Aston Villa are hoping to join Brighton and Hove Albion as Premier League clubs playing in Europe next season and the West Midlands outfit will do just that with victory on the final day.
Villa have had a miraculous rise under the stewardship of Unai Emery, the ex-Arsenal boss has proven himself on these shores after a number of excellent spells in Spain, including plenty of European trophies. They will fancy their chances against a Brighton side that secured their place in next season’s Europa League in midweek.
We’ve completed the research and provided all the data below in this stats pack, which you can follow to build your own Villa vs Brighton bet builder. You can click here to find out more information on how to use our stats packs.
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VILLA VS BRIGHTON PREDICTED LINEUPS
Emery to go full-strength in final push for Europe
Unai Emery has quickly built a very clear structure at Villa that involves deep build-up play and clear pressing avenues. Selection consistency has been pivotal to their impressive form and Emery is unlikely to make too many changes for their final day fixture, Ashley Young the most likely contender to return after being rested last weekend.
De Zerbi may mix it up for final day
With European football secured, Roberto De Zerbi could decide to try a few things. However, he made a number of changes in midweek for their draw with City and could revert to a more familiar XI here with Alexis Mac Allister, Evan Ferguson and Joel Veltman amongst those brought off the bench for that encounter to replace less familiar names. Lewis Dunk was recently called up to the England squad and should step back in too.
VILLA VS BRIGHTON TEAM STATS
Villa overperforming defensively
While Ollie Watkins continues to get the headlines for his hugely improved form under Emery, it’s actually Villa’s defence that has been pivotal to their rise, conceding 0.16 goals less per game than expected. That has been important for a side who concede better chances than they create on average and also concede a high number of corners. They’re not afraid to pick up a card but draw plenty – they are the most fouled team in the division.
Brighton finally matching phenomenal numbers
The one thing always said about Brighton was that their underlying numbers were fantastic but they couldn’t replicate that in the final third. The handbrake has been off this year and the goals have followed, averaging nearly two goals per game in their rise to Europe. Their dominance also shows in the high number of corners they earn and the impressive cards they draw from opponents – nearly 2.5 per game.
VILLA VS BRIGHTON SHOTS AND SHOTS ON TARGET STATS
McGinn trying his luck for Villa
Ollie Watkins is the main man for Villa and his numbers show that, averaging nearly 2.5 shots per 90 and comfortably more than a shot on target. His numbers have slowed down recently but that has come as a result of playing three of the big six – he will fancy his chances against a Brighton side with little to play for. Elsewhere, John McGinn could play on the right-side of midfield – he has had two or more shots in six of seven matches playing that position.
Brighton’s attack not afraid to shoot
Perhaps Brighton’s improvement in the final third has come from simply shooting more at the opposition goal – Julio Enciso, Evan Ferguson, Alexis Mac Allister and Kaoru Mitoma are all averaging more than than two shots per 90. Ferguson is the golden boy of Brighton and Ireland and his return from injury has led to at least one shot on target in four of five league starts. While Paraguayan youngster Enciso has had two or more shots in his last six starts and a shot on target in four of those.
VILLA VS BRIGHTON GOALS AND ASSISTS STATS
Watkins having his best Premier League campaign
Ollie Watkins actually comes into this game without a goal in his last six matches but this has still been his best Premier League season with 20 goal contributions and firmly establishing himself as the main man for the Villains. Jacob Ramsey is hoping to follow Watkins in earning England recognition and he is going the right way about it with 11 goal contributions from 30 starts aged 21.
Mac Allister into double figures for Brighton
The Seagulls are soaring and a key part of that is Argentinian World Cup winner Alexis Mac Allister, who has reached double figures for the season despite spending it switching between deep and attacking midfield positions. His numbers will surely be overtaken by Evan Ferguson next season, the 18-year-old is averaging 0.67 goals per 90 minutes.
VILLA VS BRIGHTON PASSING STATS
Villa unfussy about possession
Aston Villa aren’t too fussed whether they have to spend the game with or without the ball thanks to their high press and transitional playing style and a game against Brighton is likely to see them go without – they managed 43, 48 and 34% of the ball against Man United, Spurs and Liverpool in recent weeks. Avoiding passing metrics is recommended in your Villa vs Brighton bet builder.
Brighton dominant with the ball
Playing against Man City at home brought out a different version of Man City, a version that required them to spend larger portions of the game without the ball. They are otherwise dominant and with Lewis Dunk and Levi Colwill at centre back, they will be more than comfortable building play from deep and avoiding the Villa press with composed play.
VILLA CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Captain McGinn happy to get dirty
John McGinn is Aston Villa captain and he leads by example in their attempts to disrupt the opposition, racking up over a foul per 90, including the committing of a foul in eight of his last ten starts and two or more in five of those. Ollie Watkins is also unafraid to do the dirty work, committing a foul in six of eight matches, worth noting for your bet builder given he will spend plenty of time chasing Brighton’s centre backs.
A reason to back a Watkins foul is because he will likely cover the left-hand channel where Joel Veltman will reside, the full back gets fouled 1.6 times per 90 minutes and has been in each of his last six appearances. Elsewhere, Julio Enciso is Brighton’s most fouled player, unsurprising given the ridiculous volume of dribbles he attempts. He has been fouled in his last five matches and twice or more in three of those.
Villa vs Brighton key matchups
Douglas Luiz vs Julio Enciso
Jacob Ramsey vs Joel Veltman
John McGinn vs Moises Caicedo
BRIGHTON CARDS AND FOULS STATS
Mitoma a dark horse for Brighton
Kauro Mitoma has the air of a player who is lawfully good but he isn’t afraid to do what is needed for the sake of the Brighton press, committing a foul in his last four starts and at least one in eight of his last 11. Behind him, Pervis Estupinan lives up to the South American stereotype and has committed a foul in nine of his last 11 matches.
John McGinn could potentially be playing down the flank and the Scotsman is one of the most fouled players in the Premier League, being fouled in each of his last ten starts and three or more times in six of his last eight. Ezri Konsa is one of the most fouled centre backs in the division thanks to his willingness to drive out of defence with the ball and he hass been fouled in his last ten starts and at least twice in seven of those.
Villa vs Brighton Key matchups
Moises Caicedo vs John McGinn
Joel Veltman vs Jacob Ramsey
Alexis Mac Allister vs Boubacar Kamara
Aston Villa vs Brighton Bet Builder tips and picks of the pack
Two teams that have arguably overachieved this season, and their meeting today presents us with some great bet builder opportunities. I’ve collated my thoughts below, and you can add to them using the stats above.
Aston Villa vs Brighton
Villa concede average of 5.62 corners per game
Brighton average 6.22 corners per game
Over 3.5 corners in Brighton’s last 2 matches and 9 of last 12
Villa collect 2.08 cards per game
Villa collected 2 or more cards in 5 of last 6 matches
Brighton drawing 2.41 cards per game from opponents
Brighton drawn 2 or more cards in last 4 matches not against Man City and Arsenal
Mitoma commits 1.14 fouls per 90 minutes
Mitoma committed a foul in last 6 starts
Young fouled in 8 of last 9 starts
McGinn averages 1.28 fouls per 90 minutes
McGinn committed a foul in 8 of 10 starts