Aston Villa will be looking to take another step closer to securing a European place for the 2023-24 campaign when they host a Fulham side looking to cut the gap on their West Midlands counterparts to three points knowing they still have a game in hand. The hosts will be looking to enact some revenge having succumbed to a 3-0 defeat that spelt the end of Steven Gerrard’s reign in October’s reverse fixture.
This is shaping up to be a great game for a bet builder, and so I’ve put together a number of key stats for tonight’s matchup to help you with your selections. Unsure as to how to get the most out of the numbers below? Then check out my Stats Pack Guide for a helping hand.
Confirmed Lineups
Unai Emery has found consistent selection at Villa and it helped them to seven wins and two draws from their last nine, including four wins in a row at home. The return of Leander Dendoncker has helped them to a 3-0 victory over third place Newcastle United and a draw at Brentford so is likely to retain his place. It means John McGinn is likely to start out wide again.
Fulham come into this having won their last two and they’ve played the same ten players in both of those games. The main selection dilemma for Marco Silva centres around the focal point in attack with Vincius Junior, Daniel James and Bobby Reid all starting as Fulham’s number 9 in the absence of Aleksandar Mitrovic.
Team Stats
Aston Villa have had an up-and-down campaign, or rather down-then-up given their early struggles under Gerrard and subsequent turnaround under multi-Europa League winning coach Emery. The Spaniard’s positive impact shows in the West Midlands outfit averaging 1.7 goals and conceding just 1.25 since his arrival.
Across the campaign as a whole, there hasn’t been a huge amount between xG, shots and shots on target for and against. They do tend to rack up less cards and corners than their opposition, however.
At the third time of asking, Fulham are getting things right after promotion. Despite their lofty position, their numbers aren’t incredible, slightly outscoring their opposition but worse off in their xG, shots and shots on target numbers.
Like their midweek opponents, Fulham allow the opposition more corners, averaging 4.9 per 90 for in comparison to 5.39 conceded. They are more than happy to rack up the cards, receiving 2.35 per game compared to 1.61 for their opposition.
Player Shots and Shots on Target
It’s little surprise that Watkins stands out for Villa in the goalscoring charts given the number of efforts on goal he has – 2.57 shots per 90 minutes played with an impressive 1.42 on target. John McGinn doesn’t mind an effort on goal, averaging 1.42 efforts per game with minimal accuracy. Jacob Ramsey and Douglas Luiz also manage one shot a game per 90.
Fulham may lack match-winning numbers in the absence of Mitrovic but it’s not for a lack of trying with Harry Wilson and Andreas Pereira both averaging over two shots per 90 and Willian reaching 1.74. Their problem is accuracy, none managing over a shot on target per game. Bobby Reid could start but his numbers are even less impressive, averaging 1.09 shots per 90 and less than 0.4 on target.
Player Goals and Assists
Ollie Watkins has become the main man for Aston Villa, reaching 20 goal involvements for the season during their victory over Newcastle United – 80% of those have come since Emery took charge. The England striker is certainly relied upon by his team-mates – Douglas Luiz and Jacob Ramsey are their next highest scorers with four apiece.
Like Villa, Fulham are heavily reliant on their first-choice striker. With Mitrovic unavailable, it’s up to others to step up. Andreas Pereira has four goals and six assists to his name playing just off the main striker. Otherwise, goals and assists have been hard to come by, the experienced Willian next in line with six goal involvements for the season.
Player passes
Villa have enjoyed a lot of the ball since the World Cup, having more possession in 12 of their last 15 matches, the outliers being the top two and Chelsea. However, those numbers are at their highest when facing those involved in the battle for relegation so expect to see attempted passing numbers in line with the statistics below on Tuesday.
Fulham prefer to see more of the ball in games but are realistic in their ambitions, happy to cede possession away from home when taking on teams above them in the table. Centre-backs Tim Ream and Tosin Adarabioyo see most of the ball for Fulham. Robinson is interesting here, averaging 45.7 across the season and attempting 50+ passes in six of his last nine games.
Aston Villa Cards and Fouls
Villa don’t commit as many fouls as they draw from the opposition but their stylistic approach of sitting off the opposition then pressing as a unit as the ball moves forward has led to some midfield aggression with Luiz, McGinn and Ramsey all committing over 1.25 fouls per game.
Buendia is another to watch out for – he has committed 1.75 fouls per 90 in the Premier League and will start just off Ollie Watkins here.
Harry Wilson comfortably tops this list and any concerns about reduced game time should be allayed given he has been fouled 12 times in his last three league starts. He will be supported by Kenny Tete down the right so Villa’s left-hand side will have their work cut out.
Villa’s preference for pressing when the ball moves into midfield may see Joao Palhinha draw a couple more fouls under pressure.
Match-Ups to watch
Alex Moreno v Harry Wilson
Emiliano Buendia v Joao Palhinha
Jacob Ramsey v Kenny Tete
Fulham Cards and Fouls
Joao Palhinha likes to get his hands dirty, picking up an impressive 11 cards at the base of the Fulham midfield. He’s not alone, Fulham’s enjoyment for collecting cards seeing Pereira, Tete and Robinson also pick up seven or more. Tete isn’t afraid to commit a foul and will have his work cut out here against McGinn and Ramsey.
Aston Villa are one of the most fouled teams in the division and it shows in the graphic, each listed player being fouled more than one per 90. McGinn and Ramsey are expected to line up out wide here and are fouled over 1.5 times per 90 – McGinn has been fouled nine times in his last three appearances. Luiz has been fouled in 25 of his 30 league starts.
Match-Ups to watch
Kenny Tete v Jacob Ramsey
Antonee Robinson v John McGinn
Andreas Pereira v Douglas Luiz
My Bet Builder Picks of the Pack
A huge game when it comes to Villa’s hopes for European football, but Fulham certainly won’t make it easy. There are some great bet builder selections out there, and you can check out my thoughts below.
Aston Villa vs Fulham
24th April
kick off 20:00 Ollie Watkins 1+ shot on target
Ollie Watkins has 2.57 shots per game of which 1.42 are on target
Watkins has had a shot on target in 11 of last 13 matches
Fulham give up 4.97 shots on target per game
Fulham over 1.5 cardsReferee Thomas Bramall gives 3 cards per game on average
Fulham receive 2.35 cards per game
Villa draw 2.22 cards per game
Fulham received 2 or more cards in last 7 Premier League away matches
Alex Moreno 1+ foulsAlex Moreno commits 1.45 fouls per 90
Harry Wilson fouled 2.68 times per 90
Harry Wilson fouled 12 times in last three Premier League starts
Jacob Ramsey 1+ foulsRamsey commits 1.32 fouls per 90
Ramsey committed a foul in last six league starts
Kenny Tete fouled 1.67 times per 90
