures and over five per game on average.
Ajax defence has been their achilies heel
Ajax usually have goals in them but their defence has been a major concern this year. They’ve conceded a massive 1.80 goals per game and a huge problem is that more than half of the shots they’ve conceded have been on target. Ajax have given up too many big chances this season. They are another team with high corner numbers but their discipline must be commended picking up an extremely lean 1.20 cards in each contest.
Aston Villa vs Ajax shots and shots on target stats
Ollie should be on target
The three obvious players to look out for are Ollie Watkins, Moussa Diaby and Douglas Luiz. Watkins is a measly 1.17 to have one or more shots on target but that looks like a banker. Luiz is 1.91 in the same market which is tempting considering he’s on penalty duty. Diaby and possibly Matty Cash could be backed in the shots market if you get the right line.
Brobbey offers the biggest threat
Ajax do average over 16 shots per game although they might be limited with their opportunities at Villa Park. Attacker Brian Brobbey is a fast and physical threat though who will surely get some opportunities on the counter-attack. He averages 1.52 shots on target per 90 minutes and can be backed as big as 1.91 to test Emi Martinez in the Villa net. He looks like the best option in the Ajax shots market.
Aston Villa vs Ajax goals and assists stats
Douglas Luiz overpriced
Ollie Watkins has become more than just a goalscorer but more of a complete forward assisting a significant number of assists to his game this season. Watkins can be backed at 1.83 to score anytime or 1.57 to score or assist which is the safer play. With Douglas Luiz likely on penalty-taking duty then the 3.50 for him to score anytime looks like a very generous price. He has nearly double-digit goals for the season so must be considered.
Brobbey Dazzler to shine?
Brian Brobbey is again the standout player for Ajax whilst they are set to be without the likes of Berghuis and Bergwijn. Brobbey has amassed 16 goals and also weighed in with 7 assists. If Ajax do get on the scoresheet then he will more than likely be involved. Taking him in the ‘to score or assist’ market is probably wise if you fancy him to go well at odds of 2.88.
Aston Villa Cards and Fouls Stats
Midfielders offer the best foul chance
Villa are no strangers to cards with the likes of John McGinn, Douglas Luiz and Matty Cash all racking up their fair share of bookings this season. Villa don’t have a particularly high foul rate though and are likely to command plenty of the ball here so it might not be the best specific match in which to target their players in this market.
Midfielder Sivert Mannsverk is fouled nearly twice per game which adds weight to the likes of John McGinn and Douglas Luiz potentially fouling in this game. Brian Brobbey is unsurprisingly a foul magnet too and must be watched closely.
Ajax Cards and Fouls Stats
Squeaky clean Ajax have low card count
Ajax are a very clean team and don’t average many cards per game. This is a different competition but it’s not usually in the genetics of Dutch clubs to be particularly dirty. They are going to come under pressure from Villa but without significant statistics to back it up then it’s probably unwise to back any Ajax players in the fouls market.
Villa are the sort of side who draw several cards from their opponents with wind-up merchant John McGinn a clear standout candidate in midfield. He’s fouled twice per 90 minutes on average so could put the likes of Sivert Mannsverk and Jordan Henderson under some pressure. A lot of eyes will be on the former Liverpool man here so at odds of 1.44 he could be considered to commit at least one offence.
