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Aston Villa vs Everton
14th September
kick off 17:30 Aston Villa to Win Aston Villa to commit 11+ Fouls Jacob Ramsey to have 2+ Shots Lamare Bogarde to commit 1+ Fouls
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Leg 1: Aston Villa to win
Aston Villa have not been entirely convincing so far this season, but they have still come away with two wins from three, failing to win only once, against Arsenal. Unai Emery’s side dispatched a strong West Ham side 2-1 in their opening game on the road, before showing some serious grit to battle past a spirited Leicester side, also away from home, in their last outing.
They beat Everton 4-0 at Villa Park last season and will be confident of another win here, with Everton’s start to the season being horrendous. The Toffees have lost all three games so far this season, the worst of the lot being a 3-2 loss to Bournemouth at home, having been 2-0 up with just three minutes of the 90 to play.
They were comfortably beaten 3-0 by Brighton at Goodison Park before being thrashed 4-0 on the road by Tottenham in their second game. There have been little to no bright spots for Everton to date, and a price of 1.50 for Villa to win at home against one of the league’s weakest sides looks extremely generous here.
Leg 2: Aston Villa to commit 11+ fouls
The Villans have been racking up a fair few fouls this season, currently sitting fifth in the Premier League for fouls committed per game, at 13.3. In their three games to date, they have committed at least 11 fouls twice, hitting this line exactly against West Ham, and then absolutely crushing it against Leicester, fouling 21 times.
The only game in which they did not clear this line was against Arsenal, where they made eight fouls. This is not too concerning however, with the Gunners having drawn the fourth-fewest fouls of any Premier League side so far this season.
Going back to last season, the Toffees won at least 11 fouls in four of their last five games. That trend has continued into 2024/25 with Everton winning 11 or more fouls in two of their three games so far this season. The only exception came against a Brighton side who have committed the third-fewest fouls in the league this season, so those numbers should be higher against a Villa side that like to get stuck in.
Leg 3: Jacob Ramsey to have 2+ shots
Jacob Ramsey looks set to make his first start of the new season here and we like the look of him in the shots market here. The young forward can be backed to have two or more shots at 1.57, a very appealing price.
Ramsey has now taken two shots in each of his last five Premier League starts, all of which came last season. He made eight starts in total for Aston Villa in the league, taking two shots in six of these games.
This season, he is averaging 2.31 shots per 90, with only Amadou Onana averaging more than his total for Villa. He has been subbed on in all three games, and on each occasion he has had exactly one shot, so the extra minutes here should provide plenty of time for him to get a shot away. We would expect Villa to dominate the game and take plenty of shots against Everton here. The Toffees have allowed 13.3 shots per game so far this season, but those numbers have only got worse as the games have gone by, having allowed 17 last time out against Bournemouth
Leg 4: Lamare Bogarde to commit 1+ fouls
Lamare Bogarde made only his second appearance for the Aston Villa first team when he started and completed 79 minutes at right-back in the game against Leicester. He had a busy first Premier League start, racking up three fouls and winning two fouls in a game that became a real battle.
That sees him averaging 3.33 fouls per 90, and though we expect that number to come down with more appearances, it was a promising start, and one which suggests a foul-free showing here is unlikely.
His matchup here is new Everton signing Iliman Ndiaye, who won a foul in his first Premier League start, the 3-2 loss to Bournemouth before the international break. Ndiaye also won a foul in his only other Everton start, the win over Doncaster in the EFL Cup.
Including his time in France with Marseille last season, the Senegal international has now won at least one foul in 16 of his last 22 starts in club football. Bogarde looks like he could have his work cut out and with the youngster still adjusting to life at this level, at least one foul seems highly likely.
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Aston Villa vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa vs Everton Team Stats
Aston Villa vs Everton shots and shots on target stats
Aston Villa vs Everton goals and assists stats
Aston Villa CARDS AND FOULS stats
eVERTON cards and fouls stats
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